By David
Harsanyi
Friday, December
22, 2017
According
to political analysts, Democrats in 2018 will use the just-passed tax reform as
a way to argue that the Republican party is the party of the plutocracy, which
is another way of saying that Democrats are going to use the same argument
they’ve been using for the past three decades with varying degrees of success.
A number of liberals have claimed that the passage of “unpopular” tax reform is
historically analogous to the passage of Obamacare, which triggered the loss of
hundreds of Democratic seats and, perhaps, Democratic control of the
presidency.
This is
wishful thinking, for a number of reasons.
Yes, the
tax bill is unpopular. Then again, I’m not sure you’ve noticed that everything
Washington, D.C., tries to do is unpopular. Nothing polls well. Not the
president. Not Congress. Not Democrats. Not legislation. Not even erstwhile
popular-vote-winning candidates. Certainly, a bill being bombarded with
hysterical end-of-the-world claims that are rarely debunked by the political
media is not going to be popular. Republicans won’t pass anything if they wait
around for things to be popular.
However
— apologies to House minority leader Nancy Pelosi — they can be somewhat
content knowing that voters will probably like it once they find out what’s in
it.
Why do
so many Americans believe that the middle class is getting a tax hike? Because
outlets they trust are constantly lying to them. Both in framing and content,
the coverage of the tax cuts has been impressively dishonest. “One-Third of
Middle Class Families Could End Up Paying More under the GOP Tax Plan,” writes Time’s Money (they won’t). An Associated
Press headline reads, “House Passes First Rewrite of Nation’s Tax Laws in Three
Decades, Providing Steep Tax Cuts for Businesses, the Wealthy.” And so on.
There
will always be ideological arguments regarding the efficacy of tax cuts for
corporations and the wealthy, but at some point people are going to find out
that they’ve gotten one, too. The nonpartisan
liberals at the Tax Policy Center concede that 80 percent of Americans will see
a tax cut in 2018, and that the average cut will be $2,140 — which might be
something to scoff at in D.C., but I imagine a bunch of voters surprised by
these savings will be less cynical. Only 4.8 percent of Americans will see a
tax increase.
As with
Obamacare, people don’t know what’s in the bill. But, unlike Obamacare, the
repeal of the individual insurance mandate gives millions a choice. The passage
of Obamacare, after all, upended lives. The Affordable Care Act became synonymous
with “health-care insurance,” and voters attributed everything that went wrong
with that insurance to the bill. And since Democrats offered a litany of
fantastical promises about the future of health care, the disapproval was
well-deserved. Millions began seeing their insurance plans discontinued as soon
as Obamacare was implemented, despite assurances from the president and pliant
Democrats that no such thing would happen. For many, premiums in the individual
markets doubled over four years of Obamacare. Voters dealt with these tangible,
real-life consequences.
Whatever
valid concerns there are about debt or spending (and they are valid), it is
unlikely that tax cuts will have long-term consequences on voting similar to
those health care has had. It is more likely that tax cuts will do little to
change the dynamics of the coming years. But it is plausible that, because of
the overreaction from the left, millions of Americans who thought they were
going pay more in taxes will find a new child credit and be thankful.
As an
ideological matter, every time a Democrat claims that keeping more of your own
money is tantamount to “stealing” — which happens often — voters should
remember that this is fundamentally a debate between people who believe the state
should have first dibs on your property, and people who don’t. The only way to
frame the bill as a tax hike is by using the 2025 expiration of individual rate
cuts. And the only way they won’t be extended is if Democrats decide to raise
taxes again. These are debates Republicans should embrace.
That’s
not to say tax reform is a panacea for Republicans. It’s far from it.
Historically speaking, the party in power will likely lose a bunch of seats in
the 2018 midterms. But the claim, which Democrats are sure to make, that those
losses are unique or tied to the toxicity of an agenda item — particularly a
tax cut, which is generally popular among Americans (when they know it exists)
— is far-fetched.
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