By Jim Geraghty
Tuesday, August 30, 2016
The perpetual defense for almost every disappointment of
the Obama presidency has been, “Look at what he inherited!” It’s a familiar
litany: two wars, a Wall Street meltdown, General Motors on the verge of
collapse, an economy plunging into recession . . .
It’s not difficult to picture Democrats making the same
argument a year from now if Obama’s preferred successor, Hilary Clinton, wins.
“Sure, people are frustrated, but look at what she inherited when she took
office: a slow economy, Obamacare in a death spiral, serious racial tensions,
and the growing threat of ISIS!”
Economic growth has been around 1 percent for the past
three quarters, not quite a recession but not, by any stretch, robust: 0.9
percent in the fourth quarter of 2015, 0.8 percent in the first quarter of
2016, and 1.1 percent in the second quarter. The good news for Obama’s legacy
is that once the recession officially ended in June 2009, the economy stayed in
positive territory. The bad news is that the economy has now failed to reach
reach 3 percent growth in any of the past ten years. In other words: For
millions of Americans, the recession’s aftermath hasn’t been much better than
the recession itself.
The Obama administration’s defenders will point out that
the unemployment rate is down to 4.9 percent and has steadily declined since
the spring of 2011. But that declining rate — accompanied, it must be said, by
a rapid decline in workforce participation — hasn’t created a broad sense of
prosperity or economic security. For the past four years, median weekly
earnings have increased less than 2 percent a year after inflation. The number
of Americans who are working part-time but want full-time work is around 6
million, the highest level in 30 years.
The Affordable Care Act was supposed to be this
president’s signature success story, but the news in 2016 is not good on that
front, either. Enrollment in the insurance exchanges for Obama’s signature
health-care law is at less than half the initial forecast, and insurers are
starting to recognize that even with the individual mandate, their new
customers are older, sicker, and more expensive than expected. Despite all the
promises about customer choice, there’s a good chance that at this time next
year, a third of all American counties will have just one single insurer on
their exchange, a de facto monopoly.
And more and more patients are finding the Affordable
Care Act isn’t that affordable. Premiums are rising this year, with “an average
jump of 62 percent for the biggest plan in Tennessee and increases of around 43
percent in Mississippi and 23 percent in Kentucky for large carriers.” The
median deductible in an employee-sponsored plan jumped from $1,000 in 2015 to
$1,500 in 2016.
Any further attempt to reform the health-care system will
carry the burden of Obamacare. The law didn’t just fail to live up to its
promises; it demonstrated to Americans that their elected leaders are every bit
as dishonest, devious, and arrogant as they feared. No, you can’t keep your
plan or your doctor, and very few people who voted for the law give a damn that
you can’t.
American views of race relations are at their worst since
the Rodney King verdict and Los Angeles riots. The Washington Post’s Eugene Robinson, usually a strong supporter of
President Obama, declared: “Obama will leave office without having healed the
nation’s festering racial wounds. He will not have made them worse; rather, he
will have allowed us to see how deep they remain and how much healing still
needs to take place.”
One might have expected the first African-American
president to aid in that healing, helping Americans see the perspective of
other groups, building trust, and alleviating grievances. Instead, Obama has
somehow ended up with the worst of both worlds. A significant portion of
whites, probably encompassing most of Donald Trump’s supporters, see the
president as opportunistically exploiting racial controversies. At the same
time, more than a few African Americans see Obama as a man who bent over
backwards to avoid controversies and
placate intolerant white Americans. They see a president who arrogantly
lectured the NAACP and other black audiences about their need to take
responsibility for their problems, a president who was unwilling to do much
beyond talk about incidents in Ferguson and who brought little real change to
the daily lives of black Americans. In 2016, everybody’s dissatisfied with the
state of race relations, and the next president is likely to have an even
tougher time navigating this emotionally fraught minefield.
In 2008, Obama campaigned on a pledge to end the Iraq
War, and his most trusted adviser, Valerie Jarrett, still lists “ended two
wars” as one of his accomplishments. Sadly, ISIS, al-Qaeda and other Islamist
groups haven’t ended their wars against America. Obama leaves his successor a
civil war in Syria that has killed about a half-million people and flooded
Europe with refugees. In Afghanistan, after 15 years of American combat, the
Taliban, according to the New York Times,
continues to “control or heavily influence about a half of the country.” ISIS
controls large portions of Libya; the U.S. is conducting airstrikes with
helicopters, and most of the public remains oblivious.
For now, Clinton will happily run close to Obama, who
remains an effective weapon on the stump, popular with large swaths of the
Democratic base. But if she wins and the state of the country fails to improve,
her old primary rival could quickly become her administration’s favorite
scapegoat.
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