By Bjorn Lomborg
Thursday, March
03, 2022
We live in an age of fear —
particularly, a fear of climate change. One picture summarizes this age for me.
It is of a girl holding a sign saying “You’ll die of old age. I’ll die of
climate change.”
This is the message that the media are
drilling into our heads: Climate change is destroying our planet and threatens
to kill us all. The language is of apocalypse. News outlets refer to the
“planet’s imminent incineration,” and analysts suggest that global warming
could make humanity extinct in a few decades. Recently, the media have informed
us that humanity has just a decade left to rescue the planet, that 2030 is the
deadline to save civilization, and that we must radically transform every major
economy to end fossil-fuel use, reduce carbon emissions to zero, and establish
a totally renewable basis for all economic activity.
The rhetoric on climate change has become
ever more extreme and less moored to the actual science. Over the past 20
years, climate scientists have painstakingly increased knowledge about climate
change, and we have more — and more-reliable — data than ever before. But at
the same time, the rhetoric that comes from commentators and the media has
become increasingly irrational.
The science shows us that fears of a
climate apocalypse are unfounded. Global warming is real, but it is not the end
of the world. It is a manageable problem. Yet we now live in a world where
almost half the population believes that climate change will extinguish
humanity. This has profoundly altered the political reality. It makes us double
down on poor climate policies. It makes us increasingly ignore all other
challenges — from pandemics and food shortages to political strife and
conflicts — or subsume them under the banner of climate change.
This singular obsession with climate
change means that we are now going from wasting billions of dollars on
ineffective policies to wasting trillions. At the same time, we’re ignoring
ever more of the rest of the world’s more urgent and much more tractable
challenges. And we’re scaring kids and adults witless, which is not just
factually wrong but morally reprehensible.
If we don’t say stop, the current, false
climate alarm — despite the good intentions behind it — is likely to leave the
world much worse off than it could be.
We need to dial back on the panic, look at
the science, face the economics, and address the issue rationally. How do we
fix climate change, and how do we prioritize it amid the many other problems
afflicting the world?
Climate change is real, it is caused predominantly
by carbon emissions from humans burning fossil fuels, and we should tackle it
intelligently. But to do that, we need to stop exaggerating, stop arguing that
it is now or never, and stop thinking that climate is the only thing that
matters.
Many climate campaigners go further than
the science supports. They implicitly or even explicitly suggest that exaggeration
is acceptable because the cause is so important. After a recent U.N.
climate-science report led to over-the-top claims by activists, Joel Smith, one
of the scientist authors, warned against exaggeration. He wrote, “We risk
turning off the public with extremist talk that is not carefully supported by
the science.” He is right. But the impact of exaggerated climate claims goes
far deeper.
We are being told that we must do
everything right away. Conventional wisdom, repeated ad nauseam in the media,
is that we have only until 2030 to solve the problem of climate change. This is
what science tells us!
***
But this is not what science tells
us. It’s what politics tells us. This deadline comes from politicians asking
scientists a very specific and hypothetical question — basically, What
will it take to keep climate change below an almost impossible target (2
degrees centigrade, or 3.6°F)? Not surprisingly, scientists responded
that doing so would be almost impossible, and getting anywhere close would
require enormous changes to all parts of society by 2030.
Imagine a similar discussion on traffic
deaths. In the United States, 40,000 people die each year in car crashes. If
politicians asked scientists how to reduce the number of road deaths to zero,
an almost impossible target, one good answer would be to set the national speed
limit to 3 mph. Probably nobody would die. But science is not
telling us that we must have a speed limit of 3 mph — it only informs us
that if we want zero deaths, one simple way to achieve that
would be through a nationwide, heavily enforced 3 mph speed limit. Yet how to
make the trade-off between a low speed limit and a connected society is a
political question for all of us.
Today, such is our single-minded focus on
climate change that many global, regional, and even personal challenges are
almost entirely subsumed by climate change. Your house is at risk of flooding —
climate change! Your community is at risk of being devastated by a hurricane —
climate change! People starving in the developing world — climate change! With
almost all problems identified as caused by climate, the apparent solution is
to drastically reduce carbon dioxide emissions in order to reduce the effects
of climate change. But is this really the best way to help?
If you want to help people in the
Mississippi floodplains lower the risk of flooding, there are policies that
will help more than cutting carbon dioxide, and they would also be faster and
cheaper. These could include improving water management, building taller dikes,
and implementing stronger regulations that allowed some floodplains to flood so
as to avoid or alleviate flooding elsewhere. If you want to help people in the
developing world avoid starvation, it is almost tragicomic to focus on cutting
carbon dioxide. Better crop varieties, more fertilizer, market access, and
general opportunities to get out of poverty would help them so much more,
faster, and at lower cost. If we insist on invoking climate at every turn, we
will often end up helping the world in one of the least effective ways
possible.
As a species, we are not on the brink of
imminent extinction. In fact, quite the opposite. The rhetoric of impending
doom belies an absolutely essential point: In almost every way we can measure,
life on earth is better now than it was at any time in history.
Since 1900, we have more than doubled our
life expectancy. In 1900, the average life span was just 33 years — today it is
more than 71. The increase has had the most dramatic impact on the world’s
worst-off. Health inequality has diminished significantly. The world is more
literate; child labor has been dropping; we are living in one of the most
peaceful times in history. Between 1990 and 2015, the percentage of people in
the world practicing open defecation dropped from 30 to 15 percent.
The planet is getting healthier, too. In
the past half century, we have made substantial cuts in indoor air pollution,
previously the biggest environmental killer. In 1990, pollution caused more
than 8 percent of deaths; this has almost halved, to 4.7 percent, meaning that
1.2 million people survive each year who would have died. Higher agricultural
yields and changing attitudes to the environment have meant that rich countries
are increasingly preserving forests and reforesting. And since 1990, 2.6
billion more people have gained access to improved water sources, bringing the
global total of people with access to improved water to 91 percent.
Many of these improvements have come about
because we have gotten richer, both as individuals and as nations. Over the
past 30 years, the average global income per person has almost doubled. That
has driven massive cuts in poverty. In 1990, nearly four in ten people on the
planet were poor, meaning they made less than $1.90 per day. Today, it is less than
one in ten.
When we are richer, we live longer and
have better lives. We live with less indoor air pollution. Governments provide
more health care, build better safety nets, and enact stronger laws and
regulations to battle pollution and protect the environment.
Significantly, progress has not ended. The
world has been radically transformed for the better in the last century, and it
will continue to improve in the century to come. Analysis by experts shows that
we are likely to become much, much better off in the future. Researchers
working for the United Nations suggest that by 2100, average incomes will
greatly increase, perhaps to 450 percent of today’s incomes. Life expectancy
will continue to increase, to 82 years or possibly beyond 100. As countries and
individuals get richer, air pollution will reduce even further.
Climate change will have a negative impact
on the world, but it will pale in comparison with all the positive gains that
we have seen so far and that we will continue to see in the century ahead.
These gains that we both have seen and will see come from the general economic
development described above. The best current research shows that the cost of
climate change by the end of the century, if we do nothing, will be less than 4
percent of global GDP. This includes all the negative impacts — not just the
increased costs from stronger storms but also the costs of increased deaths
from heat waves and the lost wetlands from rising sea levels.
This means that instead of seeing incomes
rise by 450 percent by 2100, they might increase by “only” 434 percent. That’s
clearly a problem. But it’s also clearly not a catastrophe. As the members of
the U.N. Climate Panel put it themselves: “For most economic sectors, the
impact of climate change will be small relative to the impacts of other drivers [such
as] changes in population, age, income, technology, relative prices, lifestyle,
regulation, governance, and many other aspects of socioeconomic development”
(italics added).
This is the information we should be
teaching our children. The young girl holding the sign that reads “I’ll die
from climate change” will not, in fact, die from climate change. She is very
likely to live a longer, more prosperous life than her parents or her
grandparents, and she will be less affected by pollution or poverty.
***
In my new book False Alarm:
How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix
the Planet, I examine the culture of fear that has been created around
climate change. I clarify what the science actually tells us. What is the cost
of rising temperatures? After that, I assess what’s wrong with today’s
approach. How is it that climate change is at the front of our minds, yet we
are failing to solve it? What do we achieve by making changes to our
lifestyles? What are we achieving collectively, with promises made under the
Paris agreement on climate change? And finally, the book explores how we can
actually solve climate change. We need to prioritize policies such as green
innovation and adaptation in order to rein in temperature rises and leave the
planet in the best shape possible for our grandchildren.
We have it within our power to make a
better world. But first, we need to calm down.
Note: This essay is adapted from the
author’s book, False Alarm:
How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix
the Planet.
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