Wednesday, October 15, 2025

The Middle East’s Morning After

By Amit Segal

Monday, October 13, 2025

 

I’ve been covering the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, for 25 years. Never before have I seen it in such a state of ecstasy as when the president of the United States ascended the podium Monday, at the same time as the last freed, living Israeli hostage arrived in the country and embraced his family. Two years of suffering, pain, and anxiety ended in an instant.

 

“This is,” Trump said, “the historic dawn of a new Middle East.” The big words justified themselves this time. In a region that places great stock in symbols and perception, this Knesset session was meant to broadcast to enemies and friends alike: Here, the United States of America and the State of Israel are celebrating victory at the end of a two-year war, together.

 

In the several years before October 7, 2023, a weak and hostile Democratic administration distanced itself from Israel. This time—and not because there are no windows in the Knesset plenum due to security—there was no daylight between Jerusalem and Washington. “The last two years have been a time of war. The coming two years will hopefully be a time of peace,” said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during his speech, invoking Ecclesiastes, a passage recently read in synagogues on Sukkot.

 

We will, of course, still speak about the war in the coming weeks and months. But the bigger question is: What kind of peace will it be?

 

Since the 1970s, the prevailing view in Israel was that the path to peace with the Arab states rested on the creation of a Palestinian state. Egypt signed a peace treaty with Israel in 1979 only after Israel committed to a process for Palestinian autonomy in the West Bank and Gaza. Jordan signed a peace treaty in 1994, a year after the Oslo Accords established the Palestinian Authority (PA) as a form of interim Palestinian self-government. Both of these concessions have led to violence.

 

Too many negotiations have been based on the idea that if Israel granted the Palestinians a state five minutes from Israelis’ homes—no matter how much terror came from there—it would be allowed to exist peacefully in the Middle East.

 

Netanyahu, first elected in 1996, never believed this myth for a moment. But a line of American Democratic presidents—Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and Joe Biden—did not allow him to wriggle free. For years, pressure from the United States forced him to declare support for two states for two peoples, no matter how implausible he knew that prospect to be.

 

And then came Donald Trump. The brilliant achievement of the Abraham Accords was Israel’s ability to establish peace with four Arab states, without making concessions on the Palestinian issue. It was a moment led by the United Arab Emirates, a country that could not stand the corrupt, terror-supporting Palestinian Authority. Saudi Arabia was meant to be next. The date it was supposed to join: October 19, 2023.

 

Twelve days before that date, Hamas murderers invaded Israel. Their immediate goal was to kill and rape as many as possible, but the timing was also intended to block Israeli normalization with Saudi Arabia. For two years, they succeeded. Israel drifted further and further from the moderate Arab states. Qatari money, which bankrolled Hamas’s terror, kept Israel locked in conflict. Meanwhile, the Jewish state received more and more condemnations from the international community for causing supposed “starvation” and “genocide.”

 

But over time, it became clear to these Arab states that Israel would not put up with this status quo any longer. This was exemplified first by Israel’s attacks on Iran, and more recently by its September 9 air strike on senior Hamas leaders gathering in Qatar. It was clear that the continuation of the war jeopardized the stability of the entire region. Something had to change.

 

And so: In late September, eight Arab countries publicly supported Trump’s 20-point peace plan for Gaza, a vital step toward pressuring Hamas to accept the deal—which it did days later. On Monday morning, the first phone call in two years took place between Netanyahu and Egyptian president Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, ahead of a Gaza peace summit in Egypt with more than 20 world leaders. Turkey is considering resuming its flights to Israel, which have been suspended since the beginning of the war. Indonesia’s president is attending the Egypt summit and is considering signing a peace agreement with Israel. Syria is wavering between a security arrangement and a comprehensive peace agreement. When Saudi Arabia joins the Abraham Accords, it will not be the last Arab country to do so.

 

Has Netanyahu and Trump’s approach of establishing peace in the Middle East through the surrounding Arab states completely triumphed? It’s more complicated than that. As part of the deal, Israel has to pay lip service to a future vision (entirely hypothetical, in my view) of a Palestinian state, predicated on the prospect that the Palestinian Authority will cease supporting terror and change its ways. And, during the transitional phase of the peace deal, the PA will have some level of presence in Gaza.

 

These gestures may be purely symbolic. But Hamas still exists inside of Gaza, and it’s unclear what form the long-term governance of the region will take. And so, though this is indeed a major breakthrough, the answer to the question, “What kind of peace will it be?” remains to be seen.

 

For now, it’s safe to say: The path to peace in the Middle East does not run through Ramallah.

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