Wednesday, April 12, 2023

What Kind of Environment Will GOP Senate Candidates Run in Next Year?

By Jim Geraghty

Tuesday, April 11, 2023

 

Below, Jeff laments that Doug Mastriano wants to run for the U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania, and that 2024 is threatening to be little better than a wan replay of the mistakes of the 2022 cycle. We should not be surprised that the quality of potential Republican Senate candidates is declining sharply, cycle by cycle.

 

Let’s imagine you’re an accomplished figure with conservative values and worldview, who is concerned about the state of the country and America’s future. Let’s also imagine that you are financially comfortable enough to have the time and resources to dedicate to running for office in the near future.

 

Do you want to run for a U.S. Senate seat in 2024 in a state that is not deep red? It is conceivable that in some circumstances — such as a Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden scenario — the political wind will be at your back. A country fed up with economic turbulence, high inflation, high gas and grocery prices, high interest rates, and other problems could well decide to dismiss Democrats and their choice to renominate an octogenarian president who rambles about ice cream before launching into his usual tired demonization of Americans who disagree. You could have a GOP president, a GOP Senate majority, and a GOP House, giving you the opportunity in shaping a lasting change in the country’s laws and the direction of the federal government.

 

But it is also conceivable that you’ll be running as the GOP nominates a man with a 25 percent national favorability rating, indicted and rambling about conspiracy theories and insisting he won the 2020 presidential election, bringing his whole nutty entourage with people like the Pillow Guy, as the Republican Party as a whole struggles to articulate a clear position on the issue of abortion in the first presidential election since the repeal of Roe v. Wade.

 

If Trump does win the nomination, the odds are very high that you, as a GOP candidate for Senate, will have to publicly pledge loyalty to Trump, in some form or fashion. This means you will have to nod and smile every time Trump goes off on some deranged rant and shrug off whatever unhinged ALL CAPS tirade he posts on Truth Social.

 

You, as a Senate candidate, might want to talk about the economy, foreign threats including the rise of China, energy independence, securing the border, the importance of providing a good education to all of America’s children and young adults, and maybe some emerging issues like the potential and risks of artificial intelligence, or hypersonic weapons, or breakthroughs in medical treatments and how to bring them to the people who need them the most. Hopefully, you have a well-thought-out perspective on abortion that enhances, instead of hinders, your ability to get elected.

 

But we know that GOP Senate candidates don’t get to talk about what they want to talk about when they take questions from the press. If you run, you will probably get a lot of questions about Stormy Daniels, proposals to disband the FBI, proposals to seize voting machines, whether you agree with the former president that former attorney general Bill Barr can accurately be described as the “slovenly and pathetic Bill Barr, our COWARD former A.G.” and “a weak & angry RINO!” or whether you agree with the former president that America should have only “same day voting” when you’re trying to promote your state’s early-voting program.

 

Do you want to commit yourself to that? Do you want to spend a significant chunk of your fortune on that Senate bid? Do you want to put your family through that? Running for office already means accepting reporters looking through all kinds of aspects of your past life, searching for scandals and embarrassing mistakes.

 

Donald Trump has created an issue and media environment where it is exceptionally difficult for candidates who are unlike him to flourish.

No comments: