By Jim Geraghty
Saturday, January 03, 2026
One: We’re still awaiting more details, but if
U.S. military forces managed to get into Caracas, overpower or neutralize the
security personnel around President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, capture both
alive, and then fly them out of the country, it must rank among the greatest
special operations in U.S. military history.
U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi posted
on X Saturday morning that
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores have been
indicted in the Southern District of New York, and “they will soon face the
full wrath of American justice on American soil in American courts.”
Maybe Maduro will end up in the same cell in Federal
Correctional Institution Miami as former Panamanian dictator Manuel Noriega.
Two: Elliott Abrams, writing right here in National Review, yesterday:
Today there are
serious internal discussions about how to staff the cabinet once Maduro is gone
and González is sworn in, how to organize free elections in which traditional
parties including the Chavista party will be able to compete fairly, how to pay
the armed forces and win their loyalty, and all the other critical moves a new
government must make early on.
Either Abrams is spectacularly well sourced, or he’s
clairvoyant and I want him to tell me the Powerball numbers and who wins the
Super Bowl, too.
Three: You’d have to have a heart of stone to not
feel joy at the sight of Venezuelan people celebrating the end of Maduro’s
regime. Ian Bremmer wrote this morning, “removing Maduro from power
with no civilian casualties—and bringing him to the United States to face
justice—is the best possible near-term outcome trump could have hoped for.”
It’s also the best possible near-term outcome the Venezuelan people could have
hoped for, too.
Four: Maduro is likely in handcuffs somewhere, but the work of
overthrowing his regime and establishing a better, democratically elected
replacement is nowhere near complete. As of this writing, the current head of
state in Venezuela is vice president Delcy Rodriguez, who is demanding
the U.S. offer “proof of life” of Maduro. (Pal, I don’t think you’re in any
position to make demands.)
Five: Whatever the U.S. military does next, it
will not involve invasion and occupation, because we haven’t deployed a
sufficient number of troops to do that. As the December 22 Morning Jolt reported:
The known buildup of U.S. forces in the region is considerable
— “warships, surveillance craft, elite Special Forces units and the Navy’s
largest aircraft carrier,” and probably 10,000 troops and 6,000 sailors. But a Center for Strategic and International Studies review
concluded, “The current deployed assets are inadequate for larger and
riskier operations, such as a ground invasion or raids against drug cartels or
the Maduro regime. Doctrinal guidelines and past campaigns suggest that nearly
50,000 troops, at a minimum, would be required for an invasion.”
But as we saw this morning, those 10,000 troops and 6,000
sailors can do quite a bit.
Six: Boy, the Maduro regime’s “strategic partnership” with Russia sure came in handy,
huh?
Back on October 27, 2025:
Russian
President Vladimir Putin signed into law a Strategic Partnership Treaty
with Venezuela
on Monday, formalizing a broad cooperation agreement between the two countries
that extends across political, economic, and security domains.
The Kremlin said
the treaty, first signed in Moscow on May 7, expands collaboration in energy, mining,
transport, communications, and counterterrorism.
…Foreign Minister
Sergei Lavrov echoed that stance during a meeting with Venezuela’s ambassador
to Moscow, Jesús Rafael Salazar Velázquez, reaffirming Russia’s solidarity with
Caracas “in the face of growing external threats and attempts at interference.”
Yeah, well, those “growing external threats and attempts
at interference” just walked into Caracas and arrested the Venezuelan
president, and Russia has responded with a firmly-worded statement.
Because if there’s anything Vladimir Putin hates to see, it’s an “unacceptable
violation of the sovereignty of an independent state,” other than the
violations he commits.
Attention, rest of the world: When the you-know-what hits
the fan, a “strategic partnership” with Russia is about as valuable as two
tickets to the Fyre Festival.
Seven: Hey, guess which other hostile powerful state had a front-row seat for
the U.S. military operation?
According to
Venezuelan local media and Maduro’s social media channels, Maduro met with a
Chinese delegation at the Miraflores Presidential Palace hours before the
airstrike. The delegation included Lan Hu, Venezuela’s Chinese ambassador, Liu
Bo, Director-General of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs for Latin America and
the Caribbean, Wang Hao, Deputy Director-General of the same department, and
Liu Zhen, a regional official.
Can you picture these guys when they get back to Beijing?
“Well, boss, the good news is the meeting with Maduro went great. The bad
news is…”
Eight: As you’ve probably noticed, the Iranian regime is having a particularly rough start to 2026.
I think the outlook for Tehran’s cooperation with the Maduro regime in oil-smuggling
operations just got even cloudier.
Nine: I’ve heard people wondering whether
Secretary of State and acting National Security Adviser Marco Rubio really has
influence in this administration, or over President Trump’s thinking and
worldview. I think this operation answers that question definitively.
Ten: My old traveling
companion Kyle Orton observes that today, January 3, is the six-year
anniversary of “turning [Iranian Quds force commander] Qasem Soleimani into a
kebab.”
If you’re some notorious enemy of the United States,
you’re probably just gonna want to stay in bed in early January.
Finally, it appears that the Cuartel de la Montaña
complex, housing the remains of former President Hugo Chávez in Caracas will
be closed for repairs until further notice. Chavez, who died from cancer in
2013, was buried at the mausoleum at the now Revolution Museum at the Mountain
Barracks. Last night, his remains were cremated.
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