Vance in a Vise

By Abe Greenwald

Friday, April 10, 2026

 

It takes about 14 hours for Air Force Two to get from Joint Base Andrews to Islamabad. That’s a lot of time for Vice President JD Vance to think about the tough situation—correction, situations—in which he now finds himself. 

 

Let’s take the Iran talks first. Vance is off to Islamabad to lead negotiations with the Iranian regime. As he was departing, the speaker of the Iranian Parliament announced that there would be no negotiations without “the release of Iran’s blocked assets,” adding another impossible demand to the regime’s already science-fictional list. 

 

It’s almost unthinkable that Iran will stick to this or any precondition for talks. The regime’s main purpose in negotiating with the U.S. is to drag out the so-called cease-fire, not cut it short. But Tehran’s increasing bluster is an indication of how pointless these talks are as actual diplomacy. 

 

For one thing, the battered regime is trying to project strength by showing belligerence and intransigence toward the U.S. For another, the Islamic Republic—no matter how decimated—doesn’t negotiate in good faith with the U.S. 

 

From its inception in 1979, the regime has defined America as its sworn enemy. Its fanatical anti-Westernism, anti-Americanism, and anti-Semitism are constituent elements of the revolution that Khomeini foisted on the country.

 

So when Vance arrives, and talks likely proceed, what’s going to happen? Iranian negotiators will state their impossible demands but, perhaps, indicate that there’s an opening for progress if only the U.S. were to offer some concession to get things rolling.

 

At that point, Vance will come face-to-face with his first lose-lose proposition. If he does the wrong thing, and gives in, he will have let the regime play the U.S. for suckers. And we will once more head down the fruitless road of extended Iranian negotiations. 

 

If Vance does the right thing, and walks away, I’ll certainly approve. But he will be deemed a failure or a fall guy on his first big diplomatic adventure. Donald Trump has already (not-so) jokingly said that he’ll blame failed negotiations on his vice president. Watch that space. 

 

This isn’t the only thing Vance needs to worry about right now. Yesterday, Trump unleashed on the leading anti-American “right-wing” podcasters who’ve attacked the president as Bibi Netanyahu’s chump and even insinuated that he could be the anti-Christ. Chief among them is Tucker Carlson, a close Vance associate whose son works in his office. 

 

The vice president has desperately courted Carlson’s anti-American, anti-Semitic audience in a bid to pull them into a Vance 2028 coalition. The Trump administration’s support for Israel has already convinced most of these groypers that Vance is a sellout. Trump’s unbridled war on the podcasters means there’s no road back. Vance must now spend the next two and a half years serving by Trump’s side and steering clear of his old buddies. 

 

He has deliberately let it be known that his was the loudest administration voice in opposition to the war with Iran. If the war resumes, and we finish the job, he will be remembered as the man who was wrong from the start. And if the Iranians play us at the negotiating table, he will be forever tied to that blunder.

 

So there he is, up in the air—on his way to Islamabad. Vance, whose popularity is polling lower than that of any previous vice president at this point in office, will have a lot of time to ponder over the weekend. The return flight is estimated to be an hour longer.