The GOP’s Anti-Ukraine Caucus Reveals Itself to Be a Rump

By Noah Rothman

Friday, April 21, 2023

 

This week, some Republican lawmakers affixed their names to an open letter addressed to President Joe Biden in which they express “concern” over the “unrestrained” aid the administration is providing Ukraine in its effort to resist Russia’s invasion. Though it could not have been its authors’ intention, the letter reveals how little purchase these sentiments apparently have among congressional Republicans.

 

Conservatives and Republicans who support Ukraine in its defense against Moscow’s murderous effort to gobble up neighboring territory — the largest war on European soil since 1945 — are routinely told that they are on the wrong side of their party’s voters. With all the bombast and self-assuredness that accompanies a belief in their own historic inevitability, the loudest voices in the Republican conference insist that those within the GOP who support Ukrainian sovereignty have their priorities all wrong.

 

Volodymyr Zelensky’s administration is the “most corrupt leadership and corrupt government in Europe,” they insist. Backing Ukrainian resistance saps American resources and diverts American attention away from more vital priorities — foreign and domestic — to a suspect extent. Ukraine’s sovereignty is not a “vital” American interest, and Russia is merely attending to a “family dispute.” Kyiv certainly doesn’t deserve the “blank check” it has been provided, if only because “Ukraine is losing” this war. More and more Republicans are concluding America should cut its losses in Ukraine. Those on the right who are not there yet should come to terms with their minority status within the coalition. Get on board or get run over.

 

Republicans in Congress who sincerely believe all this would have been better off preserving some ambiguity about their numbers. Of the 271 Republicans in both chambers of Congress, only 19 signed their names to this letter. Among the signatories, most are recognizable as the usual suspects. Senators Mike Lee, Rand Paul, and J. D. Vance signed, and they were joined by high-profile members of the House like Lauren Boebert, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Paul Gosar, and Matt Gaetz.

 

A cursory review of the letter’s content suffices to explain why it failed to attract the support of more than 7 percent of the congressional GOP.

 

“The current strategy of sanctions and drawn-out aid will only prolong the conflict, leading to escalation and more violence,” the letter reads. But how? The assumption embedded in this sentence is that the war would speedily conclude — presumably, in something resembling a Russian victory — if the U.S. withdrew its support for Ukraine. What’s always left unsaid is that the fighting wouldn’t end in such a scenario; it would intensify as Ukrainian forces withdrew from the front lines, drawing the action closer to NATO’s frontier.

 

Moreover, there’s no indication that America’s allies along that frontier would follow Washington’s lead. If the U.S. simply surrendered its role as prima inter paras within NATO, its European partners would likely freelance their own respective strategies to contain the conflict on their borders. Some NATO allies might take an even more aggressive approach to backing Kyiv, introducing dramatically more potential for a larger conflagration as a result.

 

“Unrestrained U.S. aid for Ukraine must come to an end,” the letter adds. “There are appropriate ways in which the U.S. can support the Ukrainian people, but unlimited arms supplies in support of an endless war is not one of them.” What “unrestrained” and “unlimited” aid are they talking about? The Biden administration has spent the duration of this conflict engaged in a bitter argument with itself over the restraints it would observe in its disbursement of provisions to Ukraine. From long-range artillery to guided-missile systems, from air-defense batteries to tanks and fixed-wing aircraft (the latter of which Biden remains opposed to sending to Ukraine), the White House has circumscribed its support amid an internal deliberation over what constitutes an imprudent escalation of American involvement in the conflict.

 

“We strongly urge you to advocate for a negotiated peace between the two sides,” the letter continues, “bringing this awful conflict to a close.” On what terms? On whose terms?

 

A negotiated ceasefire is how this phase of Russia’s conflict with Ukraine is likely to end. But the timing and conditions of that ceasefire will be determined by events on the battlefield first, and neither side currently appears satisfied with the situation on the ground. If this letter’s signatories believe Washington should put its thumb on the scale and force Ukraine to accept its present losses, thereby giving it a weaker hand at the negotiating table and setting the stage for a bigger war when this latest “frozen conflict” thaws, they should say as much. They’re not, which provides some indication of the unpopularity of their unspoken assumptions.

 

The letter concludes with a warning that its Republican signatories “will adamantly oppose all future aid packages unless they are linked to a clear diplomatic strategy designed to bring this war to a rapid conclusion.” Okay. You and what majority?

 

The last time Congress passed a stand-alone bill in support of Ukraine, nearly a year ago, it earned 368 votes in the House and 86 votes in the Senate. Fifty-seven House Republicans and eleven GOP senators opposed it — not enough to halt its passage, but enough to register dissatisfaction with America’s support for the Ukrainian cause. Where are those Republicans now? As Manhattan Institute fellow Brian Riedl observed, this ill-considered letter might suggest that their “numbers are actually shrinking.”

 

If you were to limit your information consumption to prime-time cable news and the spectacle that passes for discourse on social-media platforms, you could be forgiven for concluding that those most representative of the consensus within the GOP are, at best, ambivalent about the prosect of a Russian victory in Europe. Maybe that misperception is what led the letter-writers to reveal the true strength of their position. There are plenty of Republicans in Congress who have earned the right to critique Joe Biden’s lack of strategic acumen. These 19 are not among them.