By Dan Crenshaw
Friday, November
22, 2024
This week, Ukrainian forces used American-made ATACM
missiles to strike Russian military targets inside Russia for the first time,
marking a remarkable policy shift by the Biden administration.
Cue the hyperventilating from the usual suspects about
“the warmongers dragging us into World War III!”
But is that really true? Or did Biden finally give the
incoming administration exactly what Trump needed: leverage?
First of all, the breathless cries about the imminency of
WWIII have been wrong, every single day, since February 2022, when Russia
invaded. Despite the consistent but ultimately hollow saber-rattling from
Russian leader Vladimir Putin, the fact remains that neither Putin nor the U.S.
desires an all-out nuclear conflict. These recent actions don’t change that
fact.
Second of all, American weapons have been killing
Russians since February 24, 2022. Javelins, Stingers, TOWs, 155s, and HIMARS —
not to mention thousands of rounds of ammunition — have eliminated more than
100,000 Russian soldiers on the battlefield. Still no World War III.
Third, Ukraine has been attacking targets on Russian soil
since almost the beginning of the war. Its soldiers have used mortars,
artillery, and vehicles — all of which we supply. Still no World War III.
Russia hasn’t even retaliated against smaller countries
like Turkey, which produced Bayraktar drones that were pivotal in Ukraine’s
ability to halt Russia’s initial invasion. In May, both Great Britain and
Germany gave Ukraine permission to use their weapons to strike inside Russian
territory, despite Putin’s public threats. Still no retaliation. But we’re
supposed to believe that Russia would retaliate as a result of stepped-up U.S.
aid — while ignoring that provided by Turkey, Britain, or Germany? The doomsday
narrative doesn’t add up. It never has.
Unlike most of the people complaining about U.S. support
for Ukraine in the comments section, I have actually been to war and have the
scars to prove it. I’ve learned many lessons. But one stands out: You won’t get
peace without leverage, and you can’t create leverage without exerting
strength. That’s what “peace through strength” actually means.
If you’re really for “peace,” then you want what Trump
wants: Putin at the negotiation table. This would signal that America’s
deterrence has been re-established, which is in our strategic national
interest. But you will need the necessary leverage to get Putin there.
Otherwise, you’re not calling for peace; you’re calling for Russian victory,
Ukrainian surrender and subjugation, and a Russian army on the border of four
more NATO countries with the realization that America won’t defend its allies.
You want WWIII? That’s how you get WWIII. Just ask Neville Chamberlain.
Putin started this war, not us. And right now he has no
incentive to stop it, largely because of Biden’s tepid “just enough, just in
time” support for Ukraine that has facilitated the endless stalemate we see
now. To break that stalemate and de-escalate the fight, you must first escalate
to gain leverage. Putin responds only to power, nothing else, and thus far our
show of power has been minimal.
That has finally changed, and the biggest beneficiary
will be President-elect Donald Trump. Instead of inheriting a costly and
politically charged stalemate, he will inherit the leverage he needs to start
out his presidency with a strong hand to play against Putin.
By January 20, 2025, the Kremlin will have finally felt
some of the pain it has wrought on Ukraine, sanctions will have been ramped up
on Russia’s oil and gas sector, and that regime’s ability to supply troops and
continue this costly war will have diminished. The Russians will finally be
thinking about off-ramps.
And then a new American president with a history of
dealmaking steps onto the scene with an offer to start negotiating a peace
deal. As a Trump supporter, I can’t imagine a better fortune for our 47th
president.
President Trump will have the upper hand. If the Russians
continue to balk at peace talks, Trump can allow Biden’s policies to continue.
If the Ukrainians aren’t willing to accept a reasonable solution, Trump can
threaten to shift course on aid.
In the near term, only Russia loses. American weapons on
Russian soil will not start World War III, but they will blunt Russia’s
attempts to take the upper hand before Trump takes office. Trump supporters
should be celebrating this good news and thinking two or three steps ahead
about what it really means: a potential end to a costly war, and a massive win
for Trump’s long-term legacy.
No comments:
Post a Comment