By Catherine Perez-Shakdam
Friday, December 19, 2025
When I first wrote about the Islamic Republic of Iran’s
external planning, I focused on something that many preferred to treat as an
outlier: the patient, methodical “mapping” of Israeli and Jewish presence
across Western states as part of a wider operational architecture. I did not
mean “mapping” as metaphor, but as the unglamorous mechanics of target
development - reconnaissance, selection, prioritisation, and the building of
deniable pathways by which intimidation can become violence. In the years since,
open-source analysis and official material have converged on precisely this
direction of travel: Iranian operational leaders, particularly within the IRGC
and MOIS, increasingly leverage criminal networks as proxies to create distance
between Tehran and operations on European soil, a shift that is documented in
detail by the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism. UK government action against the Sweden-based
Foxtrot network, sanctioned for involvement in violence against Jewish and
Israeli targets in Europe on Iran’s behalf, illustrates the same method in
policy form: deniability by design, pressure by proxy.
But what I believe we still understate - and what 7
October and its aftermath made brutally visible - is that the operational layer
is only half the strategy. The other half is cognitive. The chants, the
manipulation, the inversion of values, the resurrection of libels in fresh
packaging, and the speed with which Israel was cast as a metaphysical evil were
not simply “reactions” to events. They were the activation of a frame that had
been prepared long in advance, and not prepared accidentally. My argument is
straightforward: the hatred did not need to be invented after 7 October; it
merely needed to be licensed. The permission structure already existed,
cultivated through years of psychological and social conditioning -
conditioning that made antizionism feel not merely permissible but righteous,
and antisemitism, once laundered through the word “Zionist,” feel like civic
virtue.
I do not claim that every person shouting a slogan is an
agent, nor that outrage cannot be sincere. I claim something more unsettling
and, I think, more accurate: that hostile actors have spent years shaping the
interpretive environment in which outrage is processed, framed, and weaponised.
European institutions now formally conceptualise this domain as Foreign
Information Manipulation and Interference - FIMI - precisely because deception,
polarisation, and the erosion of trust have become organised instruments of
statecraft, not mere propaganda in the old sense. When a society’s information
environment is degraded, moral language becomes a battlefield and institutional
procedure becomes a lever. The most effective campaigns are those that do not
look like campaigns at all, because they flow through the incentives and
reflexes of the host society.
This is why I insist that what we witnessed after 7
October was not simply a public mood swing. It was a trigger pulled into a
prepared chamber. The Community Security Trust’s reporting is instructive here,
because it notes the immediacy and scale of the surge in anti-Jewish hate
following 7 October, including the rise occurring before any extensive Israeli
military response in Gaza could plausibly be offered as a causal explanation.
That does not mean events in Gaza are irrelevant to public discourse; it means
the animating energy of post–7 October antisemitism was not contingent on a
later battlefield narrative. It was already latent, already normalised, already
waiting for an opening.
I also believe we misread the relationship between the
Islamic Republic of Iran and Muslim Brotherhood - derived networks when we
treat it as a simplistic alliance of identical ideologies. The more dangerous
truth is that theological differences do not prevent operational convergence.
Iran is a Shia Islamist state; the Brotherhood is Sunni. Yet, where strategic
utility exists, the relationship behaves like a pragmatic partnership whose
centre of gravity is anti-Israel and anti-Western leverage. Hamas - born of the
Muslim Brotherhood’s Palestinian branch - is the obvious junction point. The
European Council on Foreign Relations describes Iran’s ties to Hamas and
Palestinian Islamic Jihad as a “marriage of convenience”: not puppetry, but
evolving sponsorship grounded in shared enemies and mutual need. The Washington
Institute’s analysis likewise argues that Tehran has played a long-term role in
Hamas’s military development and has navigated deep ideological rifts in order
to sustain effective sponsorship.
What emerges from this is an ecosystem rather than a
command chain. Tehran’s comparative advantage is state capacity: external
operations culture, deniable proxies, money, weapons expertise, cyber reach,
and the intelligence mindset that thinks in terms of leverage and pressure
across borders. Brotherhood-derived activism, at its most potent, offers
something different: social infrastructure and moral language that can travel
through civic life - mosques, charities, student politics, campaigning organisations,
and the broader milieu of “movement” mobilisation. These do not need to
coordinate in a conspiratorial sense to reinforce one another. They simply need
to pull in the same direction. Iran can sharpen the spear; Brotherhood-linked
networks, and the broader Islamist influence ecology that sits around them, can
prepare the ground into which the spear is thrown.
Western states have not been blind to these dynamics, but
they have often been conceptually timid, which amounts to the same thing. The
UK’s own review of the Muslim Brotherhood - whatever debates one wishes to have
about its framing - made a core point that remains relevant: parts of the
Brotherhood have an ambiguous relationship with violent extremism, and
association with or influence by the Brotherhood should be considered a
possible indicator of extremism. Meanwhile, Lorenzo Vidino’s “Verbatim” report for
GWU’s Program on Extremism collates what a range of European security services
have said about Brotherhood-related networks in Europe - an attempt, at
minimum, to map concern as expressed by state agencies rather than leaving the
field to polemic. France, too, has
wrestled publicly with this question: a Reuters account of a
government-commissioned report presents the claim that Brotherhood-linked
actors pursue gradual, non-violent influence through schools, mosques, and
local NGOs, while also noting criticism from Muslim leaders and academics who
argue the framing risks stigmatization and lacks proof of intent to establish
an Islamic state. I cite this not to sanctify the report, but to illustrate the
dilemma that hostile ecosystems exploit: democracies hesitate, argue with
themselves, and grow afraid of naming networks, while those networks remain
unafraid of naming their targets.
Now, to the heart of my analysis, and to the point I have
tried - painfully - to convey: attacks on Jews in the diaspora are not merely
about killing Jews. They are about manufacturing a diplomatic crisis between
Israel and the West by turning Jewish life abroad into a pressure point, and by
turning the West’s commitment to equal citizenship into an exhausted
performance.
This is why the Iranian threat cannot be treated as
episodic. The UK Parliament’s December 2025 research briefing describes Iranian
threats as wide-ranging - physical, espionage, offensive cyber, and political
interference - and explicitly frames Tehran’s objectives in terms that include
weakening UK relations with the United States and Israel. That is not
rhetorical flourish; it is the strategic logic written plainly in an official
format. When the state itself tells you that the threat actor thinks in integrated
terms, it is a mistake to analyse physical intimidation as “security” and
narrative manipulation as “culture.” They are fused.
Here is how I understand the intended mechanism. As
intimidation and violence against Jews and Israelis in Western states increase
- whether through direct plots, deniable proxies, or the more common everyday
harassment that makes communal life feel like walking through a minefield -
governments face a stress test: can they protect Jewish citizens without
hedging, moral bargaining, or quiet suggestions that Jewish visibility is the
problem? In a healthy democracy, the answer is simple. In a democracy whose institutions
have been conditioned to interpret Jewish fear as political manipulation, the
answer becomes complicated, and in that complication lies the opening. Jews
grow frightened not only of attackers but of abandonment. Israel grows angry
not only from solidarity but from state logic: the Jewish state cannot regard
diaspora vulnerability as someone else’s domestic inconvenience, because Jewish
history is the story of what happens when protection becomes discretionary.
At that point, the secondary effect begins: “Western
fatigue.” It often starts as sympathy. It curdles into impatience, particularly
if Jewish communities insist - annoyingly, stubbornly - on naming what is
happening to them. It then converts into resentment: why is this minority
always “bringing trouble”? Why must we keep hearing about it? The coward’s
alchemy turns fear into blame, and blame into a demand that Jews make
themselves smaller. In the final inversion, Jewish resilience becomes the
provocation. The accusation is not only that Jews are targeted, but that Jews,
by existing and persisting, are the reason society is made tense. This is how
an external threat actor extracts strategic value from domestic social
dynamics: it does not need to convince everyone; it needs to make protection
politically expensive.
The reason I call this “sick” is that it is not
improvisation. It is the reactivation of an ancient European pathology, made
newly scalable by modern institutions and modern media. And it is here that
antizionism performs its most corrosive function. Antizionism, in its
ideological form, does not merely criticise Israeli policy; it recodes Jewish
peoplehood and Jewish self-determination as uniquely illegitimate. Once that
recoding is normalised, Jews in the diaspora are placed in an impossible
position: they are demonised where they live and told that their national home
is a criminal anomaly. They are left, psychologically and politically, with
nowhere to run. The subtext is barely hidden: you are tolerated only if you are
powerless and apologetic; you are safe only if you are invisible.
When I say that “the ‘Jewish question’ is a tool,” I am
not resurrecting the language as a legitimate frame; I am naming what
extremists are doing with it. They have learned that the fastest way to strip
the West of its soul is to persuade it - slowly, plausibly, and with moral
vocabulary - that one minority can be treated as an exception to the rules. The
West’s claim to moral seriousness rests on universals: equal citizenship,
minority protection, due process, evidentiary standards, and a refusal to dehumanise.
If those universals can be suspended for Jews, they can be suspended for
anyone. The attack on Jewish legitimacy becomes a rehearsal for the broader
demolition of liberal democracy’s ethical spine. This is why Jews so often
appear, historically, as the canary in the civilisational mine: not because
Jews are the centre of Western life, but because a civilisation’s treatment of
Jews reveals whether it believes its own principles.
I also think we underestimate how institutional capture
works because we keep looking for uniforms and directives. Capture in the West
is usually bureaucratic and reputational. It happens when language is redefined
- when “harm” means “disagreement,” when “safety” means “silence,” when
“context” means “excuse,” and when “genocide” becomes not a legal claim
requiring rigour but a moral annihilation label used to end conversation. It
happens when journalists, academics, and civic leaders learn - often unconsciously
- that there is professional safety in repeating fashionable frames and
professional risk in questioning them. It happens when institutions treat
intimidation as “activism,” and when they treat the targeted minority’s fear as
a public relations inconvenience.
If I wanted a single image for this, it would not be the
loudest march; it would be the meeting room where a university or a charity or
an editorial board decides, quietly, to avoid “controversy” by excluding Jewish
concerns or by laundering antisemitism as politics. This is the point at which
the West stops merely being attacked and begins participating in its own
undoing.
Finally, I want to underline that hostile actors are also
thinking beyond the Middle East in operational terms. The West Point CTC’s
October 2025 analysis of Hamas plots in Europe argues that Hamas has long
plotted externally even if it has not executed a successful attack outside
Israel, the West Bank, or Gaza, and it discusses weapons caches and law
enforcement attention in European countries. Whether one accepts every
inference in that analysis or not, it aligns with the wider point: diaspora
space is increasingly treated as an arena for leverage.
So my conclusion is not despair; it is a demand for
strategic clarity. The Islamic Republic of Iran and Brotherhood-derived
ecosystems do not need perfect unity to produce synergy. They need only a
shared utility in the delegitimisation of Israel, the intimidation of Jews, and
the corrosion of Western moral confidence. We fail when we treat this as a
series of disconnected controversies rather than an integrated campaign that
uses violence, deniability, institutional pressure, and information manipulation
as one system. And we fail, most dangerously, when we allow fear of being
misunderstood to become an excuse for refusing to understand.
If the West is to resist being stripped of its soul, it
must relearn the discipline of universals. It must protect Jewish citizens not
as a favour or as a “community issue,” but as a test of whether citizenship
still means what it claims to mean. It must treat antizionism’s ideological
core - where it functions as a vehicle for antisemitism - not as a fashionable
moral pose, but as a corrosive force that degrades democracy from within. And
it must stop granting hostile actors the victory they seek: the transformation
of liberal societies into places where truth is negotiable, principles are
conditional, and minorities are protected only when it is convenient.
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