By Noah
Rothman
Thursday,
April 20, 2023
The fallout
from the 2008 implosion of the mortgage market was still settling over the
American economic landscape in mid February 2009, when Barack Obama’s party
passed a massive $787 billion
stimulus designed,
ostensibly, to staunch the bleeding. Not long after that, the president
announced plans to spend $75 billion — $25 billion more than initially
advertised — to support monthly mortgage payments for distressed homeowners and
forestall a wave of foreclosures. This, treasury secretary Timothy
Geithner said,
would help shore up the nation’s teetering banking system, keep interest rates
low, and prop up the value of America’s housing market. CNBC business reporter
Rick Santelli was not convinced.
“The
government is promoting bad behavior,” he famously
boomed from
the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. “Do we really want to subsidize
the losers’ mortgages?” he asked the traders by whom he was surrounded. “This
is America! How many of you people want to pay for your neighbor’s mortgage
that has an extra bathroom and can’t pay their bills?” A chorus of boos erupted
from the floor. Santelli joked about harnessing the anger he’d channeled into a
“Chicago tea party,” but conservatives took him literally, creating the populist
movement that
fueled a Republican resurgence.
Though
the moral hazard Santelli raged against was real enough in 2009, so, too, was
the threat to the macroeconomy represented by the subprime-mortgage crisis. In
2023, those conditions are no longer present, but the Biden White House is
acting like they are.
Once
again, the administration is prepared to “subsidize the losers’ mortgages,” so
to speak, and not in any effort to save the economy or help Americans avoid
destitution. The Biden administration’s only goal is to purchase the loyalty of
prospective homebuyers who are locked out of the property market by high
real-estate prices and rising interest rates — rising interest rates
necessitated, in part, by the administration’s reckless spending. And Americans
who did everything right are going to suffer, perversely enough, because they
did everything right.
The
administration is set to enforce a new rule that will compel potential
homebuyers who spent their lives paying their bills on time and building good
credit scores to pay more for their mortgages. Why? To subsidize the loans
assumed by higher-risk borrowers. Beginning May 1, prospective homeowners with
a credit rating of 680 or more “will pay, for example, about $40 per month more
on a home loan of $400,000,” the Washington
Times reported
this week. “Homebuyers who make down payments of 15% to 20% will get socked
with the largest fees.”
Federal
Housing Finance Agency director Sandra Thompson tried to reassure borrowers
that there would be “minimal” fee changes associated with the increased
“pricing support for purchase borrowers limited by income or by wealth.” That
is cold comfort to the loan officers who expressed
their exasperation over
this distortion of the real-estate market at a time when low inventory, excess
demand, and high borrowing costs have combined to produce a substantial
shortage of affordable housing.
Those
conditions will be exacerbated in August, when the FHFA is set to
impose a new upfront fee on certain borrowers with a debt-to-income ratio over 40 percent,
which one financial-services consultant said was also designed to hurt “better
credit quality borrowers” to “subsidize the fee reductions for lesser credit
borrowers.”
It’s
difficult to understate the perverse incentives this act of bribery will
encourage. You’ve spent your adult life borrowing responsibly and paying your
bills on time. You’ve saved for years to acquire enough money for a down
payment on a home that approaches the rate at which you can avoid a Federal
Housing Administration–subsidized loan and the premium it imposes on your
mortgage insurance. For all your diligence and hard work, the Biden
administration will now punish you only so that consumers who were not
similarly conscientious can have access to better mortgage rates and lower down
payments. Knowing that, why on earth would you devote yourself to an
unrewarding enterprise like thrift when someone, somewhere will foot your bill
regardless?
Even
more grotesque is the fact that this political payoff to what Democrats regard
as core constituencies is designed to mitigate the effects of an orgy of
spending that was itself little more than a political payoff to core Democratic
constituencies.
In
January, the publication Clever Real
Estate surveyed
millennials looking to purchase a home and found that over 90 percent of those
polled said inflation had become an obstacle to buying a home, eclipsing buyer
competition. Nearly half cited high interest rates as their primary concern,
and a quarter of prospective homebuyers had put off purchasing property. The
stress associated with saving to purchase a home in this environment led more
than half the millennials surveyed to confess that they were “reduced to tears”
by the process.
The
interest rates that dissolved these young adults into puddles of anxiety were
rendered necessary not just by the cash the federal government hemorrhaged as a
response to Covid but also by the Democratic Party’s effort to use Covid as
cover in pursuit of more parochial goals.
The
party in power spent billions of
taxpayer dollars bailing
out union pension funds, backstopping the budgets of Planned Parenthood and the
National Endowment for the Humanities, and helping profligate municipalities
like San Francisco bridge their budget gaps. It spent over a trillion on
“infrastructure,” which provided a “tremendous
boost” to the law
firms that represent developers, lenders, investors, environmental-impact
specialists, and private-equity funds. It subsidized billions in child-care costs for
Americans struggling through school closures at the tail end of the Covid pandemic,
which it had encouraged by allowing recalcitrant
teachers’ unions to
set the bar for what constitutes a “safe” reopening inordinately high. And when
all this spending overheated the economy, the party passed the “biggest piece
of climate legislation in history” under the assumption that the cure for the ills of too much spending
was even more spending.
Now, as
the Fed seeks to raise the costs of borrowing and restore price stability, the
consequences of the Democrats’ spending binge are being felt most acutely by a
demographic that disproportionately votes Democratic. So, what do Democrats do?
Complicate the Fed’s work further and make it illogical to devote yourself to
sound financial habits.
It is a
profound irony that the supposedly populist iteration of the GOP is not nearly
as well positioned to take advantage of this catalyst for a populist revolt as
the GOP of 2009 was. Maybe Republicans can summon the enthusiasm to craft and
sustain a messaging campaign against this attack on personal responsibility;
after all, they’ve done
it before. But if
they can’t take this ball and run with it, they should get off the field.
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