Donald Trump and the Houthis

By Elliott Abrams

Friday, January 03, 2025

 

For years, Yemen’s Houthi terrorists have been attacking U.S. Navy ships while the United States has been playing defense. Last July, CENTCOM commander general Erik Kurilla warned of the dangers our ships and sailors face. The Wall Street Journal reported this:

 

The top U.S. Middle East commander recently advised in a classified letter to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin that military operations in the region are “failing” to deter Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and that a broader approach is needed. . . .”

 

As recently as last month, in December 2024, CENTCOM reported on more attacks:

 

The Houthis launched at least eight one-way uncrewed aerial systems, five anti-ship ballistic missiles and three anti-ship cruise missiles at USS Spruance (DDG-111) and USS Stockdale (DDG-106). . . . This is the second time the two independently-deployed destroyers have come under Houthi fire. The Houthis also launched an attack in late September against the two destroyers, as well as USS Indianapolis (LCS-17).

 

Kurilla’s letter comes after hundreds of “Houthi attacks” — except that these are actually Iranian attacks on the U.S. Navy, with Iranian missiles delivered by their Houthi proxy.

 

As the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) stated in February 2024,

 

Analysis confirms that Houthi forces have employed various Iranian-origin missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles against military and civilian targets throughout the region. . . . Since 2014, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force (IRGC-QF) has provided the Houthis a growing arsenal of sophisticated weapons and training. Iran’s aid has enabled the Houthis to conduct a campaign of missile and UAV attacks against commercial shipping in the Red Sea since November 2023.

 

DIA’s report, entitled “Iran Enabling Houthi Attacks Across the Middle East,” states that:

 

Since at least 2015, Iran has provided the Houthis a diverse arsenal of short- and medium-range ballistic and cruise missiles, including anti-ship variants, enabling Houthi attacks against targets on land and sea. Iranian ballistic and cruise missiles allow the Houthis to attack targets at different vectors.

 

The real question is why General Kurilla’s letter did not spark more action against the source of the Houthis’ weapons, which is Iran. Kurilla told the Senate Armed Services Committee last March that there was no way to degrade the Houthis’ arsenal if Iran could simply rebuild it:

 

We also want to degrade the Houthis’ offensive capability, anti-ship ballistic missiles, anti-ship cruise missiles, and the myriad of other systems that they are using, all provided by Iran. But to degrade that capability means nothing if Iran is able to resupply them. So, we have an effort to deny Iran the ability to resupply them, and that’s where we need more of an international and a whole of government approach to be able to stop Iran from resupplying the Houthis.

 

The Biden administration has, in recent weeks, stepped up attacks on the Houthis — but has done nothing to penalize their supplier. As of January 20, that is the question facing President Trump. What will be done to prevent Iranian resupply of the Houthis? Will Houthi attacks on U.S. Navy ships with Iranian-supplied weapons be permitted to continue?

 

President Trump faced a similar issue in September 2020 after Iranian proxies stepped up their attacks on U.S. troops in western Iraq and in Syria during the summer. Americans were wounded but not killed. The Trump administration then advised Iran, through multiple channels, that if an Iranian proxy group killed an American in one of these attacks, the U.S. response would be directly against Iran — not only the proxy. Iran itself would pay a price. After that warning, such attacks in the last quarter of 2020 declined by about 90 percent. During the Biden administration, they rose again: For example, in the single year between October 2023 and November 2024, there were 125 attacks in Syria and 79 in Iraq. And on January 28, 2024, three Americans were killed in a drone attack on an American outpost just across the Syrian border in Jordan.

 

The right path forward for the new Trump administration is not to give in to Iranian and Houthi attacks by removing our troops from Iraq and Syria, nor by removing the U.S. Navy from international waters in the Middle East — the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab. It is to repeat the Trump method of 2020: Let Iran clearly know that if an American is killed or wounded, or a Navy ship hit, by a Houthi weapon supplied by Iran, the United States will respond directly against Iran.

 

As General Kurilla said, we should be seeking to interdict the supply of such weapons, but that is not enough; that effort will never be 100 percent effective. A better way forward is deterring Iran from supplying the Houthis by making Iran pay for any damage done. Let’s stop playing Tehran’s game by allowing Iran to hide behind proxies. President Trump should make it clear that if Iranian-supplied weapons hit us, the United States will strike back forcefully — and directly — against Iran.