By David French
Friday, August 05, 2016
The Great
Cratering is upon us. According to the RealClearPolitics average, Donald Trump
is losing to Clinton by almost seven points, the battleground polls look
terrible, his net favorability rating is minus 26 (a 16-point gap with
Clinton), and the betting markets give him an almost 80 percent chance of losing the presidency. Only the most
deluded Trump loyalist — the kind of person who measures support by counting
Trump signs in his neighborhood or comparing rally attendance numbers — would
think things are going well for their man. But who’s to blame for his fall? Is
it those elitest GOPe jerks at Never Trump? Hardly. A few points:
1. We Never
Trumpers must be the most powerful “losers” in history. I can remember just
days ago when we were completely irrelevant, the Trump Train had driven
straight over our cuck bodies, and it was cruising straight to the Oval Office.
Now that Trump is slumping Never Trump is suddenly so powerful that “assholes”
like the Wall Street Journal’s Bret Stephens (to quote Trump acolyte Sean
Hannity) should be “held accountable” if Hillary wins.
2. The real story is much less dramatic. Never Trump’s
actual electoral influence — to the extent it had any — peaked during the
primaries. In a base election, Never Trump writers, thinkers, and pundits
reached a much higher percentage of the electorate. Our great failure wasn’t so
much in persuading people not to vote for Trump — he won with the lowest
percentage of the vote of any GOP nominee in the primary era (even when he was
unopposed for the last few contests) – but in creating a movement that could
unite behind a single candidate. For lack of true leadership, the movement was
lost.
3. Never Trump still has some electoral influence, but
it’s at the margins. The electorate is spiking from the 31 million who voted in
the GOP primary to the almost 130 million who are expected to vote in the
general election. While our collective reach isn’t small (in the millions), it
often overlaps, is hardly monolithic, and simply can’t reach a significant
fraction of the total vote. In other words, engineering a large-scale, national
polling swing is well beyond Never Trump’s political capacity.
4. Even if Never Trump has a considerable megaphone, it’s
dwarfed by Trump’s media-amplified reach. In other words, we can’t reach nearly
as many people with a message about Trump as Trump can reach with a message
about himself. He’s the central actor in this drama, and his performance is the
one that matters most, by far.
5. Thus, the real
goal of Never Trump isn’t so much to beat Trump in the general election (Trump
is proving quite good at beating himself) but to preserve the intellectual and
moral foundation of the conservative movement. If Trump and his acolytes are
the arsonists — torching the ideas and values that will best secure our
inalienable rights and our national prosperity — then Never Trump seeks to be
the firefighters. And it’s not just vital that we preserve the viability of
conservative ideals, but that we also preserve the credibility of conservative
thinkers. Ideas need ambassadors, and Trump’s loyalists are shredding their
long-term credibility with every passing day.
Trump is to blame for his troubles. He is losing to Hillary Clinton. He would rather humiliate his opponents than unify the party. He is the Democrat demagogue who secured
the nomination. He is the person who
mocks conservative values and scorns conservative ideas. That’s all on him, not
on Never Trump.
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