By Noah Rothman
Friday, September 11, 2026
The Iranians seem to have finally, after many
unsuccessful attempts, dragged Yemen’s Houthis into the fight. Sort of.
From the outset of Operation Epic Fury, the Iranian
regime lobbied the Houthis both publicly and in private to open a second
maritime front — complementing Tehran’s efforts to block traffic in the Strait
of Hormuz with a Houthi-led assault on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on the other
side of the Arabian Peninsula.
For months, the Houthis balked at the requests from their
Iranian sponsors. Back in March, in a reflection of the internal disagreement
over whether to reignite the war that the Houthis prosecuted in the Biden
years, the Houthis fired a perfunctory drone and missile barrage at Israel. Analysts
believe this was likely the compromise on which all sides of the debate could
agree.
Months of relative quiet followed that exhibition, which
revealed the Houthis’ diminished appetite for war. Even when the Houthis
acquiesced to pressure and, in July, announced their intention to close the
strait that leads to the Red Sea and toward the Suez Canal, the traffic
continued to flow. It seemed that Sana’a was not eager for the fight.
That changed in early August, but it wasn’t the Iranians
who changed it.
“The Houthis, increasingly frustrated with what they say
is a blockade by Saudi Arabia, launched strikes on the Saudi state oil company
and announced a blockade of Saudi ships passing through the Red Sea,” the Washington Post reported on August 2. An ongoing
exchange of missiles and drones between the Houthis and the neighboring Saudi
Kingdom intensified after August 20, when the Yemeni militia attacked a “sensitive target at Najran airport and an Aramco
facility in Najran” as well as Saudi ships at sea.
Riyadh pledged in the wake of that attack to do whatever it could to support the internationally
recognized Yemeni government in Aden, possibly including direct intervention.
Meanwhile, pro-government forces launched a multifront
offensive against Houthi positions. At the beginning of the month,
government-aligned forces appeared to be holding their own. In the last 48 hours, however, a Houthi
offensive has made significant strategic gains.
On Friday, regional sources confirmed that the Houthis
had captured the port city of Mokha, which is situated on the coast of the Red
Sea at the mouth of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. In addition, the militia mounted
a maritime assault on Perim Island in the Red Sea, giving its forces greater
control over commercial traffic flowing north toward the Mediterranean.
“The Houthi advance further threatens Saudi oil exports
just as Iran is constraining shipments through the Strait of Hormuz on the
other side of the Arabian Peninsula,” the Wall Street Journal reported. Consequently, global
energy markets reeled at the prospect of a united Iranian-Houthi front designed
to throttle all maritime traffic from the Indian Ocean.
Most disconcertingly, some militant group — the Houthis,
perhaps, or an Iran-aligned militia in Iraq — has reportedly managed to strike
a crucial overland oil pipeline inside Saudi Arabia. CNN confirms:
The pipeline has
become key to Saudi Arabia since the outbreak of the US-Iran war. The kingdom
has rerouted about 5 million barrels of oil per day that would have been
destined for awaiting oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, as Iran effectively
shuttered the Strait of Hormuz. Instead, that oil has traveled through its
East-West pipeline to its port of Yanbu on the Red Sea.
According to Axios, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman
telephoned Donald Trump twice on Thursday “urging him to launch strikes against
the Houthis.” Trump reportedly declined, but the U.S. is providing intelligence
and targeting support to the Kingdom in its military campaign against the
Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, and hundreds of U.S. military personnel are
already on the ground in Saudi Arabia. That may not prove sufficient given the
effect of the Houthi offensive on the price of Brent Crude, but it’s not
nothing.
While there are “hundreds of Iranian Revolutionary Guard
Corps officers in Yemen,” as CNN reported, the full-scale activation of the
Houthis seems attributable more to political dynamics within the militia and
their long-running fight against the Saudi Kingdom than Iranian coercion.
Still, the flare-up doubtlessly advances Iran’s objectives by putting upward
pressure on oil prices. This development comes as cracks within the Iranian
political class over whether to continue fighting the war at all have begun to
spill into the public square.
While it has been widely reported that the IRGC favors
escalation to force Trump back to the negotiating table, that view is not
shared by the Iranian political class. For months, Iranian President Masoud
Pezeshkian has been having a prolonged and public nervous breakdown over the
strain the U.S. blockade has placed on the Iranian economy.
This week, he was joined by two
of his predecessors, Hassan Rouhani and Mohammad Khatami, both of whom
called on the IRGC to find an “honorable” way to win the war. Other Iranian
“moderate” elements fear that Trump’s recent strikes on Iran’s “ghost
fleet” of indolent oil tankers idling in the Strait of Hormuz will ensure that
the country never financially recovers from the war. “Iran needs realistic
governance rather than radical idealism,” said the disillusioned reformer and
one-time regime insider Hamidreza Jalaeipour.
The stakes in this already high-stakes game of chicken
keep rising.
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