Kicking an Ally

By Andrew Stuttaford

Saturday, May 16, 2026

 

Poland has for years been one of this country’s best friends in Europe. Far from being one of the freeloaders that President Trump has rightly complained about, Poland will likely spend 4.8 percent of GDP on defense in 2026, more (in percentage terms) than any NATO country. Poland has called on other NATO members to increase their defense-related spending to 5 percent of GDP by 2030, five years ahead of target. In Warsaw’s view, sticking with a 2035 date risks leaving things too late. That’s worth noting. After all, Poland, along with the Baltic States, was warning about the dangers of Russian revanchism long before almost anyone else. These are countries which understand their neighbor.

 

Geographically, militarily, and politically, Poland is the linchpin of NATO’s increasingly impressive northeastern frontline.

 

Under the circumstances, this (via Politico) is nuts:

 

Pete Hegseth’s last-minute decision to cancel the deployment of 4,000 troops to Poland caught Pentagon staff and European allies by surprise — the latest example of an abrupt personnel move from the Defense secretary that blindsided both sides of the Atlantic.

 

It wasn’t clear exactly why Hegseth issued the order, according to three defense officials familiar with the matter. President Donald Trump has repeatedly expressed anger and frustration with European allies for their failure to help with the Iran war, although Trump has labeled Poland a “model ally” for its high defense spending.

 

Making matters worse, this oddly sudden move comes on top of a U.S. decision to pull 5,000 troops out of Germany, and the abandonment of plans to strengthen Germany’s defenses by basing Tomahawk cruise missiles there. The missiles have a range that, if necessary, could reach Russia. The best way of ensuring that matters never get to that point is by boosting the credibility of the U.S. deterrent, especially during the tricky period in which Europe is meant to be assuming more responsibility for its defense.

 

This move does the opposite and there’s also an obvious risk that it will weaken U.S. clout within Europe at a delicate time. That’s not helpful either.

 

And there’s something else. As we argued in a recent editorial, the administration needs to be “focused on the fact that, with the Gulf in turmoil, plenty of recent or potential U.S. allies in that region will be watching very carefully to see just how reliable a friend America can be.”

 

Well . . .