By Jim Geraghty
Thursday, March 24, 2022
When the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, as the Biden
administration had predicted it would, some analysts wondered if President
Biden would enjoy a “rally around the flag” effect in his job approval numbers.
If you look at the polls collectively . . . nope. It is difficult to see that
the developments in Ukraine had any impact at all. Since last fall, Biden’s
disapproval number has consistently been above 50 percent, and his approval rating has
been hanging around 42 percent over at the FiveThirtyEight
aggregate, and the numbers don’t look any different in the RealClearPolitics average.
A new Associated Press poll out this morning tells a familiar
story:
There is widespread public support
for sanctions imposed by the United States on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine,
including a ban on importing Russian oil. However, President Biden has yet to
see praise for his efforts to isolate Russia and aid Ukraine. Fifty-six percent
of Americans think Biden’s response has not been tough enough.
With the crisis in Ukraine escalating,
few Americans have a high degree of confidence in Joe Biden’s ability to
effectively handle a crisis, effectively manage the military, or promote the
standing of the United States in the world.
Fifty-six percent of Americans feel
that Biden’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has not been tough
enough. Few believe his response has been too tough and only 36 percent say his
response has been about right. Assessments of his response are split on party
lines with 53% of Democrats saying his response is about right while most
Republicans and independents believe it has not been tough enough.
You have to wonder if the debacle of the Afghanistan
withdrawal is having a lingering effect on how Biden is perceived in this
current foreign-policy crisis, particularly when you see poll results such as
this one: “Few have overwhelming confidence in Joe Biden’s ability to manage
his presidency. Confidence in his ability to manage the military dropped to 26
percent from 35 percent in January 2021. Americans’ confidence in his ability
to listen to his advisers and experts declined even further to 32 percent, down
from 47 percent in January 2021.”
In most parts of the country, President Biden will not be
an asset to endangered House and Senate Democrats running for reelection. Biden’s job approval in Arizona is 36 percent — that’s
not going to help Senator Mark Kelly, or make Senator Kyrsten Sinema feel much
pressure. (Sinema isn’t up for reelection until 2024.) Biden’s approval rating
is even lower in Georgia, at 33 percent — which won’t help Senator Raphael
Warnock. In other states with potentially vulnerable Democratic incumbents, it
looks equally bad: His job approval is 42 percent in New Hampshire (Maggie
Hassan), 40 percent in Colorado (Michael Bennet), and 36 percent in Nevada
(Catherine Cortez Masto).
Democrats have high hopes of knocking off incumbent GOP
senator Ron Johnson in Wisconsin — the third straight cycle they’ve seen him as
easy pickings. Here too, though, Biden’s job approval is in the same ballpark
at only 40 percent.
Republicans are defending open Senate seats in
Ohio, where Biden’s job approval is 40 percent, in Pennsylvania,
where his job approval is 36 percent, and in North Carolina, where his job
approval is 37 percent. Democrats dream of knocking off incumbent senator Marco
Rubio, but in Florida, Biden’s job approval is 36 percent.
In other words, all over the map, Biden will only be
useful in turning out the vote in deep, deep blue corners of these contested
states. It is conceivable that some endangered incumbents may not want Biden
coming to their state at all.
As for Vice President Kamala Harris, her approval ratings
are a few points lower than Biden’s — a pretty striking result, since there
aren’t many policy differences between the two of them. The problems of
Harris as vice president have been discussed at length, but this week brought a new report that makes Harris
look particularly petty and obsessed with her personal image instead of the
actual problems facing the country. The anecdote that Harris kept expressing
frustration about the photo of her on the cover of Vogue is
just mind-boggling:
“Harris was wounded. She felt
belittled by the magazine, asking aides: Would Vogue depict
another world leader this way?” the duo reported.
Harris’ incoming press secretary
Symone Sanders, who declined to comment, reached Vogue editor Anna Wintour to
convey Harris’ frustration. Wintour, who did not respond to a request for
comment, protested that she had chosen the picture personally because it made
Harris “relatable,” according to Martin and Burns.
Incoming chief of staff Tina
Flournoy was caught “off-guard by the anger in Harris’ circle” and contacted a
senior Biden campaign official. Given the country’s myriad crises and the
recent January 6th riot at the Capitol, “[t]he Biden adviser told Flournoy that
this was not the time to be going to war with Vogue over a
comparatively trivial aesthetic issue. Tina, the adviser said, these are
first-world problems,” according to the excerpt.
(I have no idea who that unnamed Biden adviser is, but I
do remember who retweeted a declaration that the inflation and
supply-chain crises were “high class problems.”)
Do we know this anecdote is true? No, but it is a bit like the reports of a staffer complaining
that Harris doesn’t read her briefing materials. If Harris reads and
studies her briefing materials thoroughly, she hides that fact amazingly well.
There’s little sign that she is about to enjoy a sweeping turnaround in her
public perception; she’s not going to be much of an asset for Democrats in the
2022 midterms, either.
An Ugly, Ugly Issue Environment
Finally, what Democrats should really be freaking out
about is the accumulating evidence that the problems facing the country right
now are unlikely to be resolved by November. Fed chair Jerome Powell said on Monday that the
argument that inflation would peak in the first quarter of this year is
“falling apart” and pledged that “these policy actions and those to come will
help bring inflation down near 2 percent over the next 3 years.” The next three
years? Imagine high inflation bedeviling the American people, and the Biden
presidency, until 2024 or 2025!
There’s also little or no sign of relief on gas prices:
“We’re now predicting a yearly
national average of $3.99. I think that’s pretty likely to stick,” says Patrick
De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for Gas Buddy. He says that prices at the
pump reflect the current prices of about $115 for a barrel of oil. But if oil
prices jump up by $20 per barrel — something not seen since 2008 — then the
pace of retail gas price increases will accelerate again.”
In California, prices are already above $6 per gallon in some places.
And those supply-chain issues aren’t quite gone,
either. General Mills says it’s still having trouble getting Pillsbury
dough or Totino’s pizza rolls to consumers, and projects that it’ll be able
to meet consumer demand 80 percent of the time in the ongoing quarter; in
normal circumstances, it meets the demand 98 to 99 percent of the time. Maine
syrup producers say they still can’t get plastic jugs. Fried fish is in short supply just as Lent increases demand —
at least on Fridays. Girl Scout cookies aren’t immune. I’ve also noticed that
certain brands of shampoo never seem to be in stock at my local CVS.
Our Dominic Pino, who keeps an eye on the trade and
economic issues that almost everyone else ignores, has been tracking the work
stoppage at the Canadian Pacific freight-rail company — thankfully, the work stoppage was a brief one, but it was
one more slowdown of getting goods from producers to consumers.
Oh, and on top of all that, the Biden administration expects even bigger waves of migrants
at the country’s southern border in the coming months.
An unpopular president, high inflation, high gas prices,
high food prices, pervasive economic frustrations from a labor shortage and
supply-chain problems, a border crisis, and a widespread perception that the
president isn’t being tough enough with an aggressive foreign autocrat
launching a war in Europe. It’s just about the perfect storm for Democrats who
have wildly overpromised and underdelivered since taking over the House and
Senate in January 2021.
And while the pandemic is fading from American life,
let’s not forget Biden’s wildly unrealistic pledge: “I’m going to shut down the
virus!” Lots of Americans just don’t see the president as an effective
problem-solver anymore, and that perception will be difficult to change.
Republicans are consistently leading in the generic-ballot
polling, which almost never happens. In fact, the GOP enjoyed an astounding
advantage in the ABC News poll last month: “Republican congressional candidates have a 49 percent to 42
percent advantage over Democrats among registered voters, widening to 54
percent 41 percent among those who say they both are registered and certain to
vote in November.” A 54–41 split on House elections in November would generate
not merely a red wave but a red tsunami that would make the Republican waves of
2010 and 2014 look modest.
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