Why So Grim About Iran?

By Luther Ray Abel

Friday, April 10, 2026

 

Jeff and John have written matched pieces detailing why the Iran war is a “debacle,” or if not that, then at least a net negative. Their support for this thesis — the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a fifth of the world’s oil supply, the regime’s continued defiance despite losing its leaders, and Trump’s recent pursuit of negotiations and a cease-fire — is legitimate. However, I’m unconvinced for a few reasons.

 

First and foremost, let’s take a moment to acknowledge just how successful the first month of combat has been. The first weeks were such a triumph that many can be forgiven for their ignorance.

 

As Noah Rothman has noted:

 

Within the first two weeks of the war, U.S. and Israeli forces unleashed a blistering wave of strikes on Iranian air defenses, radar systems, missile launch and storage facilities, drone capabilities, naval mines, air bases, and the pillars of regime stability. The Iranian air force is gone. Most of Iran’s air and missile bases have been rendered inoperable. Its naval installations along the Persian Gulf coast were incapacitated, and about 120 Iranian ships were disabled or sunk. And what remains of Iran’s once formidable network of terrorist proxies across the Middle East was decimated, their leadership ranks decapitated, and their local support networks disrupted or entirely cut off.

 

As the U.S.-Israeli war against the Islamic Republic entered its fourth week, their joint force embarked on what their military brass called “phase two” of the war: taking out Iran’s military infrastructure. The U.S. and Israel hit Iran’s nuclear facilities, including those that were struck in June 2025, as well as new targets, including undeclared nuclear sites. U.S.-Israeli strikes also began targeting Iran’s defense industrial base. Its missile-production facilities, drone manufacturers, explosives-production plants, and sensitive electronics developers came under sustained bombardment.

 

Second, a lull in the fighting is to our advantage, militarily and diplomatically. We have devastated everything the IRGC had above ground, so let the Iranians think we’re as soft as most Western governments. Send JD Vance to an unproductive summit in Pakistan. Sweeten our tone and talk of peace while Iran carries on with its jihadist blather. “We want to end hostilities, but they won’t listen.”

 

Soon, the doors in mountainside facilities will start opening, the IRGC forces will begin poking out their heads, and all the while, our eyes in the sky will be watching. Simultaneously, our supply ships will be transferring JP-5 and munitions to the depleted fuel tanks and magazines of the USS Abraham Lincoln and its strike group. The flight deck and its airdales will sleep more than two hours at a stretch, do postponed maintenance, and possibly even shower.

 

Ground campaigns may be won by relentless advance and cold steel; bombing campaigns require intelligence-gathering, consumables to reach and return from the target, and a host of support. All three improve with a short reprieve.

 

Perhaps most important, the lull provides our enemy time for his adrenaline to drain. He must now take stock of his losses, his competing directives, and his exhaustion. It’s easy to fight when one’s blood is up and any second can be one’s last . . . it’s much harder when a man has time to wonder if he’s the last unit, or what’s happening at home, or if his new leader has sold him out. Iran hasn’t had the space to reckon with its power vacuum yet. Meanwhile, more U.S. ships gather off the coast.

 

The last thought is: Breathe . . . let the U.S. military do its thing. We’re still fresh into this conflict. Round One just concluded. We’d have taken this result if given the option before the bout began. Our fears are hypothetical, while our successes are stone cold. Abide.