By Kevin D. Williamson
Sunday, February 28, 2021
The bloody year of 1968 was an extraordinarily violent
one in the United States, with the murder rate increasing almost 13 percent
year-over-year, the largest such increase that had been recorded before or
since.
Until now.
In 2020, murders were up 21 percent, according to FBI
data. Data from the 60 largest U.S. cities collated
by the Intercept found murders up 36 percent in those cities, almost
three times the previously unmatched frenzy of 1968.
The homicidal wave rolled through the big cities (New York
City saw a nearly 50 percent bump in its murder count), through small towns
(according to the Intercept, towns with fewer than 10,000 residents saw
a slightly larger increase than cities with more than 1 million residents), and
through medium-sized cities, including my hometown of Lubbock, Texas, which had
more than twice as many homicides in 2020 as it had in 2019 and where one out
of every 100 residents is a victim of a violent crime in a typical year.
Inevitably, the usual political ghouls are
opportunistically trying to recruit all these dead Americans into their
political campaigns and their just-so narratives.
Sometimes, that means trying to blame the rampage on
guns. But there is not much reason to do so. Gun sales have indeed been very
high in the past year, partly because of an instinct to arm up during times of
social and economic disruption, and partly because those of us not ensorcelled
by QAnon fairy-tales could see long before November that Donald Trump was
likely to lose the presidential election and that he might take the
Republicans’ Senate majority down with him, and that he would be replaced by a
Democrat hostile to the Second Amendment. Even though the scary-looking black
rifles that haunt the dreams of Democrats are used in only a vanishingly small
share of murders (statistically, you are more likely to be clubbed to death or
stabbed than to be shot by someone wielding an AR-style rifle, or, indeed, any
rifle of any sort), they are the first weapons gun-grabbers are disposed to go
after. Call it panic buying or call it prudence, elections have the power to
move gun markets.
But more gun ownership does not mean more violent crime.
There is very little correlation between those variables. And part of that is
the fact that so many U.S. murders involve no firearms at all: Typically,
firearms are involved in about two-thirds of U.S. murders, with the other third
caused by stabbings, beatings, intentional drownings, poisonings, etc.
Americans are much more likely to be shot to death than are Swiss, Japanese, or
Emiratis, but they also are more likely to be stabbed to death, beaten to
death, killed with an ax, etc. The variable that seems to be the best indicator
is not the presence of firearms but the presence of Americans.
There is not much reason to believe that the COVID-19
lockdowns or the anti-police protests are a main cause of the higher murder
rate. The murder rate already was up year-over-year in many communities before
the lockdowns began, and murder rates already were elevated before the protests.
In New York, the increase grew more dramatic as the year went on, as was the
case in some other cities; but in places such as Austin and Minneapolis, the
most dramatic increase came in the first quarter. Though many of the protests
were themselves violent and hence contributed to the gross increase in violent
crime, there is little evidence linking increases in murder rates to, say,
police redeployments associated with the protests and riots. Complaints about
the atmosphere of lawlessness in places such as Portland, Seattle, and
Minneapolis are not without basis, and lawlessness can be contagious, but these
complaints are for the most part vague and unsupported by rigorous analysis.
They are a matter of mood rather than a matter of metrics.
Of course all of these elements interact with each other
in ways that are easy to imagine but difficult to really pin down: The
lockdowns increased the population of idle young men with circumscribed social
lives, which is generally dangerous; the lockdowns coincided with an increase
in alcohol consumption, which is very strongly linked to domestic violence; the
lead-up to the election saw a significant increase in first-time gun ownership
and mirror-image apocalyptic political tendencies on either side of the political
spectrum; the riots produced both an atmosphere of lawlessness and an
exaggerated sense of vulnerability; the coronavirus epidemic stimulated the End
Times sensibility that is always present, if just beneath the surface, in
American culture.
Much of the summer was taken up by irresponsible
right-wing media figures warning of a second civil war and irresponsible
left-wing activists endeavoring to make the case for the irresponsible
right-wingers. But our poisonous political culture is the effect, not the
cause, of our broader social and moral dysfunction. The uptick in violence is
simply a dramatic and deadly manifestation of our underlying spiritual and
intellectual chaos.
Nothing happened to us in 2020. We happened.