The Blockade Is Scrambling Calculations in Tehran and Beijing

By Noah Rothman

Monday, April 20, 2026

 

The news over the weekend featured a blizzard of vaporous claims about the status of a potential deal to extend the cease-fire between the U.S. and Iran before it expires on Tuesday night. But each reported breakthrough turned out to be ephemeral. In contrast to the non-events that characterized the chatter around a second round of talks in Islamabad, however, the situation on the ground inside Iran and in the Strait of Hormuz has proven more dynamic.

 

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps appears to be attempting to seize control of the regime from the Iranian political figures who presume to speak for it. “Bad and incomplete tweet by [Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas] Araghchi and incorrect ambiguity-creation regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz,” the IRGC-linked Iranian outlet Tasnim reported on Friday, scolding the foreign minister for entertaining proposals to reopen the Strait.

 

“Clearly, the IRGC is trying to take back control of the talks in Pakistan,” one Jerusalem Post analysis of the emerging schism concluded. “It is willing to make the regime look divided to achieve its goals.”

 

Hours later, in one of the 27 interdictions the U.S. Navy has conducted since it embarked on a maritime blockade of Iranian ports, U.S. Marines conducted a hostile boarding of an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel that evaded American ships. That vessel “is likely to have what Washington deems dual-use items that could be used by the military onboard,” Reuters reported Monday.

 

In response to the seizure of its vessel, the disunited Iranian regime insisted that the Strait, which it had never fully reopened to commercial traffic, was once again closed. What remains of the Iranian Navy attempted to retaliate by reportedly targeting American and U.S.-aligned ships with drones – again, according to the IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency.

 

The Iranian regime’s inconstancy contrasts with the apparent U.S. commitment to its blockade strategy – an undertaking that the Pentagon reportedly plans to expand well beyond the Gulf of Oman.

 

“The U.S. military is preparing in coming days to board Iran-linked oil tankers and seize commercial ships in international waters, according to U.S. officials,” the Wall Street Journal reported Saturday.

 

Why not? After all, as the Brookings Institution scholar Robin Brooks conceded, the blockade has so far succeeded in throttling Iran’s vital exports, starving the regime of its primary economic lifeline to the world:

 

 

In addition to the blockade, in what it’s calling Operation Economic Fury, the Treasury Department is augmenting the financial pressure the blockade has placed on the Iranian regime by expanding the list of sanctioned Iran-linked vessels and targeting the foreign firms that benefit from the illicit sale of Iranian energy exports – including Chinese banks.

 

The Chinese played a leading role behind the scenes in compelling the Iranian regime to submit to talks in Islamabad in the first place. It is possible that the U.S. blockade is sapping Beijing of its resolve to stand with the Islamic Republic indefinitely:

 

In his first public remarks on the status of the Strait, Chinese President Xi Jinping told his Saudi counterpart, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, that Hormuz should “remain open for normal passage.” In his remarks, Xi did not single out either the U.S. or Iran as the primary obstacle to commercial traffic.

 

Cynics can call the U.S. decision to blockade Iranian ports in the middle of a ceasefire improvisatory. But one man’s improvisation is another’s adaptiveness. Whatever else one might say about the blockade, it has stopped Iran from dictating the tempo and terms of events in global energy markets — the last point of Iranian leverage over the West.

 

Maybe that helps create the conditions for a satisfactory cessation of hostilities. Perhaps it sets the stage for the fighting to resume when the cease-fire sunsets on Tuesday night. What is certain is that the U.S. is once again in control of the rhythm of events in the Strait of Hormuz.