By Noah
Rothman
Thursday,
March 09, 2023
You might
have heard that a grand political realignment is upon us. The coalitions that
make up the Democratic and Republican bases are shifting, as are their
political priorities.
When it
comes to the conduct of American affairs abroad, the political dynamic is most
unsettled. Once skeptical of foreign entanglements, Democrats and their elected
representatives are now increasingly inclined toward a more extroverted
American presence on the world stage. The opposite is said to be true of
Republicans: Not only has the GOP abandoned doctrinal commitments to preemption
and proactivity in foreign affairs, but the party’s loudest champions also
promise to hunt down and excommunicate any remaining dissenters from their new
orthodoxy.
Donald
Trump is surrounded by advisers besotted with the idea that they are the
vanguard of a new, less-interventionist Right, and he exudes the same sort of
confidence as they do. “We are never going back to a party that wants to give
unlimited money to fight foreign wars that are endless wars, that are stupid
wars,” Trump boomed in a March 6
speech to the
audience at CPAC. “We will expel the warmongers!”
But such
talk of purges is gradually replacing the idea of a wholesale ideological
renovation out of necessity. As the GOP House majority — a caucus supposedly
recast in Trump’s image — indicated on Wednesday, the grand
anti-interventionist realignment has been a spectacular dud.
“Congress
has never authorized the use of military force in Syria. The United States is
currently not in a war with or against Syria, so why are we conducting
dangerous military operations there?” Representative Matt Gaetz (R., Fla.)
asked in a late-February floor speech in support of the concurrent resolution
he’d introduced, which would have compelled Joe Biden to withdraw the roughly
900 U.S. troops stationed in Syria. “President Biden must remove all U.S. Armed
Forces from Syria. ‘America First’ means actually putting the people of our
country first — not the interests of the military–industrial complex.”
This has
become a recurring theme for Gaetz. In an interview
with Donald Trump Jr. last
week, the congressman indicted the “deep state” for maintaining a U.S. presence
in Syria over President Trump’s objections. The mission in the Levant “is
indicative of this neoconservative worldview,” he insisted. He blamed “the Bush
Republicans, the Boltonistas, the Cheneyites,” Nikki Haley, and even
congressional Republican leaders for failing to recognize that No True Republican disagrees with him. This
itemization of the forces arrayed against Gaetz’s policy preferences cautioned
against the triumphalism he displayed in his floor speech. But Gaetz still
wanted to test the proposition with a vote, which proved clarifying.
Gaetz’s resolution
failed on Wednesday, with 321 members, including 171 Republicans and 150
Democrats, voting no.
Insofar as this vote was at all indicative of a political realignment, the
evidence for that can be found in the fact that more Democratic members voted
with Gaetz than Republicans, and most of those Democrats are members of the
Congressional Progressive Caucus.
“America
First” Republicans frequently cast their critics as hopeless ideologues who
would sacrifice the nation’s practical interests in the pursuit of highly
theoretical goals. But the Republicans who spoke out against Gaetz’s resolution
objected primarily to the impracticality of his preferences. “Even though ISIS
no longer controls significant territory, there are still tens of thousands of
hardened terrorist fighters in Iraq and Syria who are hellbent on establishing
their terror state,” warned the House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman,
Representative Mike McCaul (R., Fla.). “Either we fight and defeat them in
Syria, or we’ll fight them in the streets of our nation,” said Representative
Ryan Zinke (R., Mont.). To this, freshman representative Anna Paulina
Luna (R.,
Fla.) objected, insisting that ISIS “has been destroyed” and “a few hundred
troops will not stop the next terrorist.com, and that’s never going to end.”
But ISIS
has not, in fact, “been destroyed.” “Terrorist.com” is a domain that is
presently available, if you’re foolish enough to purchase it. And it’s hard to
think up a more defeatist proposition than the idea that transnational Islamist
terrorism cannot be disrupted proactively, the failure of international
Islamist organizations to execute another spectacular attack on U.S. soil since
9/11 notwithstanding.
Every
U.S. president since George W. Bush has campaigned against the Global War on
Terror’s open-ended defense commitments, and every U.S. president since George
W. Bush has prosecuted the war with gusto while in office. Gaetz and company
may be tired of terrorism, but the threat persists.
As Jay Nordlinger
chronicled in
late January, the U.S.-led counterterrorism operations that we know
about are regularly producing headlines that anyone invested in
neutralizing the threat posed by Islamist radicalism should welcome.
“U.S.
Special Operations commandos killed a senior Islamic State leader in an
early-morning helicopter raid in a remote area of northern Somalia on
Thursday,” the New York
Times reported
in late January. That coup followed the Islamic State’s announcement in
November of last year that its new leader — the figure who replaced Abu Bakr
al-Baghdadi after a Donald
Trump-approved operation took him off the battlefield in 2019 — had been killed in battle
by Syria’s “anti-government
rebels.”
The
GOP’s Matt Gaetzes and Anna Paulina Lunas have put themselves in a precarious
position. They disapprove of America’s commitments abroad but welcome the
successes those commitments produce. Indeed, they promise more, similar
successes, even as they argue for relinquishing the tools needed to secure
them. They cast aspersions on the proxy forces that serve as America’s partners
— and, therefore, limit the American footprint necessary to achieve our
operational goals — while at the same time celebrating those forces’
battlefield efficacy. The contradictions are mounting.
And yet,
while this faction of the GOP has a distorted view of its primacy within the
Republican coalition, their criticisms of the status quo are not entirely
ill-considered. As Roll Call reported yesterday, “even many
critics of the specific concurrent resolution on the floor said it was time for
a broader review” of the post-9/11 resolution authorizing the use of military
force against al-Qaeda and its allies. The AUMF provides legal authority to
execute kinetic operations against designated terrorist entities and proactive
deployments to places such as Iraq. Democratic and
Republican lawmakers alike,
even those who aren’t skeptical of the War on Terror, increasingly believe it
needs to be retired.
“However,”
Representative Abigail Spanberger (D., Va.), one such lawmaker, said, “that
does not mean that we should abandon ongoing operations that keep the United
States safe, that are authorized under the 2001 AUMF.” This logic should lead
lawmakers to conclude that the 2001 AUMF, if it was repealed, would have to be
quickly replaced with something that provided similar legal authority for the
ongoing operations they support. In a statement provided to the Washington
Post’s Olivier
Knox, Joe Biden’s National Security Council endorsed a congressional effort “to
ensure that outdated authorizations for the use of military force are replaced
with a narrow and specific framework that will ensure that we can continue to
protect Americans from terrorist threats.”
Here,
the “America First” GOP enjoys the advantage of consistency. The coalition of
lawmakers who support the operations authorized by the 2001 AUMF also want to
replace that legislation with something “narrow and specific,” even as the
scope of the terror war has broadened. The legal authority that resolution
bestowed on the president to strike al-Qaeda targets has since been applied to
organizations as divergent as the Islamic State, Somalia’s al-Shabaab, and the
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. A new resolution could replace the 2001
AUMF’s references to “al-Qaeda” with references to “designated terrorist
groups,” but that would hardly be more “narrow and specific.”
So, the
Syria vote provided some clarity about the extent to which the vaunted rise of
inward-looking populist nationalism has been overblown — but that was all the
clarity we got.
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