The Pit and the Political Pendulum

By Judson Berger

Friday, October 30, 2026

 

If Democrats are handed anything like a mandate next week, expect them to over-read it.

 

Yuval Levin, at the dawn of Trump Two, explained the pit our politics has tumbled into the last couple presidential cycles, during which each party has gotten a do-over — only to then indulge in the excesses responsible for their time out of power.

 

It’s not 2028 yet, but Tuesday’s midterms will set the mood. Especially if the pendulum swings back and Democrats succeed in reclaiming both chambers of Congress, it’s looking like the party’s left flank is itching to steer it toward some grand, constitutional-order version of the Green New Deal.

 

Now, no matter the Democrats’ numbers in the House and Senate, some sensible congressional oversight is in order — indeed, has been earned — given the Trump administration’s (and family’s) self-dealing, its targeting of political enemies, and now questions about favors to Russia. In an ideal world, those investigations would be bipartisan. Apart from the consequent headaches for this administration — plus a probably inevitable third impeachment drive — it is also possible that not much changes for now in day-to-day Washington.

 

As Jim Geraghty explained in one of two cover stories for National Review’s latest issue, President Trump already prefers doing business via executive order. If Congress flips, “a Democratic House and Senate will be louder and angrier than has been the case over the past two years, but Trump will remain Trump, accepting limits on his power only when he truly has no choice.” Or, as Charles C. W. Cooke put it in the other cover story:

 

If the Democratic Party wins a majority in both houses of Congress in November 2026, I will be nervous, but it won’t keep me up at night. If the Democratic Party wins a majority in both houses of Congress in November 2028, I shall become a raging insomniac.

 

That moment represents the true pivot point for American politics. NR’s editorial elaborates on the stakes not only for 2026 but especially for the next presidential election:

 

Unified control of Washington is the ultimate goal. Should Democrats get it in two years, they will attempt to eliminate the filibuster and unlock the path in the Senate for radical, self-serving changes to the system. Even establishment Democrats are talking of adding Puerto Rico and Washington, D.C., as states, and it has become nearly party orthodoxy that the Supreme Court should be “reformed,” either with age limits to jettison conservative justices or by expanding the number of justices.

 

This is an agenda to overturn the constitutional order for partisan and ideological advantage. The legitimacy of the Senate, with four more arbitrarily added Democratic seats, and the Supreme Court would never be the same. Many Democrats also want to trash the Electoral College, and who knows what else they’d come up with should they take over Washington.

 

An optimistic reading would be that, should Democrats win on Tuesday, they will focus their energy on oversight and shelve the grand designs of their most radical factions, long-term. But political tides do not seem to be turning that way. Abigail Anthony and Rich Lowry have written about how “woke” politics are reemerging after a brief period of latency. How strident the party becomes in that sense may depend in large part on who composes the progressive vanguard in Congress come 2027: known, if protean, quantities such as a possibly self-moderating AOC, who has an eye on higher office — or the likes of Abdul El-Sayed, Darializa Avila Chevalier, and Melat Kiros.

 

The concern of overreach goes beyond the culture wars. Returning to Charlie’s piece, he, like Yuval, observes the fever of delusion that has stricken both parties: the loudest voices within them “believe that a majority of the country is secretly in love with them” and that they are only thwarted by the “ruthlessness of the other side.” He adds, “Stir in the Democrats’ nauseating tendency to conflate their own interests with the integrity of ‘our democracy,’ and one can easily see how even the self-described moderates within that party could be persuaded to go along with a series of brazen acts of constitutional vandalism.”

 

Voters could yet restrain these passions. Charles Hilu writes about the importance of Maine’s Senate race, the scene of so much political drama this year. Deroy Murdock explains the difference that low-propensity center-right voters could make on Election Night. Dan McLaughlin breaks down what to watch for next week.

 

But if the Democrats are gloating come Wednesday, it’s time to start thinking seriously about what that portends for the fundamental structure of the Senate, the Supreme Court, and more.