By Nick Catoggio
Monday, May 18, 2026
I come to bury Bill Cassidy, not to praise him.
The two-term incumbent finished third in this weekend’s Republican Senate primary in Louisiana, missing the runoff.
In 2014 and 2020 he was elected to his seat by double-digit margins, in the
first case bumping off longtime Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu. On Saturday,
against two lesser-known right-wingers, he couldn’t muster 25 percent.
Not since 2017 had a sitting senator standing for
election failed to advance past a primary.
Cassidy famously voted to convict Donald Trump at his
second impeachment trial, and our retribution-obsessed president never forgot
it. As late as Saturday afternoon, with Louisiana Republicans already at the
polls, Trump felt obliged to ding Cassidy as a
“sleazebag” and a “terrible guy” in a screed on Truth Social.
The commentariat was of one mind afterward in pronouncing
the cause of political death. The senator’s fate “shows the price of dissent in
Trump’s Republican Party,” NBC News concluded. “The lesson: Do not cross Trump,”
independent analyst Chris
Cillizza agreed.
That is not the lesson of Bill Cassidy’s defeat.
Lots of Republicans have “crossed” Trump since 2016 and
lived to tell the tale. Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz opposed him in that year’s
Republican presidential primary, at times criticizing him in bitterly personal
terms. Cruz couldn’t even bring himself to endorse the party’s new nominee in
his speech at that year’s GOP convention. “Vote your conscience,” he urged conservatives contemplating
their choice in November.
Ten years later, Trump is talking up Cruz for a Supreme Court vacancy and touting Rubio, his secretary of
state, as a potential successor to lead the party.
Rubio’s chief rival as heir apparent also crossed the
president in the past. J.D. Vance was an outspoken Never Trumper back in the day, you may recall,
having once gone as far as to wonder whether Trump might prove to be “America’s Hitler.” All of that was public knowledge in
2024. The president made Vance his running mate anyway.
Few Republicans have crossed him as sharply as Florida
Gov. Ron DeSantis did when DeSantis jumped into the 2024 Republican
presidential primary. Defeat in that race would have cost Trump not just his
hegemony over the American right but potentially his freedom, given the federal
criminal cases pending against him. One might assume that the president bears
DeSantis a ferocious grudge for his impertinence.
Nope. The two had lunch together in Miami last month and
reportedly discussed a position in the administration. “Trump likes him,” a
source told Axios.
I could go on and on. How about Lindsey Graham and the
president throwing wild rhetorical roundhouses at each other in 2016, then a clearly shaken
Graham declaring “count me out, enough is enough” on the evening of January
6, 2021—yet still maintaining his status as a top-tier Trump crony to
this day? He turned up on Meet the Press this weekend to opine
on Cassidy’s defeat, in fact, gloating over his own superior survival
skills.
Or how about Mitt Romney lambasting Trump in a speech in
the thick of the 2016 primary, calling him a “phony” and a “fraud,” and the new president-elect
responding nine months later by interviewing Romney to be his secretary of state?
“Do not cross Trump” is not the lesson of Bill Cassidy’s
political demise. But there are lessons.
Minor lessons.
Lesson one: Do not side with political enemies who are
treating Trump “unfairly,” especially as a matter of conscience.
There are doubtless anodyne factors that help explain why
the president has forgiven people like Rubio and DeSantis yet couldn’t forgive
Cassidy. Watching vanquished opponents come crawling to him tickles his ego,
I’m sure. And, importantly, all of the Republicans I mentioned earlier (save
Romney) plainly worked hard to cultivate relationships with him after they’d
crossed him.
Trump has a childlike habit of viewing anyone who treats
him cordially as a “friend,” including Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, and if
you’re not a postliberal’s friend you’re his enemy. Bill Cassidy didn’t try very hard to build the sort of sycophantic “yes,
master” personal rapport with Trump following his impeachment vote that might
have reestablished him as a friend.
But even if he had, I doubt it would have worked.
That’s because Trump does seem to hold special
grudges against Republicans who take sides against him in, ahem, Democratic
“witch hunts.” He never forgave Jeff Sessions for recusing himself in the
Justice Department’s Russiagate probe, which made Robert Mueller’s
investigation possible. He never forgave Liz Cheney for linking arms with the
left to punish him for his plot to overturn the “rigged” election of 2020. And
he never forgave Mike Pence for declining to stop the counting of electoral
votes on January 6, deeming it preferable to run instead in 2024 with a guy who
thought he might be “America’s Hitler.”
When Trump feels cornered, he expects all Republicans to
rally to his aid unthinkingly against those who cornered him. To prioritize
what your own conscience tells you is right over his political survival is to
fail the supreme loyalty test, an unforgivable betrayal. That’s what Cassidy
did in voting to convict him at his impeachment trial after the insurrection.
Lesson two: If you insist on ignoring lesson one, go
all-in.
Failing that supreme loyalty test for conscientious
reasons is a deeply admirable thing to do. It amounts to political martyrdom:
Rather than behave immorally to preserve your career, you opt to behave
virtuously and accept professional death as the consequence. That’s what Pence
and Cheney did, and it’s why every non-chud in America respects them.
Bill Cassidy behaved virtuously when he voted to
convict—but couldn’t make peace with the political death sentence it earned
him. He sought clemency from the president for his betrayal. And rather than
earn that clemency by becoming a slobbering ass-kisser like Graham, damaging
only himself in the process, he chose to make amends by all but singlehandedly
clearing the way for the most influential anti-vaccine kook on earth to
lead the Department of Health and Human Services.
A gastroenterologist who’s treated hepatitis patients,
Cassidy knows firsthand how much needless human misery can be
avoided by vaccination. His vote to confirm Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was
transparently a ploy to try to win back Trump’s favor by lending scientific
credibility to the least fit Cabinet nomination in the history of the country,
knowing that another Senate primary in Louisiana was on the horizon.
No one has done more damage to the United States in order
to make Donald Trump happy than Bill Cassidy did by voting to confirm Kennedy.
It’s an infamous dereliction of duty and will be remembered as such.
I repeat what I said when I wrote about it last
year, borrowing what Churchill told Neville Chamberlain after Munich: “You
were given the choice between war and dishonor. You chose dishonor, and you
will have war.” Bill Cassidy chose dishonor, handing over American public
health to witch doctors, in hopes that doing so might spare him a primary war.
He got war anyway. He lost, and he deserved to.
Let others learn from his foolishness: If you choose
political martyrdom at Trump’s hands, own it. Make the most of it by
continuing to follow your conscience, knowing that your prognosis is terminal
regardless. It’s the height of stupidity to cast a difficult vote that secures
your legacy as a statesman, as Cassidy did after January 6, and then undertake
to destroy that legacy by behaving disgracefully for expedient reasons, as he
did with Kennedy. Liz Cheney understood that. Somehow the brilliant doctor did
not.
Die on your feet, not on your knees.
Lesson three: Don’t be brave only after it’s “safe” to
do so.
“When you participate in democracy, sometimes it doesn’t
turn out the way you want it to. But you don’t pout,” Cassidy told
supporters during his concession speech on Saturday night. “You don’t whine.
You don’t claim the election was stolen.”
It was clear to all to whom he was alluding. “Insults
only bother me if they come from somebody of character and integrity,” he went on to say, mentioning no one in particular. “I find
that people of character and integrity don’t spend their time attacking people
on the internet.” Then this, from the physician who voted to put RFK Jr. in
charge of Americans’ access to vaccines: “Leaders should think through the
consequences of their actions.”
To listen to him after the votes were in, you might
assume that he had scrupulously distanced himself on the campaign trail from
the pouting, whining black hole of character and integrity in the White House.
Not so. He ran ads trumpeting his vote for Trump’s tax cuts, emphasizing
that he “worked with” the president to pass them and showing photos of the two
side by side.
He even called it “ridiculous” for his primary opponents
to question his loyalty to Trump. “It’s being said by people who don’t have
anything else to campaign on,” Cassidy told NOTUS of the allegation last year. “The
president has eight Cabinet secretaries that he would not have if I had not
voted for them and got them through. When the secretary of defense was
[confirmed] … I was the 50th vote.”
Given all of that, who was his concession-speech candor
supposed to impress, surfacing as it did only after he no longer had anything
to lose by telling the truth about Trump?
I suppose I prefer pugnacity to the alternative, as
professing his undying devotion to the president even in defeat would have been
Lindsey Graham-tier pathetic. But suddenly being brave after it becomes “safe”
to do so is destined to alienate everyone. To Trump supporters, watching
Cassidy vent at the president as soon as the race ended must have felt like
proof that the phonies of the GOP establishment really do secretly despise
their hero and, by extension, them.
Whereas, to Trump critics, Cassidy at last mustering the
nerve to speak out once the axe had fallen confirmed suspicions about the
loathsome selfish cowardice of Beltway Republicans. Only after their careerist
aspirations run aground, conveniently, do they tend to rediscover the civic spirit that’s supposed to animate them
as public servants.
Whichever side you’re on with respect to Cassidy, you’re
more cynical about politics today than you were a few days ago. That’s not true
of Republicans like Cheney and Romney, who didn’t proceed to talk out of both
sides of their mouth about the president once they realized what a civic menace
he was.
The major lesson.
But wait, you say. Cassidy wasn’t brave only
when it was “safe” to be brave. He voted to convict Trump. That was brave!
True—although I strongly suspect the senator didn’t
understand just how brave he was being when he cast that vote. If there’s a
tragic element to his primary defeat, it’s that he may have assumed that the
rank-and-file of his party are much more virtuous than they really are.
Remember the posture of his impeachment vote. Cassidy was
less than two months into a new six-year term. Trump’s approval, although still
sturdy with Republicans, had plummeted among Americans after the insurrection. The Biden
Justice Department was gearing up to pursue the now-former president on
criminal charges related to the “stop the steal” plot.
The senator from Louisiana had good reason to believe the
Trump era was over.
Sure, Republican voters would be angry at him for voting
to convict—for a while. But they had six years to get over it before he’d face
them again in a primary. By 2026, Trump might be in prison. Even if he wasn’t,
it’s a cinch that the GOP would have moved on by then and found a new leader,
eroding the base’s resentment of Cassidy for his impeachment vote.
That the right might nominate Trump again in 2024, after
a failed coup plot, simply did not occur to him, I would guess.
All of which is to say that I don’t think Bill Cassidy
was naive about Trump’s wrath when he voted the way he did after January 6. The
president is little more than a gelatinous blob of grudges and grievances, and
the senator doubtless knew it. What Cassidy was naive about was his faith that
Republican voters could not possibly be so morally wretched that they
would still be worshiping that blob five years later, still seeking revenge on
the senator in 2026 for having cast what was obviously a brave, correct, and
honorable vote.
He didn’t grasp at the time how rotten his own
constituency was or foresee how much more rotten it would become. He did the
right thing, unambiguously—and it made him anathema to the American right. In
Donald Trump’s party, conscience kills. That’s the real lesson of the Cassidy
disaster.
And the senator tried to learn it, albeit too late. The
easiest way to understand his vote to confirm Kennedy is as a formal
repudiation of his own conscience: Between betraying his profession as a doctor
and cynically aligning himself with a president whom he believed committed high
crimes during his first term, few Republican lawmakers have strained as hard to
prioritize partisan loyalty over conscientiousness as Cassidy has over the past
year.
Having failed the supreme loyalty test five years ago,
though, he couldn’t un-fail it. In a postliberal party like the GOP, you don’t
lose a primary for disappointing the base on policy; ideological orthodoxy is
whatever Trump declares it to be from one moment to the next, after all. You
lose it for trying to punish an authoritarian demagogue for a coup plot that
would have ended the American experiment had it succeeded. Cassidy chose the
Constitution over Trump. He would never be forgiven for it.
There is no hope for America as long as the right remains
what
it’s become. Bill Cassidy didn’t know that in 2021. He knows now.
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