By Andrew C. McCarthy
Monday, October 12, 2026
President Trump’s atrocious oil deal with Vladimir Putin,
his friend and America’s foe, is impeachable flim-flam.
It’s a fraud on the American people — a desperate, futile
attempt to address Trump’s self-inflicted wound of high diesel prices. We
produce around 5 million barrels of diesel per day yet consume less than 4
mb/d. The excess makes us the world’s top diesel exporter, helping ease the
energy crunch in Latin America and Europe. Russia, in stark contrast, has
collapsed as an exporter. Putting aside the more appalling aspects of this deal
— a gift to Putin, requiring no concessions on his part — we are apparently
supposed to believe that Russia, whose energy sector is in such disrepair it was importing diesel from South Korea this summer, is
going to be our savior exporter.
Putin is a war criminal. In his war of aggression against
Ukraine, he has repeatedly scoffed at the peace pleas of Trump’s hapless
emissaries — principally, Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and business partner
Steve Witkoff. This weekend, Putin blithely persisted in his barbaric attacks
on civilians, even as Trump (a) announced the diesel deal, (b) claimed there is a Russia/Ukraine “energy ceasefire” agreement
that no one has seen (and that, if it exists, Ukraine says Russia is massively violating), and (c) called
for Ukraine to replace its president on pain of losing access to American intelligence (all this atop the administration’s
periodic calls for Ukraine to surrender and threats
to cut off munitions support). The Kremlin’s strategy for achieving the
conquest that has eluded Moscow on the front lines is to freeze civilians
during Ukraine’s harsh winter; hence, the continued bombings of the electric
grid, fuel production facilities, and even a gas station . . . complementing
Putin’s habitual attacks on residential buildings and public buses.
Ukraine has countered with a very effective drone campaign against the oil production
facilities that feed Moscow’s war machine. Moreover, sanctions have squeezed Russia’s oil industry — and would
continue to do so if the president, by his gift of a diesel deal to Putin, were
not signaling to the world that the Trump administration is not serious about sanctions —
even as Trump just made a show of signing the Lindsey Graham bill to
strengthen sanctions.
The reason diesel prices are high at the pump is not a
lack of U.S. supply. Plus, even if Russia, in its depleted state, had the
wherewithal to export significant quantities of diesel, the amounts Trump
heralded in announcing his deal with Putin are trifling. As Forbes’s Erik Sherman explains, the first
shipment Trump spoke of, 300,000 tons, computes to a total of about 2.2
million barrels of diesel. By itself (i.e., setting aside other U.S. diesel
consumption), the American transportation sector uses about 3 million barrels
of diesel daily. That is, the first shipment wouldn’t get us through a
single day.
Now, given the damaged state of its production facilities
and its fuel-intensive warmongering, it is unlikely that Russia will any time
soon be poised to ship 4.8 million tons of diesel, the total of all shipments
contemplated in the Trump/Putin deal (from now through early April 2027). But
even if it could, Sherman notes that this would compute to a total of 35.5
million barrels — less than what the U.S. uses in just ten days. And mind you,
Trump said the Russian shipments were intended to ease the strain on “the
Global Marketplace,” not just the American market. Ergo, the deal (in the
unlikely event Russia could produce the amount Trump has floated) would not
reduce prices — not before the midterms and probably not ever.
While the Trump/Putin deal portends no economic benefits
for the United States (and is profoundly counterproductive overall — more on
that momentarily), it is an absolute coup for Putin. It will provide billions
of dollars in revenue for the anti-American dictator’s coffers. Even worse, as
Trump well knows, Putin uses the military and intelligence assets acquired from
revenue to commit war crimes in Ukraine and abet Iranian attacks on the United
States. And another bonus for the Kremlin: In one fell swoop, Trump is both
dismantling the American sanction weapon that has wounded Putin and conveying
to other nations that they should be doing business with Moscow, not
sanctioning and isolating it.
Since there’s nothing but downside for the U.S. in this
deal, why is the president doing it? Two reasons, I suspect.
First, it might suggest to voters that Trump is taking
real steps to reduce the prices his unilaterally imposed policies have caused.
Any resulting misimpression on this score will prove fleeting because the
prices will not decrease. Indeed, the probability is higher prices
because the war Trump started against Iran without seeking congressional
authorization or public buy-in is heating up again. Putin’s ally Iran has stepped up attacks in the Strait of Hormuz; that
increases shipment costs exorbitantly even when crude oil gets through.
Moreover, Iran’s allies, the Houthis, are now in a full-fledged war with Saudi Arabia,
terrorizing Red Sea shipments (formerly the Saudis’ alternative to transit in
Hormuz) and pummeling Saudi production and transportation infrastructure. In
sum, the war Trump started without thinking through the consequences is the
cause of high energy prices; the war Putin started in Europe is irrelevant on
that score — notwithstanding Trump’s malevolent efforts to blame Ukraine for
both Putin’s aggression and high diesel prices.
As a number of commentators have pointed out, if Trump
were really concerned about the price burden on Americans (and the midterm
prospects of Republicans), he could simply end his imbecilic trade war with Canada, our ally and
neighbor. Because of the complexities of the global diesel market, as well as
such inane American policies as the Jones Act and the discouragement of new refining
capacity, we do import some diesel despite being a net exporter. The vast
majority of those imports come from Canada — from which we could easily import
more if necessary without violating sanctions laws and lending comfort to our
Russian enemy. But Trump being Trump, he’d rather appease Putin than admit that
his trade policies antagonize our allies while crushing Americans.
The second reason for doing the diesel deal with Putin
is, as ever, corruption. In early October, the New York Times reported that Trump is working on
an even more execrable multibillion-dollar oil deal with Putin: The U.S. would
waive sanctions so that an investor group could buy up oil fields, refineries,
and gas stations around the world that are owned by Lukoil, the Russian energy
giant. The deal has been negotiated by Trump’s aforementioned emissaries,
Kushner and Witkoff. Among the major beneficiaries are said to be one of
Trump’s major donors (Todd Boehly, who has donated $2 million to Trump
political causes) and Middle Eastern executives who have business ties to
Trump, Kushner, and Witkoff. These include Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed al Nahyan,
the top security official of the United Arab Emirates — who, as I detailed in a series earlier this year, is a part
owner of the Trump and Witkoff families’ crypto enterprise, into which Tahnoon
has poured $2.5 billion. (That enterprise is the main explanation for the
jaw-dropping increase in Trump’s net worth during his second term in “public
service” — well over $2 billion in just 20 months.)
Obviously, Trump has an abiding interest in eroding the
U.S. sanctions regime against Putin. The wheeling and dealing he and his
business associates are trying to pull off would be far more lucrative if
Russian assets Putin is poised to peddle are out from under sanctions. The
Trump/Putin diesel deal erodes the sanctions.
It is also illegal . . . probably.
By overwhelming margins in 2022 — 100–0
in the Senate, 413–9 in the House — Congress enacted the Ending Importation
of Russian Oil Act. The legislation bans U.S. imports of Russian diesel unless
the president certifies that Russia has reached an agreement to withdraw its
forces from Ukraine, that Ukraine has accepted such an agreement, and that
Russia no longer poses a threat to either NATO countries or Ukraine’s
self-determination. Even for Trump, such a certification would be impossible
(including the NATO component, with Putin increasing his provocations on that score, too).
Alas, as usual, Congress was allergic to taking an
accountable position: The 2022 act includes weasel language that says the ban on
diesel imports is to work in conjunction with existing executive procedures for
implementing sanctions. (This is to allow lawmakers to claim both that they
punished Russia and that they have not tied the president’s hands in dealing with
Russia.) Despite the ban, then, the administration will undoubtedly argue that
the enabling license the Trump Treasury Department has issued to waive
restrictions on Russian diesel is consistent with those existing executive
procedures. Plainly, the license is not consistent with an import ban, but
Trump officials will counter that they are just temporarily waiving sanctions
not nullifying them — a statutory ban cannot be repealed by a license,
regulation, or executive order.
There are other statutory provisions that apply,
including one Trump grudgingly signed into law in his first term — the 2017
Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, which requires prior
notification to Congress before major changes in Russia policy. And the
above-described 2022 ban on diesel imports mandates that the president consult
with Congress 45 days prior to submitting any certification that waives the
ban. As is his wont, Trump acted unilaterally and did not consult Congress, much
less submit a certification. Still, the legislative waters are muddy; despite
the insistence of some lawmakers from both parties that Trump has violated the
law, that will not be easy to establish.
What is straightforward, though, statute or no statute,
is that the president of the United States is empowering and emboldening a
murderous anti-American regime even as it persists in a war of aggression,
savage war crimes, provocations of America’s allies that verge on acts of war,
and the provision of intelligence and assets to Iran that the latter uses in
its warfare against the United States. Regardless of whether statutes have been
transgressed, President Trump is grossly abusing the executive power entrusted
in him.
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