By Philip Klein
Thursday, October 09, 2025
Barring some last-minute surprise, all indications are
that the war that Hamas launched against Israel will be coming to an end within
days. The two parties have agreed to a deal brokered by President Trump with
the help of Arab countries in the region that will see the return of all
hostages and the cessation of offensive Israeli military operations in Gaza.
It would be far too premature to declare this a total
victory for Israel. After all, Hamas still exists, in some capacity. Despite
the talk about its potential disarmament and plan for a transitional
international authority in Gaza, there is a very real possibility that the
terrorist group will slowly and methodically rebuild its ranks and weapons
arsenal in expectation that international monitors will be tempted to look the
other way to avoid the resumption of hostilities. Furthermore, as part of the deal,
Israel has agreed to release hundreds of hardened terrorists who would
immediately help fill the ranks of the fallen Hamas fighters. Hamas also
achieved a huge PR victory, with nations including France and the U.K. having
recognized a Palestinian state while Israel’s support among Democrats here in
the U.S. has collapsed over the course of the protracted war — and prominent
influencers are working tirelessly to turn Republicans against it too. While there is reason for confidence that
Hamas won’t reemerge as a threat while Trump is president, its future under a
future Democratic administration that is under the influence of its Mamdani
wing or a Republican administration dominated by the Tucker Carlson wing is a
lot less certain.
But while Israelis may not be able to claim a single and
final victory over the terrorists, they can speak of a number of separate and
very significant victories.
To start, neither Hamas nor any other Palestinian
terrorist group is in a position to carry out an attack on Israel anywhere near
the scale of what happened on October 7. The senior leadership of Hamas that
existed at the start of the war has been almost completely wiped out. All 24 of
its military battalions were defeated.
Per the Times of Israel,
“Israel says it has killed over 22,000 combatants in battle as of August and
another 1,600 terrorists inside Israel during the October 7 onslaught.” Rocket
attacks have slowed to a trickle of a few small-scale devices at a time; Gazan
terrorists are no longer capable of firing off thousands of more sophisticated
missiles at Israel. Furthermore, Hamas was forced to agree to release the
hostages without Israel’s full withdrawal, and Israel will maintain a security
perimeter inside Gaza along the border for an indefinite period.
Taking a bit of a broader view, to the north, Hezbollah
has been decapitated and severely weakened, its rocket supply depleted to an estimated 20 percent of
what it was at the start of the war.
The benefactor of both groups, Iran, was embarrassed as
the Israeli Air Force spent almost two weeks over the summer operating with
near impunity over the skies of Iran, and with the help of Trump was able to
deal a severe setback to its nuclear program. The Iranian response was severely
blunted by Israel’s success in its multi-front war. For decades, when Israel
was gaming out the potential Iranian response to an attack on the Islamic
Republic’s nuclear facilities, the assumption was always that Iran would call
on its proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah, to simultaneously launch rockets from the
north and the south so as to overwhelm Israeli missile defenses, allowing
Iran’s more sophisticated ballistic missiles to sneak through and cause serious
damage. Instead, Iran had to fire its best missiles without any cover.
The success or failure of Israel’s war effort won’t truly
be measured for decades. Hamas wasn’t completely annihilated, and there is no
shortage of Palestinians who want to dedicate their lives toward the goal of
destroying Israel. But Israel is a lot safer today than it was on October 7,
2023, and there are plenty of achievements to make Israelis proud.
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