By Gregory W. Slayton
Friday, September 26, 2025
Kudos to President Trump. For months, he tried everything
he could to get Vladimir Putin to the peace table. But every effort was met
with empty gestures and ever more lethal strikes on Ukrainian schools, hospitals,
churches, and homes.
Fortunately, Trump is a realist. He realizes there can be
no peace when the invading army is determined to keep fighting. This week, he
acknowledged three important realities about the war. In doing so, he gave our
Ukrainian and Western allies hope for eventual victory and lasting peace in
Ukraine and Europe.
First, Trump made it clear that Ukraine has both the
right and the ability to regain all the territory Russia has taken via military
aggression (accompanied by brutal and widespread war crimes) in the past twelve
years. That is in accordance with international law and the demands of the
large majority of Western democracies, and it sends the right message to
wannabe invaders everywhere. But it will be neither easy nor cheap. Trump’s
statement makes it clear that a return to Ukraine’s original borders is absolutely
possible and in fact necessary for a just and lasting peace. Of course, it took
Trump a while to get to that position. How and why he did brings us to the
second point he made clear this week.
The president understands that Russia no longer holds
“all the cards,” as he stated at the ill-fated White House meeting with
Volodymyr Zelensky in late February. The complete failure of Russia’s
much-ballyhooed summer offensive put to rest Putin’s boast that Russian victory
was inevitable. In fact, Russia has suffered over 1 million casualties and the
loss of over 4,000 of its main battle tanks since its invasion of Ukraine. Since Russia was estimated
to have had only 4,000 main battle tanks when it invaded, this is a shocking
loss rate. The Russian air force has lost an estimated 10–15 percent of its
aircraft and has never come close to establishing air superiority over Ukraine.
Similarly, the Russian navy has lost at least one-third of its Black Sea fleet
and has now essentially abandoned that strategic area, an artery vital for
Ukraine’s grain exports, entirely. On the other hand, the Ukrainians’ ability
to build their own powerful long-range missiles and stealthy long-range
delivery systems for their drones has put most of Russia’s military and
petrochemical facilities in range. Wholesale gas prices in Russia are up over
50 percent since January, long lines for gas are everywhere, and an estimated
15–20 percent of Russia’s petrochemical production facilities are offline due
to Ukrainian attacks. So, it now appears that Ukraine “has the cards.” Despite
the many challenges the Ukrainian military faces, this is unlikely to change in
the foreseeable future. Trump acknowledged that by calling Russia a “paper
tiger” in his September 23 Truth Social post. His recent ringing endorsement of
Zelensky is also notable: “He’s a brave man, and he’s putting up one hell of a
fight.”
The third reality Trump alluded to was the combination of
staggering economic and military losses that now have the Russian state facing
potential collapse in the next twelve to 18 months unless it changes course in
Ukraine. As Trump wrote in the above-mentioned Truth Social post, “Putin and
Russia are in BIG economic trouble.” Indeed, entire Russian industries,
including automotive, mining, banking, tourism, and civil aviation, are at risk
of failure. With an estimated 800,000 to 1.2 million well-educated young
Russians having fled the country since the start of the war, Russia’s high-tech
sector has been essentially gutted. And the Russian National Wealth Fund, which
reported $117 billion in liquid assets in 2021, has been drained to pay for
much of Russia’s war in Ukraine. As of this June, it was estimated to have
fallen to $31 billion in liquid assets. Some economists believe it will be out
of liquid reserves by year’s end. Inflation and interest rates in Russia are said
to be sky high, and real economic growth will be close to zero this year.
Government budget deficits continue to rise sharply and are unsustainable. In
short, Russia cannot afford to continue the war at anywhere near this pace for
much longer. An economic reckoning is not far off.
By speaking the truth so clearly, Trump has sent a clarion call to both our allies and our adversaries. For our allies, victory and a just peace in Ukraine are within sight if we work together effectively. For our adversaries, their costly efforts to stymie the cause of liberty, democracy, and the rule of law will not succeed, at least not in this generation. If he stays the course, Trump can lead the democratic nations of the world to the most important global triumph since Reagan won the Cold War. But he must now step up and ensure the USA, along with our NATO partners, strongly supports Ukraine militarily and economically. Anything less risks allowing Ukraine to devolve into a forever war in which the collective West is the loser, no matter the eventual outcome.
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