By Nick Catoggio
Monday, November 17, 2025
My favorite detail about The Big Rift of 2025 is where
the president was and what he was doing as it played out.
The Big Rift cracked open on Friday evening when Donald
Trump excommunicated
“ranting Lunatic” Marjorie Taylor Greene from his movement and called for
challengers in her next House primary. Their break-up had been building for
months, as Greene has grown noticeably
bolder lately in challenging Trump’s policies. But the final straw appears
to have been her unshakeable support for releasing the Justice Department’s
files on Jeffrey Epstein, against the president’s wishes.
Trump is mad about that. Big mad. Mad enough to
have observed in another post on Friday that Rep. Thomas Massie, the chief
Republican sponsor of the bill to release the files, sure
did remarry awfully fast after his wife’s death last year.
But most of his anger was reserved for Greene, whom he
spent the rest of the weekend calling “Marjorie
Taylor Brown” (“Green grass turns Brown when it begins to ROT!”) and whom
he branded in subsequent posts as a traitor not just to her
party but to her
country. It was the populist equivalent of declaring jihad against
an apostate.
And he issued these, surreally, while he was busy raising
money for the RINO di tutti RINOs, Lindsey Graham.
“What a great day playing golf with President Trump! So
much fun today at the Trump Graham Golf Classic, that will benefit the
Republican cause greatly,” the senator tweeted on
Saturday over a photo of himself and Trump horsing around on the links during a
fundraiser. It was the president’s first
in-person appearance this year at a donor event for a midterm candidate—in
this case, an ultra-hawkish former John McCain crony despised by the right’s
postliberal base.
Ten years into the MAGA era, ardent “America First-er”
Marjorie Taylor Greene was deemed an enemy of the revolution on the same
weekend that careerist establishmentarian Lindsey Graham was being bathed
in Trump-generated cash. If you’re a populist who’s grown disaffected with the
president (and there are quite
a few of those lately), that’s as glaring a “from
pig to man, and from man to pig” moment as you’ll ever get.
Normally that’s where the story would end. But this time
something strange happened. Late Sunday, the newly anathematized Marjorie
Taylor Greene … won.
“As I said on Friday night aboard Air Force One to the
Fake News Media, House Republicans should vote to release the Epstein files,
because we have nothing to hide, and it’s time to move on,” Trump announced
on Truth Social. Despite strenuous efforts, he had failed to pressure Greene
(and two other Republicans) to oppose Massie’s Epstein bill and realized that
he was about to lose tomorrow’s floor vote—possibly
in a landslide. So he capitulated, giving the House GOP his “permission” to
vote yes to spare himself the stark embarrassment of being defied.
Marjorie Taylor Greene won. In fact, not only did she win
on Epstein, she won an early test of political strength with the president back
home. On Saturday the chairman of the Republican Party in her district rebuked
Trump’s demand for a primary challenger by reiterating that Greene has the “full and unwavering
support” of his organization.
For three reasons, The Big Rift is a big deal.
The decider.
To begin with, it’s a serious threat to the president’s
previously unquestioned authority to define what is and isn’t MAGA orthodoxy.
Trump has invoked that authority repeatedly over the last
six months to deflect criticism from his right flank. Last week, Fox News host
Laura Ingraham asked him whether his support for H-1B visas for skilled
immigrants contradicted MAGA dogma. “MAGA was my idea. MAGA was nobody else’s
idea,” he replied.
“I know what MAGA wants better than anybody else, and MAGA wants to see our
country thrive.”
He gave a similar answer in June when The
Atlantic pressed him to square his attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities
with his “America First” commitment to avoiding foreign conflicts. “Well,
considering that I’m the one that developed ‘America First,’ and considering
that the term wasn’t used until I came along, I think I’m the one that decides
that,” the president said.
Trumpism has always been a
moral project more so than a political one. It has its own internal moral
code of ruthlessness and it demands from supporters a degree of devotion and
obedience more common to religion than to politics. When Trump speaks of
getting to decide what “MAGA” and “America First” mean, he’s claiming a quasi-papal
prerogative to speak ex cathedra. As the founder of the faith, his
pronouncements are necessarily infallible.
Not anymore, says Greene. The Epstein rebellion among
House Republicans stands for the proposition that MAGA populism has discrete
ideological content beyond the president’s whims and daily political needs and
that, when those two conflict, loyalty is owed
to the former, not the latter. That’s not just heretical, it’s schismatic.
Greene herself resorted to religious lingo in her first
of three tweets responding to the president this weekend. “I don’t worship or
serve Donald Trump,” she wrote, noting their
disagreement over the Epstein files. “Most Americans wish he would fight this
hard to help the forgotten men and women of America who are fed up with foreign
wars and foreign causes, are going broke trying to feed their families, and are
losing hope of ever achieving the American dream,” she added.
“America First” means something. That’s been the
thrust of all of her criticism of him over the last few months, most notably
when she broke with
the GOP during the government shutdown by backing funding for Obamacare
subsidies. “America First” means helping Americans struggling with insurance
costs. “America First” evidently also means making sure Americans get the truth
they’ve been seeking about Jeffrey Epstein—even if that makes life painful for
the president.
Call it a populist Reformation if you like. Instead of
letting a corrupt seat of authority dictate the tenets of the faith, Greene and
the Epstein rebels want to devolve the power of deciding what MAGA means to the
faithful. Or at least to more puritanical populists like Greene herself.
This is the first time in the Trump era, I believe, that
the president’s supremacy as arbiter of populist orthodoxy has been
successfully challenged. And success breeds success: Having just asserted
themselves on Epstein, who’s to say whether emboldened populists won’t feel
their oats and push back aggressively if the U.S. starts bombing Venezuela
tomorrow? “Regime change is ‘America First!’” the president will bellow. Greene
and her fans will answer: “Says who?”
I would not have guessed that Marjorie Taylor Greene, a
notorious Trump-slobberer even by modern Republican standards, would lead the
first meaningful right-wing rebellion against autocracy of this era.
A moral critique.
The most interesting dimension of Greene’s response to
Trump was only tangentially related to Epstein. As their dispute unfolded this
weekend, she ended up making a traditional moral critique of the president’s
behavior, which is unheard of for a prominent figure on his populist flank.
On Saturday, after he had publicly un-personed her as a
member of MAGA, she alerted her millions of followers that his fans had begun threatening her life,
sending pizzas to her home to let her know that they have her address and
phoning in a bomb threat to her business. “As a Republican, who overwhelmingly
votes for President Trump‘s bills and agenda, his aggression against me which
also fuels the venomous nature of his radical internet trolls (many of whom are
paid), this is completely shocking to everyone,” she complained.
It’s not shocking to anyone. Ask Mike Pence, Jeff
Sessions, Liz Cheney, and Mitt Romney, to name a few examples, what happens
when a Republican who agrees with Trump on most policies crosses him on a
matter of personal “loyalty.” Intimidation is and will always be the
stock-in-trade of populism because populists believe all political problems are
ultimately tests of will. Simply apply enough pressure to break the will of
whatever’s standing in your way, including death threats if necessary, and the
problem is solved.
It is very late in the game for Marjorie Taylor
Greene to suddenly be waking up to this, particularly given the occasional harassment
and intimidation
to which she stooped in her not-very-long-ago activist days. “I would like to
say humbly I’m sorry for taking part in the toxic politics,” she told
CNN in an interview when asked about that on Sunday. “It’s very bad for our
country, and it’s been something I’ve thought about a lot, especially since
Charlie Kirk was assassinated … I’m committed, and I’ve been working on this a
lot lately, to put down the knives in politics. I really just want to see
people be kind to one another.”
I don’t believe a word of it. Her conscience was never
bothered before (publicly, at least) when Trump put a Democrat or centrist
Republican in MAGA’s crosshairs, which he does routinely. No one with earnest
qualms about leopards
eating people’s faces would wait until their own face was devoured to
articulate them.
But the fact that she’s insincere shouldn’t blind us to
the significance of her pretending otherwise.
In a pseudo-religious movement like Trump’s, the only
moral standard to which the president will be held by his disciples is the one
he’s created for the movement. If he favors foreigners over Americans by
supporting H-1B visas, that’s a moral betrayal. If he gives in to some
Democratic demand instead of pulling out all the stops to “fight” back
ruthlessly, that too is a moral failure.
He’ll never be held to traditional moral standards
against, say, taking bribes or corrupting
the government or sexually harassing women—or riling up his fans to menace
someone who’s angered him—because to do that would lead inescapably to the
conclusion that he’s unfit to lead. So right-wing populists have turned a blind
eye to every bit of it, not wanting to admit the truth of his critics’
indictment of his character. “I don’t like the mean tweets” is as close as
they’ve gotten to admitting that he shouldn’t be president, which isn’t very
close at all.
Until now. “When the President of the United States
irresponsibly calls a Member of Congress of his own party, traitor, he is
signaling what must be done to a traitor,” Greene wrote in another
tweet on Sunday, correctly. Trump is behaving immorally by inciting supporters
to intimidate his enemies and she isn’t afraid to say so; if populists like her
are suddenly willing to hold him to traditional moral standards like that one,
maybe going forward they’ll be willing to speak out against some of his many, many
other moral failings that have otherwise required Republican omerta since
2015.
Whether she’s sincere about it or just needling him
opportunistically arguably doesn’t matter, in the same way that it arguably
doesn’t matter whether Nick Fuentes is an earnest neo-Nazi or a clever troll
targeting an underserved audience. Fuentes emboldens his admirers to speak up
by using his platform to weaken the taboo against the beliefs they share. The
same might go for Marge Greene with respect to calling out the president’s
lousy behavior.
The benefit of the doubt.
The most subversive thing about this episode, though, is
her willingness to question Trump’s motives in resisting the release of the
Epstein documents. Greene actually tiptoed up to the line in her tweets this
weekend of wondering whether he might not be implicated in the matter after
all.
“It’s astonishing really how hard he’s fighting to stop
the Epstein files from coming out that he actually goes to this level,” she marveled on Friday,
leaving the reader to wonder why. The next day, in her tweet about being
threatened by Trump’s fans, she wrote pointedly, “I
now have a small understanding of the fear and pressure the women, who are
victims of Jeffrey Epstein and his cabal, must feel.” The insinuation was
clear: Maybe Epstein’s old buddy Donald honed his craft at intimidating enemies
as part of that “cabal.”
That goes way beyond challenging Trump on who rightfully
should decide what “America First” means. She’s calling the president’s
populist credibility into question. And no wonder, as Jonathan
Last notes: For once, he finds himself leading an establishment attempt to
suppress the truth about a suspected conspiracy rather than leading an outsider
insurgency to expose it.
When the pope is openly in league with Satan, the church
is ripe for schism. In a populist us-and-them movement as feral as MAGA, Greene
is implying that the leader no longer deserves an insuperable benefit of the
doubt as to whether he’s more “us” than “them.”
And that matters, short-term and long-term. For one
thing, it matters to how the Epstein saga will play out after tomorrow’s House
vote. Lost in Trump’s call for House Republicans to release the files is the
fact that he could call for the DOJ to release the files at any time.
Normally his fans wouldn’t corner him by demanding that he be proactive and do
so. But what happens now that he’s lost some of the benefit of the doubt?
What happens if Trump quietly encourages Senate
Republicans to kill the House bill after it passes? That would be awkward given
that he’s claiming “we
have nothing to hide”; if that’s so, there’s no reason for the Senate not
to pass the bill either. But let’s say they kill it at his behest, or they pass
it and he
vetoes the legislation. Will he get the benefit of the doubt about his good
intentions from MAGA, as he’s always done before?
What if Trump signs the bill—and then Attorney General
Pam Bondi declares that the DOJ can’t release the
files on grounds that, conveniently, there’s now a criminal investigation
pending into Epstein’s relationship with Democrats that the president ordered
just a few days ago. (The House can have “whatever they are legally
entitled to,” he said in his Truth Social post on Sunday, an important caveat.)
Will populists accept that, or will they see it for what it is, a transparent
attempt by Trump to create a “legitimate” pretext for continuing to suppress
the files?
Never mind Epstein, though. What about 2026 and 2028?
Trump losing credibility among his base would make
politics more volatile than it already is, transforming a pseudo-religious
movement into something more like a traditional political movement. The
president, hostile to accountability in any form, would yearn for the sense of
impunity he’s enjoyed from having the right’s unconditional support since 2015
and would hunt for ways to restore it. Probably that means new us-and-them
provocations designed to get Republicans to side with him tribalistically against
the left.
I suspect he’s more likely to invoke the Insurrection Act
at a moment when he fears he’s losing his base than when he’s riding high with
them.
Meanwhile, the more he slides toward lame-duckery, the
more anxious he’ll become about Democrats romping in next fall’s election and
making his last two years in office miserable. His attempt to interfere in the
midterms has
already begun but will grow more aggressive as his political position
weakens. At some point the 2020 playbook will be rolled out and Republicans
will be told that another nefarious Democratic plot to steal power is afoot.
How will those Republicans react to a second “stop the
steal” campaign led by a president who lacks the degree of credibility on the
right that he had five years ago? How would the kinder, gentler Marjorie Taylor
Greene react, now knowing firsthand what it’s like to be on the wrong side of
the president’s wrath when the demagoguery is dialed up to 11? How would she
react to Trump sending the regular military against American citizens under the
Insurrection Act, for that matter? Do her misgivings about “toxic politics”
include Trump’s fash-iest gambits?
They haven’t in the past, but do they now?
In time I wonder if we’ll view this episode as a
momentous one for Trump’s presidency, not because it led to something
incriminating being released in an Epstein document dump (Pam Bondi won’t let
that happen) but because a
disillusioned MAGA will probably be a less fanatic MAGA. The more
reason Republicans have to look forward to a post-Trump era, the less obliged
they should feel to support every corrupt thing he does to try to hold onto
power.
Or so an optimist would say. A pessimist would say that
The Big Rift will blow over the moment the Supreme Court strikes down his
tariffs, sending figures like Greene into a frenzy about impeaching Amy Coney
Barrett and packing the court or what not. Optimist or pessimist: Guess which
one I am.
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