By Rich Lowry
Tuesday, March
29, 2022
Joe Biden is engaged in the most
extensive test since Jimmy Carter of whether an American president can survive
elevated levels of inflation, and it’s not going well.
The latest NBC News poll has Biden at a
dismal 40 percent approval rating that, if it doesn’t change, will end the
careers of Democrats up and down the ballot in November’s midterm elections.
According to the poll, only a third of people approve of Biden’s handling of
the economy, a low that most presidents have needed a recession to hit. This
number has sunk steadily — along with Biden’s overall standing — from 52
percent in April of last year.
Inflation, which increased 7.9 percent
from February 2021 to February 2022, is top of mind for voters. In the survey,
35 percent of people said cost of living is the first- or second-most important
issue to the country. Climate change, in contrast, is at 17 percent and the
pandemic at 8. Given the choice, 68 percent would rather see Biden make
reducing inflation and improving the economy his top priority, not the war in
Ukraine.
Elevated inflation represents a trifecta
of doom for incumbent presidents.
Does it impact the lives of people in a
discernible way that they will notice no matter what the president says or the
media cover? Yes.
Does it cut the pay of workers unless
there are steep increases in wages? Yes.
Does it make the president seem powerless
to control events? Yes.
A common question in the media a while ago
was, Why do people felt badly about a good economy? Paul Krugman wrote a column
last year headlined “The Making of a Feel-Bad Boom.” The question, though, was
miscast. An economy in which wages are effectively falling is not a good
economy, at least it isn’t going to be felt as positive by most people as such.
Even though wages grew by a robust 5.1
percent year-over-year this February, that wasn’t enough to keep up with rising
prices. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, real average hourly
earnings declined 2.6 percent from February 2021 to February 2022. During that
twelve-month period, the month-to-month change in real hourly wages was
positive in only two months.
This is presumably why the NBC poll found
that 62 percent say that their family income is falling behind, 31 percent say
that it is staying about even, and just 6 percent believe it is going up.
Biden could combine the political talents
of FDR and Reagan, the oratorical skills of Lincoln and JFK, and the common
touch of Jackson and Truman, and this sense of falling behind would still be
eating away at the foundations of his presidency.
Biden’s default has been to reassure the
public that inflation is only transitory, to place it in the context of global
supply-chain issues beyond the control of any one person, and to blame various
malefactors, whether meat companies or Vladimir Putin, for surging prices. But
the buck still stops with the president, even if the dollar has less purchasing
power than it did a year ago.
Biden hasn’t resorted to anything as
readily mockable as President Gerald Ford’s “Whip Inflation Now,” or WIN
buttons in 1974, but he’s flailing around nearly as badly. (Inflation did, by
the way, drop steeply from 1974 to 1976, but it took a recession to achieve
this momentary win.)
He’s mostly trying to rebrand spending
initiatives that he already supported as steps toward curbing costs.
Regardless, the Federal Reserve has a huge role and, so far, it, like the
administration, has been slow to catch up to the new inflationary reality.
The American public has had no such
luxury. For all of us, increased prices are a reality in our daily lives, and
no amount of spin is going to change that. Unless conditions markedly improve
soon, Biden’s experiment is going to end very badly for him and his party.
No comments:
Post a Comment