By Abe Greenwald
Thursday, April 09, 2026
Despite the bold U.S. military campaigns Donald Trump has
authorized in his second presidency, I think it’s still fair to say that he has
a strong aversion to war. He thought it necessary to send seven B-2 bombers to
blow up three Iranian nuclear sites in June. The American military had prepared
such a strike for years, and the IDF had ensured that U.S. planes would meet no
Iranian air defenses. The whole thing took less than 48 hours.
Trump was okay with a quick and clean operation to
extract Nicolás Maduro from Venezuela in January. That was even shorter, and
the U.S. military had spent months putting all its assets in place.
Additionally, the use of an undisclosed new weapons technology meant that
Venezuelans wouldn’t know what hit them. Apparently, they didn’t.
When Trump decided to go ahead with Operation Epic Fury
on February 28, he had predetermined that it would be a time-limited war
conducted without ground troops. And, once again, the preparation and
coordination involved were impeccable.
In other words, Trump will use force in a narrowly
defined context if he determines that the conditions for success are optimal.
This, in itself, is a good thing.
What Trump really likes, however, is peace. Don’t
laugh—it’s true.
I’m not talking about peace in the hippie, “can’t we all
get along” sense. He doesn’t believe that fighting parties just need to get in
touch with their inner love for all living things. Rather, Trump thinks that
everyone is as transactional as he is, and there’s always a practical way to
induce enemies to lay down their arms.
He also enjoys thinking of himself as the greatest
peacemaker the world has ever seen. Trump is what you might call a peacemonger,
looking to declare and preside over peace agreements at every opportunity.
Trump’s peace fetish, ironically, is one of his greatest
foreign-policy shortcomings. Because when he can’t claim genuine progress
toward peace, he’ll settle for fake progress instead. And when Trump announces
pretend progress, it just means there’s a war that he’s not sufficiently
dealing with.
He’s done this for over a year with Russia’s war on
Ukraine, announcing diplomatic progress week after week, while the fighting
rages on. He’s done it to some extent regarding Hamas, which remains armed
despite Trump’s self-touted peace agreement requiring them to put away their
guns. And Trump frequently pretends that lesser matters, such as his fight with
Europe over Greenland, have been perfectly resolved to America’s benefit.
It’s starting to look as if the “cease-fire” with Iran is
the mother of all Trump’s pretend bids for peace. Not only has Iran continued
to fire on Israel and its regional Arab neighbors and inhibit shipping in the
Strait of Hormuz since the cease-fire was announced Tuesday night—but virtually
every one of its demands is a nonstarter for the U.S., and our terms are just
as anathematic to the Iranian regime. What’s more, the regime has been so
degraded by the war that Iranian leadership is bent on flaunting its obstinacy
to the U.S. as a sign of strength.
There is no peace, no plan, and no legitimate starting
point for either one.
Trump can afford to pretend he’s getting somewhere with
Russia and Hamas because they’re not in a direct fight with the U.S. Iran is,
which means make-believe progress isn’t going to cut it. The word for
pretending to be at peace with a regime that’s at war with you is “surrender.”
Neither Trump nor the United States can afford that.
Loath as the president is to wage war a moment longer
than planned, I don’t see much of a choice this time.
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