By Mike Coté
Sunday, November 17, 2024
America is currently obsessed with the potential
staffing and policies of the incoming second Trump administration, as well as
litigating the causes behind his historic election victory. Most of the media,
both traditional and social, is fully focused on these domestic concerns. These
are, of course, important questions for the future of American politics. But
the rest of the world isn’t nearly as interested in those debates. And
geopolitics doesn’t stop during the lame duck to allow us to myopically concentrate
on these purely internal affairs.
Normally, the period between the November presidential
election and the January inauguration is fairly quiet for America on the
international stage. The outgoing president often tries to avoid making major
foreign policy alterations during the transition period. Of course, there are
always exceptions. Notably, the outgoing Obama administration sought to cement
its strategy of realignment in the Middle East by bolstering the JCPOA nuclear
deal and undermining Israel at the United Nations. We have already seen the
beginnings of such an approach under Biden, with the White House quietly waiving sanctions on the Palestinian Authority, considering
imposing sanctions on Israeli military units and politicians, and surging military aid to Ukraine. For the most part, foreign
actors follow the same anodyne playbook as they are trying to tease out the new
president’s potential policies and personnel choices. Many keep their heads
down after congratulating the president-elect, seeking to get on his good side
for the next four years.
This lame-duck period, however, is an aberration. Not
only is the party in power changing, but the man who will be taking over as
president has already served in the office. This situation has only occurred
once in American history, and the geopolitics of 1892 are not even remotely
similar to those of 2024. Other nations have an idea of what a Trump
administration will be like, something that does not usually occur with a
change in power. That makes it far easier for our allies and enemies to plan
and act geopolitically, particularly during the lame duck. On top of that, the
sitting president is widely believed to be, at best, mentally diminished and,
at worst, totally senile. Outside of Washington, the world is in a state of
chaos that it hasn’t seen in decades. There are hot wars engulfing two major
regions and heavily implicating American interests; there are still American
hostages in Gaza, and our enemies are confident and aggressive. This is, put
together, a recipe for a not-so-lame duck.
The allied group most likely to foresee negative outcomes
from a Trump administration are the Western European nations, which have
traditionally relied on a robust American security umbrella. These EU/NATO
members abhorred Trump during his first term and found his entreaties to live
up to their stated defense commitments insulting and inappropriate. In a second
Trump term, they will likely be marginalized in favor of more robust defense
partners in Eastern Europe, namely Poland. Because of that predicted future, we
have already seen France’s Emmanuel
Macron argue for a more independent European defense posture and foreign
policy. Other countries have
joined this call, pledging more defense spending and less reliance on
American security guarantees. This is excellent news, as it will allow these
once-great nations to reclaim their independent power, assert themselves as a
security presence in their own backyard, and relieve the United States of a
massive burden, allowing us to prioritize more pressing theaters.
Ukraine is more of a mixed bag, as Trumpian policy on its
defensive war is still entirely up in the air. Ukrainian president Volodymyr
Zelensky and his advisers seek more aid and a reduction in the constraints that
the Biden administration has arbitrarily imposed upon them; it is possible
Trump will accede to these requests, but it is just as likely that Kyiv will be
cut off entirely. Therefore, it benefits Ukraine to be as aggressive as
possible during the lame duck so as to impress Trump and increase the likelihood
of continued support. Also leading to this rise in assertiveness is the fact
that the Biden administration can no longer effectively constrain Ukrainian
action; it previously relied on threats of withholding aid, but with the
administration exiting in just a few months, Kyiv is largely unbound. This
means more daring attacks, sabotage, and incursions across the border into
Russia proper. We have already
seen some of this escalation, but more will surely come as the lame duck
progresses.
Israel is the ally most encouraged by the election
results, as the Netanyahu government sees a far more sympathetic figure
entering the Oval Office. During the first Trump administration, the
Israel–U.S. relationship was the strongest it has been in the 21st century. The
Abraham Accords opened a diplomatic path for Israel with its Arab neighbors,
Jerusalem was recognized as the inalienable capital of Israel, and the
Palestinian cause was sidelined in favor of total support for our ally. Now
that Israel is engaged in a seven-front conflict with Iran and its antisemitic
proxies, the unwavering backing of a Trump White House is more important than
ever. The Biden team repeatedly hamstrung Israel, with Secretary of State
Antony Blinken prioritizing negotiation instead of victory. Now that the
opposite approach will be coming to Foggy Bottom, Jerusalem will be able to
take the fight to its adversaries with our stamp of approval. Netanyahu has
already started acting as though Trump is in office, consolidating his security
cabinet by firing his defense minister, pushing farther into Lebanon, and
working to roll up the remnants of Hamas in Gaza. Depending on how the coming
months shake out, direct assaults on the Iranian nuclear program, oil
infrastructure, and the regime itself would not be out of the question.
Our adversaries will be just as active in the lame duck,
seeking to take advantage of the final months of the lackluster Biden
administration to present Trump with a much more challenging geopolitical
picture. The massive reduction in America’s deterrent capability over the past
four years has incentivized these malign actors to push aggressively against
our interests and strike while the iron is still hot.
Russia will seek to do exactly what Ukraine will do: make
its position as good as possible before the new administration takes office.
Moscow knows that Trump seeks an end to the war and desires to be in the best
position to take advantage of that; they will dig in, reinforce their troops —
including with North Korean auxiliaries — and continue their assault on
Ukrainian infrastructure. Russia may use these reinforcements to push for more
significant gains in Ukraine, hoping to retain all of what they conquered in
the eventual armistice. Putin knows that, as long as he keeps rattling that
nuclear saber, the weak-kneed Biden administration will attempt to limit
Ukrainian action so as to avoid “escalation.” That reality may not continue
past January, so Moscow will take advantage while it lasts.
For Iran, the situation is much bleaker. The first Trump
administration was extremely tough on Tehran, imposing massive sanctions,
aligning closely with Israel, and killing IRGC commander and arch-terrorist
Qasem Soleimani. Over the past four years of Democratic control, Tehran has
been appeased, defended, and negotiated with, culminating in its current
attempt to destroy the Jewish state. That all ends on January 20. In the months
before then, Iran will undoubtedly seek to retaliate against Israel for its destruction
of Tehran’s air defenses and decapitation of Hezbollah, hoping that the Biden
team will restrain Israel from responding in kind. The mullahs will do
everything they can to cement their authoritarian rule at home, rake in as much
cash from oil sales as possible, transfer funds and weapons to their regional
proxies, and strengthen ties with other authoritarian regimes. In the
worst-case scenario, Tehran may attempt a nuclear breakout, working to produce
a bomb before the inauguration and thus making Trump’s position far more
difficult. The Biden administration’s coddling of Iran dramatically reduced the time needed to build a functional
nuke, so this is not outside the realm of possibility.
Finally, our greatest adversary, China, will use this
period to forward its aim of economic and strategic domination of Asia. Beijing
had an on-again, off-again relationship with Trump during his first term, but
it was generally treated as a threat. During the past four years of the Biden
presidency, China was downgraded to a mere competitor. Both presidents focused
on economic issues, which allowed China to push far more aggressively in the
geopolitical arena. The early Trump Cabinet picks on the national security
front show a far more holistic – and realistic – conception of China as a
hostile power that must be confronted. Beijing will try to take advantage of
the current interregnum to bolster its position against any potential response
from Washington. This means enhancing
diplomatic ties with regional players, embedding itself within
international bodies, further aiding its allies in Pyongyang, Moscow, Tehran,
and Latin America, and pushing for tighter control over the South China Sea.
Chinese belligerence in this critical region has already ramped up in the lame duck, and it would not be
out of the question to see similar moves near Taiwan and the Senkaku islands.
Those acts of aggression against American friends would occur amidst a power
vacuum in DC, making them that much harder to roll back come January.
The actions that these powers take — or refuse to take —
during these next two months will set the stage for the coming four years of
foreign affairs. The world is in a state of flux and is replete with chaos and
conflict. The decisions made now, when America is focused on internal matters,
will redound throughout the next decade, if not longer. Much of the current
geopolitical strife will play out over the next presidential term, with the
actions taken in the lead-up to the inauguration setting the terms for that
tumultuous period. The incoming Trump administration should do everything
possible to deter our adversaries and show our allies that America will
forcefully defend our interests when endangered. The world is mere months away
from a second Trump presidency, but the interim may very well present the
president-elect with an entirely different geostrategic picture than existed on
November 5. We should be prepared.
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