The Iranian Regime’s Weakness Is an Opportunity for the Trump Administration

By Daniel Twining

Saturday, November 30, 2024

 

It is no exaggeration to say that Iran is an unrivaled agent of chaos, death, and destruction in the Middle East today. From the multi-front war on Israel to the plots to assassinate President-elect Trump, the Iranian dictatorship is fundamentally incompatible with global peace and security.

 

But the regime is not the same as the Iranian public. In fact, new polling from Iran supported by the International Republican Institute offers striking new evidence of just how far apart the Iranian people are from their rulers.

 

Nearly 80 percent of Iranians blame Iran’s foreign policy for the country’s economic problems, and 63 percent do not think it advances the well-being of ordinary citizens. Additionally, a plurality, 43 percent, believe that Iran’s foreign policy is contributing to tensions in the region.

 

What about the war on Israel? In fact, as many Iranians (42 percent) disapprove of Hamas’s assault on Israel as support it (43 percent). Iranians are also split on support for the so-called “Axis of resistance,” composed of its proxy forces spread across the region: Public support for providing them with financial assistance sits at 49 percent.

 

Despite five decades of violent anti-American brainwashing, two-thirds of Iranians (67 percent) support normalizing ties with the United States. What’s more, the percentage of Iranians who strongly support normalization with Washington (55 percent) outstrips support for the “Axis of resistance” (49 percent).

 

Perhaps confirming Republican criticism that the defunct nuclear deal was too generous to Tehran, 61 percent of poll respondents believe Iran should make an agreement with Western countries to resolve the issue. As the ayatollahs accelerate Iran’s illicit weapons program with an eye toward a nuclear breakout, it’s not at all clear their exhausted public would support it, with most Iranians instead favoring accommodation with Washington.

 

Iranian youth are the greatest potential agents of change given their dissatisfaction with the status quo. Among 18- to 29-year-olds, 76 percent do not believe that officials care about the issues that matter to them, 77 percent do not see prosperity in their future, and 74 percent would prefer to emigrate from Iran.

 

The data are clear: Iran’s rulers are badly out of step with their citizens. The Iranian people do not want conflict with America or to live in a state of warfare with their neighbors. They overwhelmingly believe Iranian foreign policy has damaged their economic prospects, and a majority do not approve of the war on Israel. Young people in particular are sharply critical of a government that does not answer to them or offer any prospects for a better future. Indeed, the tremendous popular support for the pro-democracy “Women, Life, Freedom” protests of the past two years testifies to the deep desire for change and disgust with the Iranian regime.

 

With a second Trump administration preparing to reprise its “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, these trends offer an obvious opportunity to further isolate this noxious regime from its citizens. If the regime finally falls under the weight of popular pressure, a successful democratic transition would have the potential to fundamentally transform Iran, the region, and the world for the better — and could provide the greatest boon to American interests since the collapse of communism.

 

The regime’s increasingly audacious attempts to bring violence to our own shores underscores the urgency of an aggressive approach. From the multiple assassination attempts on American soil of dissident Masih Alinejad to Tehran’s efforts to murder President-elect Trump, the Iranian regime has clearly felt emboldened in its shadow war on the United States.

 

After four years of disinterest from the outgoing administration, the Trump team ought to support freedom fighters as part of its Iran strategy. This should include harsher targeted sanctions on the officials responsible for oppressing the Iranian people, exposing the regime’s rampant corruption, disrupting Iran’s lucrative black-market oil trade and supply of weaponry to Russia’s war machine through sanctions and interdiction, equipping pro-democracy activists with the tools they need to build broad coalitions, and using offensive cyber tools to tear down the dictatorship’s internet firewall and thus enabling Iranians to access information about the true nature of the regime.

 

The scale of the threat posed by Iran demands the deployment of every tool at our disposal. Like all dictatorial regimes, Tehran fundamentally fears its own people. As the incoming administration prepares its new “maximum pressure” campaign, they would do well to consider the untapped power of the Iranian people.