National Review Online
Wednesday, July 29, 2026
The first time Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky was
in the Oval Office, matters notoriously took an unfortunate turn. The second
time, a few months later, a mulligan of sorts, achieved little of substance but
in a relatively cordial fashion. The latest meeting, which took place
yesterday, seemed to go even better than that.
There were earlier signs that it would. Speaking at the NATO summit in Ankara earlier this month,
President Trump, referring to Zelensky, said that “we’ve actually developed a
good relationship! Hard to believe, right? From the Oval Office to now.” Zelensky had “done an amazing job” and had “been very
effective.”
Trump had also commented that Zelensky “had the best
equipment because he’s had our equipment,” words, if this is not to overread
them, that suggested that Trump takes some pride in America’s equipping of
Ukraine. He should. Ukraine still has a hard and uncertain road ahead, but at
some point in the last few months, Kyiv looked to have moved beyond merely
hanging on, however bravely, to something more promising. Donald Trump is
impressed by success.
Ukraine has pioneered a form of drone warfare, a
combination of machine and electronic ecosystem, that has turned the front
lines of the Donbas into a lethal “kill zone.” This has made it nearly
impossible for Russia to use its advantage in manpower and equipment to fight
the war of attrition that could spell disaster for its much smaller foe. Its
forces are still advancing but at a fraction of their former pace, and at a heavy cost.
Meanwhile, much of Russia’s Black Sea fleet has been
harassed by Ukrainian drones into near immobility. Many of its ships have
sailed east from Sevastopol, the fleet’s traditional base in Crimea, to
Novorossiysk, a safer but less well-equipped port in Russia proper. Meanwhile,
the increasing range of Ukraine’s drones and missiles means that they are being
sent ever deeper into Moscow’s realm. Targeted primarily at Russia’s energy
sector and other infrastructure, they are intended to damage the country’s economy
and, to a degree, take the war to the aggressor.
Ukraine’s position may have improved, but it is still
under sustained attack. On the offensive side all it can do is press so hard
that Putin will be prepared to negotiate a peace treaty acceptable to both
sides, a high bar, as Trump should not forget. Putin shows no interest in any
kind of compromise, if indeed that option is, politically, even open to him.
Despite hairline fractures here and there, there are no serious signs of a
Russian collapse. That means that Ukraine must maintain its defenses by retaining
its technological edge and (despite recent political upheaval) the strategy
that it makes possible.
Kyiv should continue to use its technology and know-how
to make new allies and bind itself more closely to those that it has. The
timing of a recent attack by Ukrainian drones on an Iranian vessel allegedly
bound with arms for Russia was obviously designed to send a message to
Washington as well as Tehran, part of which is that Moscow, Tehran, and Beijing
are all heads of the same hydra. Zelensky has already said he will instruct
Ukraine’s intelligence service to share information it has on Russian help for
Tehran with the U.S.
In the short term, Ukraine has a dangerous lack of the
interceptors (primarily Patriots) needed to shoot down Russia’s ballistic
missiles. Downing Russian drones and cruise missiles is one thing, knocking out
ballistic missiles quite another. Moscow’s recent ramping up of missile attacks
raises the prospect of far worse to come. In Ankara, Trump announced that he would allow Patriots to be manufactured
under license in Ukraine. Such a move, which was discussed again yesterday,
would be a useful step forward in establishing Ukraine’s long-term security.
However, even if implemented it will do nothing to resolve the short-term
shortage: These missiles take years to make. In Ankara, Trump also said he
would release some more Patriots from the U.S. stockpile, but that reserve has
been diminished by earlier shipments to Ukraine and by the war in Iran. Other allies
should also help, but this remains a strong card that the Kremlin can play, and
there appears to be only so much that can be done about it.
Little new emerged about yesterday’s meeting, but that
the relationship between Zelensky and Trump remains on an even keel is welcome
news. For that to continue, Trump will need to accept that a quick peace will
remain elusive. More difficult, perhaps, he and the Europeans must work
together to ensure that transatlantic tensions do not jeopardize support for
Ukraine in a war with geopolitical ramifications that spread far beyond the
Donbas.
No comments:
Post a Comment