By David Frum
Saturday, January 03, 2026
When Donald Trump claims a success, two things quickly
happen:
From the pro-Trump side, the American people hear a huge
and unanimous whoop of triumph.
Because the Trump movement is a cult of personality, with
no consistent principles and no concern for truth, many of its boosters don’t
care whether the success is real or phony. They don’t care whether the
advertised “success” actually happened the way Trump says it did. They don’t
care whether the so-called success achieves anything important or lasting. They
don’t care if there later turns out to be a corrupt underside. They celebrate
peace plans that don’t bring peace, trade deals that don’t enhance trade. The
Trump movement exists to glorify Trump, in all his erratic mania. Results in
the real world don’t matter.
From the anti-Trump side, meanwhile, the American people
hear a nervous rustling of vague doubts.
Because the anti-Trump side tends to care about facts, it
hesitates to speak before it knows what it’s talking about. There’s a decent
likelihood that the president’s story is a lie. But what kind of lie, covering
up what truth? Because the truth takes time to come to light, the anti-Trump
side will be slow to respond to the pro-Trump boast and brag.
Because most on the anti-Trump side care about
institutions, they measure their words so they won’t be misinterpreted as
criticism of those parts of the U.S. government that preexisted Trump and—they
hope—will survive him. Trump uses the military so often because he correctly
assesses that respect for the courage and professionalism of its personnel will
transfer to him.
Because the anti-Trump side cares about fairness, many of
its most prominent figures hesitate to accuse Trump of corrupt motives until
sufficient evidence emerges to support the accusation. That Trump has ordered
the military to seize an alleged drug-trafficking Latin American head of state
barely a month after he pardoned
and released a convicted drug-trafficking Latin American head of state is
suspicious, to say the least. But until and unless there’s something to back
those suspicions, and perhaps recalling the readiness of Trump’s regulatory
agencies to retaliate
against Trump-critical speech, many on the anti-Trump side deem it unwise to
voice them. The possibility that U.S. armed forces could have been deployed
because Trump insiders bought into a shady scheme to grab Venezuelan oil seems
far-fetched—yet it may be much more grounded in reality than any learned
article concocting a Trump grand strategy.
Because the anti-Trump side defends the rule of law, it
can be drawn into legalistic objections that sound pettifogging and irrelevant.
Americans want the flow of drugs reduced. They don’t much care how it’s done.
Many on the anti-Trump side are so rightly outraged by the
anti-constitutionality and illegality of Trump’s antidrug actions that they
leave to later how useless those actions often are. Over Trump’s first year in
power, the price of cocaine
in the United States has dropped steeply, the one price Trump has reduced. That
trend suggests that Trump’s multibillion-dollar operation against boats that
may or may not be carrying drugs is wasteful and even counterproductive—but
unless carefully stated, the arguments of the anti-Trump side can appear to
emphasize legal forms over the lives Trump falsely claims to be saving.
Because the anti-Trump side includes progressives and
others uncomfortable with American power, it often gets distracted by Trump’s
militaristic show—and fails to reckon with the president’s inner weakness. When
Trump officials briefed
Congress and the press about Venezuela, they disavowed a goal of “regime
change.” Now the U.S. has seized Nicolás Maduro, and some progressives have charged
Trump officials with lying to them. But the real problem is that those
officials may have been telling the truth. Just as Maduro’s dictatorial regime
allowed Venezuela’s apparatus of repression to outlive its founder, Hugo
Chávez, the removal of one regime figure now may merely transfer power to
another. The United States government recognized Edmundo González as the
rightful winner
of Venezuela’s 2024 presidential election. It will take more than an abduction
to bring González to power, however. The progressive impulse to blame Trump for
doing too much in Venezuela can obscure the reality that—for all the
noise—Trump may not have done enough.
Because the anti-Trump side is preoccupied with domestic
politics, it sometimes overlooks how Trump is corroding American leadership in
the world. The Venezuelan regime is broadly unpopular in Latin America; its
socialism of plunder has sent millions of desperate people into Colombia and
other states. But U.S. intervention is deeply mistrusted in the region,
associated much more closely with bringing dictators to power than with
toppling them. The administration could have courted greater legitimacy for its
actions by cooperating with regional partners, such as Colombia and Brazil,
which have both tangled
with the Maduro regime in the recent past. Refusing such cooperation is not
merely an incidental vice of Trump’s foreign policy. That vice is at its core.
Military action in Venezuela today without allies may prefigure action tomorrow
against allies—for example, to invade and annex Greenland. The big
strategic idea of the second Trump administration is that major powers are
entitled to dominate their neighbors: Russia to dominate Ukraine, China to
dominate its neighborhood, and the U.S. to rule over Venezuela, Greenland,
Panama, and ultimately Canada—Trump’s
desired “51st state.”
We’ll all know more soon about the Venezuelan operation.
But we know plenty already about the anti-Trump opposition. The qualities
itemized above are not all faults. It’s good to care about law, institutions,
and facts. But even good qualities can produce bad outcomes if they are not
self-understood, self-restrained, and directed in the service of good goals.
Trump thrives on the ineffectiveness of his opponents. The military operation in Venezuela is a warning that Trump’s imperial ambitions are growing. He’s building himself a triumphal arch in Washington. He craves gaudy acts to justify his monument to himself. He announced his operation first on his own wacky social-media platform, then on a phone call to Fox—as if his fan base were the only part of the nation to whom the president owed an explanation for his actions. Trump’s ego poses clear and present dangers to American democracy and American world leadership. An ineffective anti-Trump movement is an indulgence American democracy cannot afford or accept.
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