Sunday, November 17, 2024

America Should Be Ready for Lame-Duck Chaos Abroad

By Mike Coté

Sunday, November 17, 2024

 

America is currently obsessed with the potential staffing and policies of the incoming second Trump administration, as well as litigating the causes behind his historic election victory. Most of the media, both traditional and social, is fully focused on these domestic concerns. These are, of course, important questions for the future of American politics. But the rest of the world isn’t nearly as interested in those debates. And geopolitics doesn’t stop during the lame duck to allow us to myopically concentrate on these purely internal affairs.

 

Normally, the period between the November presidential election and the January inauguration is fairly quiet for America on the international stage. The outgoing president often tries to avoid making major foreign policy alterations during the transition period. Of course, there are always exceptions. Notably, the outgoing Obama administration sought to cement its strategy of realignment in the Middle East by bolstering the JCPOA nuclear deal and undermining Israel at the United Nations. We have already seen the beginnings of such an approach under Biden, with the White House quietly waiving sanctions on the Palestinian Authority, considering imposing sanctions on Israeli military units and politicians, and surging military aid to Ukraine. For the most part, foreign actors follow the same anodyne playbook as they are trying to tease out the new president’s potential policies and personnel choices. Many keep their heads down after congratulating the president-elect, seeking to get on his good side for the next four years.

 

This lame-duck period, however, is an aberration. Not only is the party in power changing, but the man who will be taking over as president has already served in the office. This situation has only occurred once in American history, and the geopolitics of 1892 are not even remotely similar to those of 2024. Other nations have an idea of what a Trump administration will be like, something that does not usually occur with a change in power. That makes it far easier for our allies and enemies to plan and act geopolitically, particularly during the lame duck. On top of that, the sitting president is widely believed to be, at best, mentally diminished and, at worst, totally senile. Outside of Washington, the world is in a state of chaos that it hasn’t seen in decades. There are hot wars engulfing two major regions and heavily implicating American interests; there are still American hostages in Gaza, and our enemies are confident and aggressive. This is, put together, a recipe for a not-so-lame duck.

 

The allied group most likely to foresee negative outcomes from a Trump administration are the Western European nations, which have traditionally relied on a robust American security umbrella. These EU/NATO members abhorred Trump during his first term and found his entreaties to live up to their stated defense commitments insulting and inappropriate. In a second Trump term, they will likely be marginalized in favor of more robust defense partners in Eastern Europe, namely Poland. Because of that predicted future, we have already seen France’s Emmanuel Macron argue for a more independent European defense posture and foreign policy. Other countries have joined this call, pledging more defense spending and less reliance on American security guarantees. This is excellent news, as it will allow these once-great nations to reclaim their independent power, assert themselves as a security presence in their own backyard, and relieve the United States of a massive burden, allowing us to prioritize more pressing theaters.

 

Ukraine is more of a mixed bag, as Trumpian policy on its defensive war is still entirely up in the air. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky and his advisers seek more aid and a reduction in the constraints that the Biden administration has arbitrarily imposed upon them; it is possible Trump will accede to these requests, but it is just as likely that Kyiv will be cut off entirely. Therefore, it benefits Ukraine to be as aggressive as possible during the lame duck so as to impress Trump and increase the likelihood of continued support. Also leading to this rise in assertiveness is the fact that the Biden administration can no longer effectively constrain Ukrainian action; it previously relied on threats of withholding aid, but with the administration exiting in just a few months, Kyiv is largely unbound. This means more daring attacks, sabotage, and incursions across the border into Russia proper. We have already seen some of this escalation, but more will surely come as the lame duck progresses.

 

Israel is the ally most encouraged by the election results, as the Netanyahu government sees a far more sympathetic figure entering the Oval Office. During the first Trump administration, the Israel–U.S. relationship was the strongest it has been in the 21st century. The Abraham Accords opened a diplomatic path for Israel with its Arab neighbors, Jerusalem was recognized as the inalienable capital of Israel, and the Palestinian cause was sidelined in favor of total support for our ally. Now that Israel is engaged in a seven-front conflict with Iran and its antisemitic proxies, the unwavering backing of a Trump White House is more important than ever. The Biden team repeatedly hamstrung Israel, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken prioritizing negotiation instead of victory. Now that the opposite approach will be coming to Foggy Bottom, Jerusalem will be able to take the fight to its adversaries with our stamp of approval. Netanyahu has already started acting as though Trump is in office, consolidating his security cabinet by firing his defense minister, pushing farther into Lebanon, and working to roll up the remnants of Hamas in Gaza. Depending on how the coming months shake out, direct assaults on the Iranian nuclear program, oil infrastructure, and the regime itself would not be out of the question.

 

Our adversaries will be just as active in the lame duck, seeking to take advantage of the final months of the lackluster Biden administration to present Trump with a much more challenging geopolitical picture. The massive reduction in America’s deterrent capability over the past four years has incentivized these malign actors to push aggressively against our interests and strike while the iron is still hot.

 

Russia will seek to do exactly what Ukraine will do: make its position as good as possible before the new administration takes office. Moscow knows that Trump seeks an end to the war and desires to be in the best position to take advantage of that; they will dig in, reinforce their troops — including with North Korean auxiliaries — and continue their assault on Ukrainian infrastructure. Russia may use these reinforcements to push for more significant gains in Ukraine, hoping to retain all of what they conquered in the eventual armistice. Putin knows that, as long as he keeps rattling that nuclear saber, the weak-kneed Biden administration will attempt to limit Ukrainian action so as to avoid “escalation.” That reality may not continue past January, so Moscow will take advantage while it lasts.

 

For Iran, the situation is much bleaker. The first Trump administration was extremely tough on Tehran, imposing massive sanctions, aligning closely with Israel, and killing IRGC commander and arch-terrorist Qasem Soleimani. Over the past four years of Democratic control, Tehran has been appeased, defended, and negotiated with, culminating in its current attempt to destroy the Jewish state. That all ends on January 20. In the months before then, Iran will undoubtedly seek to retaliate against Israel for its destruction of Tehran’s air defenses and decapitation of Hezbollah, hoping that the Biden team will restrain Israel from responding in kind. The mullahs will do everything they can to cement their authoritarian rule at home, rake in as much cash from oil sales as possible, transfer funds and weapons to their regional proxies, and strengthen ties with other authoritarian regimes. In the worst-case scenario, Tehran may attempt a nuclear breakout, working to produce a bomb before the inauguration and thus making Trump’s position far more difficult. The Biden administration’s coddling of Iran dramatically reduced the time needed to build a functional nuke, so this is not outside the realm of possibility.

 

Finally, our greatest adversary, China, will use this period to forward its aim of economic and strategic domination of Asia. Beijing had an on-again, off-again relationship with Trump during his first term, but it was generally treated as a threat. During the past four years of the Biden presidency, China was downgraded to a mere competitor. Both presidents focused on economic issues, which allowed China to push far more aggressively in the geopolitical arena. The early Trump Cabinet picks on the national security front show a far more holistic – and realistic – conception of China as a hostile power that must be confronted. Beijing will try to take advantage of the current interregnum to bolster its position against any potential response from Washington. This means enhancing diplomatic ties with regional players, embedding itself within international bodies, further aiding its allies in Pyongyang, Moscow, Tehran, and Latin America, and pushing for tighter control over the South China Sea. Chinese belligerence in this critical region has already ramped up in the lame duck, and it would not be out of the question to see similar moves near Taiwan and the Senkaku islands. Those acts of aggression against American friends would occur amidst a power vacuum in DC, making them that much harder to roll back come January.

 

The actions that these powers take — or refuse to take — during these next two months will set the stage for the coming four years of foreign affairs. The world is in a state of flux and is replete with chaos and conflict. The decisions made now, when America is focused on internal matters, will redound throughout the next decade, if not longer. Much of the current geopolitical strife will play out over the next presidential term, with the actions taken in the lead-up to the inauguration setting the terms for that tumultuous period. The incoming Trump administration should do everything possible to deter our adversaries and show our allies that America will forcefully defend our interests when endangered. The world is mere months away from a second Trump presidency, but the interim may very well present the president-elect with an entirely different geostrategic picture than existed on November 5. We should be prepared.

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