Black Voters Keep Putting the Brakes on the Socialist Revolution

By Philip Klein

Wednesday, July 15, 2026

 

The Detroit  News is out with a new poll showing Haley Stevens opening up a seven-point lead over the socialist Abdul El-Sayed. Especially interesting is that she is beating El-Sayed among black voters 67 percent to 21 percent — a margin of 46 points.

 

Whenever I hear people talk about resurgent socialism or the possibility that Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D., N.Y.) could be the 2028 Democratic nominee, I keep questioning where her path would be to win over black voters, who are crucial to winning the Democratic primaries. Time and again, black voters have proven to be more pragmatic than their progressive white counterparts by prioritizing electability over ideology and being less utopian in their expectations for government.

 

In 2020, Senator Bernie Sanders crushed Joe Biden in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada — which traditionally would have put any Democratic nominee on a glide path to the nomination. The Biden recovery depended on a number of well-documented factors, especially a flood of key endorsements. But it would not have been possible were it not for black voters, starting with South Carolina. Black voters there composed a majority of the electorate, and Sanders lost them by 44 points.

 

If there is to be a change, it will likely be fueled by younger black voters. In last year’s mayoral primary in New York City, Zohran Mamdani lost black voters to Cuomo among first-choice voters, but once all votes were tallied in the ranked-choice system, it ended up 50–50 among that demographic. Yet a closer look at the age breakdown showed a stark age gap. Cuomo won the over-60 crowd by 28 points (64–36), while Mamdani won black voters under 50 by 42 points (71–29).

 

The Democratic mayoral primary electorate in New York City is obviously a lot different than the presidential primary electorate in South Carolina and, it seems, in Michigan. So I am still skeptical. Flipping deep blue districts from progressive to socialist is a lot different than putting together a successful national campaign.