By
Charles C. W. Cooke
Thursday,
April 13, 2023
I know,
I know, I know. Don’t shout at me. I don’t want it to be true, either. But, on
balance, I think it is fair to say that Joe Biden is more likely to
win the election next year than is a Republican challenger. Biden is unpopular,
yes. But he’s not that unpopular. And, besides, it’s difficult
to defeat incumbent presidents at the best of times. Are these the best of
times? I think not. The Republican brand is still badly damaged by Donald Trump
and the riots of January 6. Republican primary voters seem determined to
continue to pick unpalatable candidates who drag their tickets down. The
overturning of Roe v. Wade, while necessary, has presented
conservatives with a new set of political challenges. And the chaos of Covid
has disappeared. At this rate, inflation and gas prices will both be down by
next year, and interest rates will soon follow. Providing that President Biden
can avoid falling off a stage or collapsing during an interview, he’ll be in a
good position to be reelected.
I can,
of course, construct a scenario in which Biden loses in 2024. He already seems
ancient and out of it, and, this time around, he will not be able to spend the
entire election season hiding in his basement. It seems possible that there
will be a recession next year, which, for a hostage-to-fortune candidate, could
be uniquely damaging. And, on a whole host of important social issues, the
Democrats really are crazy. But if Republicans think that even these serious
liabilities will make next year’s campaign an easy one, they are deeply, deeply
delusional. Since 1992, the GOP has won the popular vote just once.
And, since 2016, they’ve put off millions of the suburban voters on which they
have relied since 1968. Even absent that burden, it would have been responsible
for Republicans to consider themselves the underdogs. With it, they should assume
that they’re going to start the game ten points down.
I have
been unsparingly critical of Donald Trump since he tried to stage a coup in
early 2021, but I will admit that even I had underestimated how much damage he
had done to the party in the medium term. In 2022, anyone who was even
remotely tied to Trump and his disgraceful behavior was
punished by voters for this transgression. I must ask: Does the current GOP
look to you as if it has learned its lesson? Almost everywhere, Trump is
leading in the primaries, while his preferred candidates from last year’s
midterms are gearing up for a rerun. Certainly, there are some bright spots in
the party: Brian Kemp, Ron DeSantis, Greg Abbott, Mike DeWine, and others all
cruised to reelection last time around, and, despite the disappointment
overall, Republicans took control of the House. But presidential elections are
not won in red states or in the House; they’re won in the middle. And, with a
handful of exceptions, Republicans are still happily talking amongst
themselves.
They
ought to stop and go outside. One of the key virtues of conservatism is the
ability to see the world as it is, rather than as one would like it to be. I
would like nothing more than for Joe Biden to be reviled for the dangerous fraud that he is. I’d like to see
his approval rating slip into the 20s, to see voters punish him for his brazen
irresponsibility,
to see his half-century of stupidity, demagoguery, and lies end in ignominy.
But, at the moment, that doesn’t look especially likely. At the moment, Biden
is getting away with it — just as he always has. In 2024, Biden will have the
power of incumbency, the unwavering support of the media, another enormous cash
advantage, and a
voting public that is in the habit at present of giving Democrats the benefit
of the doubt. If they are to have any hope of breaking through, Republicans
will have to recognize the enormous challenge they will soon face, and get
their act together across the board. Contempt, like hope, is a lousy
political strategy.
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