By Philip Klein
Thursday, March 17, 2022
Most conservatives who would prefer to see a
different Republican presidential nominee in 2024 are hoping and praying that
Donald Trump makes things easier for his party by simply choosing not to run
again. But there would be a number of benefits to his making another
presidential bid — as long as he loses the Republican primary.
Earlier this week, Charles Cooke made the case that there are plenty of viable,
fighting, conservative candidates whom the party could nominate in 2024, so
there would be no reason to risk another Republican defeat by renominating
Trump. Thus, I will refrain from restating the substantive argument against
Trump. But it’s important to consider the two scenarios under which Trump is
not the 2024 nominee: Either he chooses not to run, or he runs and loses.
The first scenario is by far the preferred one for most
Republicans and conservatives who would like to see the party move on from
Trump. It’s clean and the most direct way to avoid another Trump nomination.
Were he to run again, he would become the instant front-runner, whereas he
obviously cannot win a nomination if he does not run.
Trump’s running would mean months of relitigating his
grievances from the 2020 election in addition to generating new controversies.
Given his track record of turning the base against anybody who challenges him —
even conservatives in previously good standing — a Trump run could mean
decapitating a whole new generation of Republican talent. Or, forcing many
potential candidates to wait until 2028, when circumstances may not be as ripe
for a Republican victory.
Even if Trump loses, the story may not end there. He
could claim the primary was rigged, keep attacking the nominee throughout the
fall, and turn off much of the base ahead of the general election.
Having said all that, it’s worth considering some of the
benefits of his running — and losing the primary.
To start, it’s no secret why Trump is so effective at
getting so many Republicans to clap like trained seals. Trump has demonstrated
an incredible amount of allegiance among the Republican base, and any
Republican who wants a future in politics is reticent to risk alienating those
voters.
Thus, even if Trump does not run, he will cast a shadow
on the 2024 election. Any viable Republican candidates will be eagerly
jockeying for his approval in the primary. Whether or not he still holds the
amount of sway over the party’s voters that he once did, no ambitious candidate
will be willing to risk being overly critical of him. And in the general
election, that candidate will have to strike a delicate balance between
appeasing Trump and appealing to a broader electorate. While Governor Glenn
Youngkin was able to walk this tightrope in Virginia, it will be a lot harder for
Trump to avoid the national spotlight than it was for him to steer clear of a
gubernatorial race in a state he lost badly.
However, were another Republican to defeat Trump, it
would disrupt this entire narrative. Suddenly, somebody else will have shown that
it’s possible for a Republican to go up against Trump, and not only survive,
but win. Or, to put it in the immortal words of pro wrestler Ric Flair, “To be
the man, you gotta beat the man.”
A primary would also provide a built-in opportunity for
the eventual nominee to create some distance from Trump in the general
election. Any attempts to link the nominee to Trump will fail, because the
nominee will have just come off a bitter primary against Trump. When asked to
respond to anything Trump says or does, the candidate could simply wave away
the question by pointing out that differences with Trump were spelled out
during the primary and emphasize that it’s now time to focus on his or her own
vision for leading the country.
While some argue that a divisive primary would spill over
to the general election, there is also a flip side to this argument. Barack
Obama ultimately benefited from his protracted primary against Hillary Clinton
in 2008, because he gained experience and it left him better prepared. He was a
significantly stronger and more seasoned candidate by the summer of 2008 than
when he first announced his campaign in early 2007. Any Republican who survives
a primary with Trump would be much more prepared for any general-election
matchup.
Also, despite the likelihood that Trump would claim any
election he loses was rigged, it will be much harder to pull off in a primary.
It’s much easier to convince Republican voters that there were shenanigans
going on in Milwaukee, Philadelphia, or Atlanta than it would be to argue that
Republican-controlled primaries in states such as Iowa and South Carolina were
somehow fixed to steal the election from him. Having chosen another candidate,
the base would likely have much less patience for attempts by Trump to sabotage
the nominee and help the Democrats keep the White House.
But there is a more fundamental reason that it would be
good for Trump to lose a primary. If the rise of Trump has taught us anything,
it’s that the direction of the GOP will not be driven by party bosses,
prominent media figures, or any other elites. It will be ultimately determined
by the people. Until Trump is defeated among a Republican electorate, he will
still command an enormous amount of influence within the party. Trump’s losing
to another Republican at the ballot box is the only way for Republicans to
truly move on.
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