By Noah Rothman
Thursday, July 16, 2026
Typically, an embattled administration looking to shore
up support within what it views as influential elements of its base will
dispatch its principals on goodwill tours designed to convince skeptics to
support the administration’s policies. In JD Vance’s interview with Joe Rogan,
however, the vice president lobbied the podcaster on his own behalf, not Donald
Trump’s.
When it comes to Iran, the policies Vance advocated do
not reflect those of the administration in which he serves. Indeed, his views
seem to be incompatible with the president’s.
“There are people, you know, who are super hawkish in the
American system who have attacked the deal, and frankly, in some ways, have
tried to derail the deal,” Vance
said of the now-defunct memorandum of understanding with Iran. “And I
always say to those people, ‘What is your proposal?’”
Donald Trump was asked a similar question this week, and
he answered it succinctly:
“They always want to meet,” Trump said of his Iranian
counterparts. “If you’re not going to do it the way I’m doing it, you’re never
going to make a deal with them.”
The vice president and his allies have done their utmost to ensure that you know he’s not on board with any of this. In his conversation
with Rogan, Vance articulated the capitulatory logic behind the MOU, which
would cede the Strait of Hormuz to Iran based on his conclusion that defanging
the Islamic Republic in the strait is an impossible task.
“The people who are like, ‘You can’t negotiate with the
Iranians,’ the reason why that’s fundamentally idiotic is, so long as you have
some person who is willing to fire off a few cheap drones, you’re going to have
some ship captains who say, ‘No, we’re not willing to do this,” Vance said.
“You can bomb them. You can take away some of their drones and some of their
missiles, but it’s just too easy to fire at ships in the strait, so you’ve got
to be willing to talk and to try to figure out the problem.”
That’s another way of saying that the president is
putting American blood and treasure on the line in a fool’s errand that is
destined to fail. That’s a serious charge. It’s one the president’s Democratic opponents have expressed almost in those precise
terms on a semi-regular basis.
Perhaps Vance thinks the president has been misled. Maybe
he thinks Trump has been ensorcelled by what he alleges was “a
literal foreign influence campaign” paid for by “certain elements within the
Israeli government” to undermine diplomacy with Iran. If the vice president
believes that all his critics are acting in bad faith and the president is as
much a victim of this campaign of Israeli active measures as anyone, Vance
might have taken his concerns to the president in private before setting out to
embarrass him on one of America’s most listened-to podcasts.
This is reflective of a familiar dynamic. The vice president spent much of last
year promulgating an alternate reality in which the Trump administration was
skeptical of Benjamin Netanyahu’s government and Israel’s defensive priorities.
It was an evidence-free proposition. Similarly, Vance regularly informed
reporters that, if the Ukraine-Russia peace process failed, America would leave
Ukraine to the fate the Kremlin had in store for it. After all, “This is not
our war,” he maintained.
The vice president wasn’t describing the administration’s
policies. He was outlining his own preferences.
There’s the chance that the vice president believes
everything he told Rogan. We cannot rule out the possibility that Vance has
related his concerns to the president, but that Trump is nevertheless deaf to
them. If Vance truly believed the president is sacrificing American interests
to those of a foreign power, putting U.S. service personnel in the danger in
the process, then he has another option: resign in protest.
That would dispel the notion, at least, that the vice
president is feathering his own political nest at the expense of the
administration of which he is a part. It would confirm that Vance’s principles
are deeply held and his objections to the Iran war are sincere. Otherwise, it’s
not clear what Vance is doing save campaigning for the presidency. That
wouldn’t be as distasteful if it didn’t apparently require him to undermine
America’s ongoing efforts to subdue an implacable U.S. enemy in wartime.
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