By Clay Routledge
Monday, December 11, 2017
Despite the pleas of a number of conservative thought
leaders, tomorrow many Alabama Republicans will probably cast a vote for a
conspiracy theorist and accused child molester. A year ago, the American people
voted into the office of the presidency a man with no experience as a
politician but plenty as a womanizer, Twitter troll, and narcissistic
celebrity. And before you respond “but Hillary,” remember that Trump won the
Republican nomination against a diverse buffet of actual conservatives. Many
rightly worry about the long-term consequences of conservatives’ supporting
leaders such as Trump and Moore in the service of short-term political
victories. But the future of American conservatism is uncertain for reasons
beyond the Republican party’s current existential crisis.
I’ve frequently heard the argument that changing racial
and ethnic demographics are the biggest threat to conservatism in America. I find
this position unconvincing. There is no inherent connection between these
demographic variables and ideology. In fact, minority groups are often more
conservative than white European Americans.
The biggest threats to conservatism are psychological, not
demographic, trends. As an actual philosophy of life and not just a
low-resolution tribal marker, conservatism thrives when people are mentally
resilient, self-reliant, and strongly invested in the interpersonal bonds that
make small government viable: family, friends, and community. At the national
level, all of these psychological characteristics are in decline, and with
them, so is principled conservatism.
Psychologist Jean Twenge documented many of these
declines in her new book iGen. Using
large national data sets, Twenge reveals that American teens and young adults
today, compared with those of past generations, are more emotionally vulnerable
and anxious. A number of surveys of college students paint a similar picture of
young Americans becoming increasingly distressed.
The self-esteem and emotional-safety cultural movements
that have shaped the views of psychologists, educators, parents, and
politicians in the Western world are likely at least partially to blame. But
regardless of the causes, increased psychological fragility means that today’s
young adults are less emotionally prepared to independently navigate the
stressors and uncertainties of adult life.
Further demonstrating a decline in personal independence,
Twenge shows that, compared with past generations, today’s teens are less
likely to have driver’s licenses, to work for money, and to spend time
unsupervised. They are increasingly dependent on their parents — and
subsequently, in many cases, on university administrators. On today’s college
campuses, students desire more regulations and oversight, a departure from past
generations that demanded fewer rules and more freedoms. Surveys of American
adults reveal a disturbing level of anti-freedom views across age groups and
political affiliations, but young adults appear particularly afraid of freedom
and ill-prepared for it.
Scholars have proposed that some of these trends reflect
the emergence of a slower life development. In other words, young people today
may simply be taking a bit longer to reach full adulthood. Even if this is the
case, there are political and policy implications. For one, the voting age
hasn’t changed. If greater self-reliance makes conservatism more appealing and
viable, it may be increasingly difficult to attract young voters to
conservative candidates and ideas. Moreover, parents vote, and their views may
be influenced by a culture of longer child dependence.
Americans are also less and less invested in, and perhaps
less successful at, building the interpersonal and community bonds that nourish
the conservative way of life. In iGen,
Twenge notes that young Americans today are less likely to date and socialize
without parental involvement and are also experiencing greater levels of
loneliness.
Ironically, in the age of social media, young people feel
more alone. Recently published studies show that the mere presence of a
smartphone decreases enjoyment of face-to-face social interactions. A number of
social scientists have observed that isolation and loneliness are growing
problems across age groups. Loneliness is now widely considered a major
public-health threat, as it is associated with a wide range of mental and
physical illnesses.
The changing social lives of Americans are also reflected
in marriage statistics. According to the Pew Research Center, in 1960 72
percent of Americans 18 and older were married. By 2015 that number dropped to
50 percent. In 1960 men and women tended to marry in their early 20s. In 2016
the median age for first marriage reached a record high, 29.5 for men and 27.4
for women. Not surprisingly, then, Americans are also waiting longer to start
families and having fewer kids.
Americans, and younger adults in particular, are also
abandoning social religion. I use the term “social religion” because there are
reasons to believe that the religious minds of people of all ages remain active,
searching for some form of transcendent meaning. Most still believe in God or a
universal spirit, describe themselves as spiritual, are captivated by the
supernatural, and long to be part of something larger and more enduring than
the mortal self. However, more than ever they are disinclined to identify with
a traditional faith, belong to a church, or attend religious services. Young
adults are consuming more New Age spirituality and paranormal-related media and
products, but these are often solitary or superficially social behaviors that
do not promote deep or lasting relationships and community bonds.
Though it may be tempting, it would be a mistake for
liberals to see these trends as politically favoring them or helping the
nation. A decline of principled conservatism doesn’t mean we will see a rise of
liberalism or the diminishing of tribal politics. This brings us back to the
ascension of Trump and the potential election of Roy Moore. The issue is more
qualitative than quantitative. Low-quality conservative candidates won’t stop
Republicans from tactically signaling their conservatism and finding ways to
win elections. Regardless of the state of the party, people will probably
continue to vote for their Republican tribe for a number of reasons. But will
they personally live up to and favor political candidates who live up to
conservative values? Winning elections is not the same as using conservative
principles to address pressing social and economic challenges.
In many ways, Trumpism reflects the right-wing version of
emotional safety and victimhood culture many conservatives criticize. Trump’s
self-aggrandizing and fragile ego are emblematic of the self-esteem movement.
Considering his age, he was ahead of the curve. Trump also employs safe-space
tactics that have become all too common on many college campuses. Instead of
promoting freedom, he champions censorship of speech he finds offensive and
verbally attacks those who disagree him. Trump isn’t the future of
conservatism. He is a prophetic warning of its retreat.
Conservatives have always been vital to the success of
America. And there remain many doing their part to sustain themselves, support
their families, and contribute to the prosperity of their communities and
country. But the psychological profile that inspires the best of conservatism
is in danger. Instead of submitting to fear, anger, and party loyalty for
short-term political victories, conservatives should start thinking about
future generations. Young Americans are watching.
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