By Steven A. Camarota
Sunday, February 28, 2021
Earlier this month, Politico
ran a story about a growing number of congressional Democrats who are worried
that their party’s expansive approach to immigration may be unpopular with
voters. Recent trends in polling data suggest that those Democrats are right to
be concerned.
Rasmussen Reports has asked the same ten immigration questions
every week since the middle of December 2019. The answers had been generally
stable until late last year, when they began to shift markedly toward favoring
more border enforcement, opposition to amnesty, and less legal immigration. It
seems that Joe Biden’s election, and the rhetoric and policies of his
administration, are alienating a significant share of voters. It is also
possible that a larger share of centrist voters no longer see the issue as
inextricably connected to Donald Trump and his polarizing style. Whatever the
reason, if Rasmussen is right, public sentiment is moving away from Biden and
his party on immigration.
As a candidate,
Biden committed his administration to reducing immigration enforcement,
increasing legal immigration, and giving legal status to illegal immigrants. In
pursuit of the first priority, he has already undertaken a number of executive
actions, including revoking
the Trump administration’s efforts to punish sanctuary cities and reviving “catch
and release” at the border. As for the second priority, on legal
immigration, Biden has already announced a substantial increase in refugee
resettlement.
Yet, executive actions can go only so far. The
centerpiece of the administration’s legislative efforts on immigration is the
proposed U.S. Citizenship Act of 2021, which would give amnesty to all illegal
immigrants, reduce immigration enforcement, and significantly increase legal
immigration.
As with the administration’s executive actions, it is
hard to know the extent to which the public is aware of the bill’s particulars.
It is also hard to know how much the public is following the “Biden surge” unfolding
at the border. But the trends in the Rasmussen poll suggest that at least some
significant share of the public is paying attention and do not like what they
see.
One of the questions Rasmussen has been asking for the
last 61 weeks is whether the government is doing too little or too much to
reduce illegal border crossings and visitor overstays. As Figure 1 indicates,
responses to this question shifted almost immediately once Biden won. On
November 3, 40 percent of the public thought we were not doing enough to
control illegal immigration, but today 55 percent think so. Since neither the
question’s wording nor the method used to collect the survey has changed, it
seems fair to conclude that a much larger share of the public now thinks we
need to do more to stop illegal immigration.
Another interesting result from the Rasmussen poll is a
large increase in the share who oppose “giving lifetime work permits to most of
the estimated 12 million illegal residents” in the country (Figure 2). Why
Rasmussen refers to “work permits” rather than “legal status” or “citizenship”
is not clear. Nevertheless, the wording has remained constant since 2019, so
the shift in responses likely reflects a real change in public sentiment.
In the poll released on February 18 of this year, 55
percent said they were strongly or somewhat opposed, compared with just 39
percent who supported the amnesty. Given that the question asks about “work
permits,” perhaps the results reflect public concern over COVID-related
unemployment. But unemployment has been high since March of last year, and the
unemployment rate is a good deal lower now than it was back then. So it is hard
to believe that the public suddenly became more concerned about that issue in
just the last two months.
When the details of the administration’s amnesty bill
leaked in January, the limited media coverage it received was generally
positive. Nonetheless, some share of the public may have become aware of — and
turned off by — the truly
enormous scale of the administration’s proposal.
Contained within the broader amnesty proposal is a
version of the DREAM Act, which would give legal status and eventual
citizenship to those who came to the country at younger ages. It has always
been the most popular type of amnesty with the public. Every week in which
Rasmussen asked the question, a majority of the public strongly or somewhat
favored “giving lifetime work permits” to “illegal residents” who came as
minors (Figure 3). However, since the start of this year, support for the DREAM
amnesty has fallen precipitously, while opposition has risen. The 50 percent
who now support the amnesty is still higher than the 43 percent who oppose it,
but the current gap is much smaller than the 58–36 advantage right before
Christmas.
This huge decline in support for the DREAM Act is perhaps
the most difficult to explain because it is hard to find any stories in the
mainstream media that mention the cost of the bill, even though CBO estimated
the net fiscal impact in 2017
and again 2019
and both times found it would create a large net fiscal drain. Moreover,
virtually every story on the “Dreamer” population portrays them in a very sympathetic
light. Yet the public has become dramatically less inclined to give them legal
status, perhaps because they increasingly sense that the Dreamers are being
used as props to secure a much larger amnesty that covers all illegal
immigrants.
There are other questions in the Rasmussen immigration
series, some dealing with the number of legal immigrants who should be allowed
into the country, and others asking about guest workers, chain migration, and
immigration-induced population growth. While it is not the case for all of the
questions, the results generally show that the public wishes to see more
enforcement and greater limits.
Of course, no survey is definitive, and none flawlessly
captures public attitudes about a complex topic such as immigration. The 2016
and 2020 elections were stark reminders that our ability to measure public
sentiment with polling is far from perfect. But by asking the same ten question
for more than a year, Rasmussen has captured a real trend in public opinion
that single-shot polls cannot.
Keep Rasmussen’s trend lines in mind as the amnesty
debate heats up. We can expect an avalanche of single-shot polls that
incorporate the administration’s preferred language in their questions. These
polls will ask about “earned legalization” for “workers” and “children” who
must “learn English,” “pay back taxes,” and “pay a fine.” The fact that the
actual amnesty is in no way earned, and is not limited to workers or children,
and most certainly does not require English, back taxes, or a fine, will make
little difference to those who design polling questions. Given the favorable
language and lack of any trend data, the administration and allied media will
use these polls to claim that a majority of voters support amnesty. In reality,
Biden is facing strong headwinds as he moves forward with his stated goal of
radically expanding immigration.
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