By David Harsanyi
Tuesday, February 16, 2021
This past Sunday, Bill Gates (net worth, $133 billion)
and Anderson Cooper ($110 million) got
together on 60 Minutes to discuss the numerous sacrifices Americans
will be expected to make to avert an imminent climate catastrophe.
First, we should refrain from referring to these sorts of
conversations as “journalism,” since Cooper never challenges any of Gates’s
wild predictions nor displays even a hint of professional skepticism regarding
the subject matter. Cooper simply cues up the next talking point like a host of
an in-house corporate video.
Gates, who has a new book out called “How to Avoid a
Climate Disaster,” told Cooper that he believes that climate change “is the
toughest challenge humanity has ever faced,” and wealthy nations — not China or
India, one assumes — must get to zero carbon emissions by 2050 or the world is
basically kaput. Not 40 percent. Not five. Zero. Elsewhere in the interview,
Gates called for a nationalistic “all-out effort, you know, like a world war,
but it’s us against greenhouse gases.”
Americans use over 20
million barrels of petroleum products every day — now more abundant and easier
to extract than ever before — so, unless some completely new technology
emerges, it will take a fascistic technocracy to win this conflict. Now, I
don’t use “fascistic” lightly here. Nor am I suggesting that Gates envisions
goose-stepping Gestapo agents banging on your door every time you set the air
conditioner below 75 degrees. And, anyway, what kind of monster would own an
air conditioner with an extinction-level threat hanging over humanity? He does,
however, envision the state dictating virtually every decision made by industry
that relates to carbon emissions — which is to say the entire economy. If there
is a more precise phrase that describes a state-controlled economy that directs
both private and public ownership over the means of production during wartime, I
will be happy to use it.
Of course, if Gates is interested in fighting a war
against carbon dioxide from his
66,000 square foot home, that’s his business. I hope he invests heavily in
new energy technologies — in addition to his private-jet
company — because the ones we have now are hopelessly inadequate to the
task of attaining the future he envisions, not to mention prohibitively
expensive for the average person who bears the costs of the artificial
scarcity.
During cold weather this week, energy prices spiked in
Texas and other states, and millions faced rolling blackouts — already the norm
in California — partly because significant fossil-fuel-generation capacity has
been surrendered to unreliable wind and solar alternatives. It’s not just cost,
it’s reliability.
That said, Gates’s book is most interesting when he is
proposing ideas. Some seem silly and needless, but others such as carbon capture,
thermal storage, cheap hydrogen, and next-generation nuclear plants are
compelling enough. Even I — a self-professed troglodyte and genuine fan of
fossil fuels — would be happy to switch it up once other affordable and
reliable sources emerge.
But while Gates is far more honest about the tradeoffs of
decarbonization than others, like most climate warriors, he still relies
heavily on fearmongering and dire predictions to make those costs appear
palatable.
Gates, for instance, told Cooper that “the Syrian War was
a twentieth of what climate migration will look like.” (Is “a twentieth of the
Syrian War” a scientific calculation?) In his book, he claims that in “the
worst drought ever recorded in Syria — which lasted from 2007 to 2010 — some
1.5 million people left farming areas for the cities” and set the stage “for
the armed conflict that started in 2011.”
The climate crisis has been ongoing for decades, we’re
told, yet Gates is reduced to talking about Syria — whose conflict
environmentalists blame on climate change, and others of us blame on sectarian
violence, ISIS, and Baathist strongmen — because so few wars are fought over
resources anymore. While Gates has been warning about the climate crisis,
millions of people worldwide have secured regular access to food
and water
for the first time. Whereas the natural elements once regularly killed many
Americans, since 1980, all death
caused by natural disasters and heat and cold is well under 0.5 percent of
the total. Deaths due to climate events have plummeted. Extreme global poverty has plummeted. State-based
conflicts have
plummeted. Air pollution has
plummeted and deaths from air pollution have
plummeted. When the state of the earth is improving in almost every
quantifiable way, alarmists are compelled to rely on prophecies that have not
only been notoriously wrong but rarely take into account human adaptability.
“How might climate change affect you and your family?”
Gates rhetorically asks in his book. Every situation he offers as a reason for
concern would almost surely be worse without affordable energy. Gates, for
example, argues that rainfall has become less predictable for farmers. Some
years they have 22 inches. Other years, 29. In the past, rainfall was
apparently the same every year. Gates cobbles together a few stories about
farmers struggling with this problem. Our very food is at risk, he warns. “It
may sound as if I’m cherry-picking the most extreme example, but things like
this are already happening,” Gates concedes, “especially to poor farmers, and
in a few decades they could be happening to far more people.”
Yes, Gates cherry-picks throughout the book. American
farming yields have dramatically
increased because of technological efficiencies. Farmers have adapted to
recent climate variations, as they’ve been doing for thousands of years. Food
is now far more affordable, “especially” for the poor. Gates’s ideas would
threaten this reality far more than climate change would.
Gates underplays just how difficult it will be to replace
all of our cement and steel infrastructure with high-tech versions. Or how
difficult it will be to replace all of our heating and air systems. Or how
difficult it will be to move the country toward synthetic beef. “You can get
used to the taste difference,” Gates assures us.
At one point, Gates mentions a study that finds that a 90
to 95 percent decarbonizing of the European power grid is expected to “cause
average rates to go up about 20 percent.” Well, a 20 percent hike on your
energy bills would damage the economy enough. That cost will also be borne by
consumers of . . . everything. Unsaid is the fact that countries such as
Germany, without a 90 percent decarbonizing, already have the highest
electricity prices per household in the world, followed by Denmark, Portugal,
and Belgium. In fact, eight of the world’s top ten priciest energy markets can
be found in Europe. The difference between what Americans and Europeans pay
for energy is huge. Germany is making deals with Russia to build a
natural-gas pipeline, not another solar farm. And good luck getting Americans
to pay eight bucks a gallon for gas.
Here’s what Gates should also be asking: “How have fossil
fuels affected American families?” The answer is: They have made their lives
better in incalculable ways. And while there are some negative externalities
associated with fossil fuels, we have mitigated many of them. He should ask:
“Is it worth intentionally creating great economic hardship for America and
upturning modernity every year for the next 30 years?” Because that is the only
way we get to zero carbon emissions in 30 years.
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