Latin America Is Shifting Right and Toward the U.S.

By John Fund

Monday, February 02, 2026

 

Sunday’s landslide victory of Laura Fernández, the 39-year-old conservative candidate for president of Costa Rica, is welcome news. But it’s part of a clear trend sweeping Latin America: Conservative parties are winning elections and then pursuing closer ties with the U.S.

 

The pattern has been consistent and clear. It began in late 2023 with the election of libertarian Javier Milei — an ally of Donald Trump’s — in Argentina. Since then, Milei’s free-market approach has paid huge dividends. Inflation has declined from 300 percent a year to just 30 percent, the budget deficit is now zero, and the poverty rate has plunged from 52 percent to 31 percent.

 

As both Argentina and the U.S. turned toward conservatism in the past year, country after country in Latin America has followed suit, moving to the right.

 

Ecuador: Daniel Noboa, the incumbent conservative president, won reelection in April of last year, defeating leftist Luisa González with 56 percent of the vote. Two years earlier, he had beaten González with only 52 percent.

 

Bolivia: In August, with the victory of conservative Rodrigo Paz, the Andean nation repudiated the socialist MAS party that had dominated its politics for 20 years. MAS’s economic incompetence and corruption led to it losing all but two of its seats in Congress.

 

Argentina: Midterm elections in October ratified the public’s confidence in Javier Milei’s policies. His coalition won majorities in both houses of Argentina’s congress and will now have the votes to pursue even more-vigorous reforms.

 

Honduras: Conservative Nasry Asfura won November’s election in part because of an explicit endorsement from President Trump.

 

Chile: December’s election saw free-market candidate José Antonio Kast win in a landslide, with 58 percent. He will oversee a huge policy shift from the left-wing administration of Gabriel Boric.

 

Even Britain’s left-wing newspaper The Guardian acknowledges the trend, conceding that Laura Fernández’s victory “confirms a rightward lurch in Latin America, where conservatives have ridden anger towards corruption and crime to win power.”

 

Security issues have soared to the top of voters’ priority list all over the region, as migration and the stepped-up activity of drug gangs has heightened fears about crime.

 

In El Salvador, populist President Nayib Bukele has built maximum-security prisons where gang members are treated harshly. This has led to calls in other countries to emulate his security policies, though none have militarized their country to the same extent as El Salvador or ignored the term limits as Bukele has.

 

In Costa Rica’s elections, security was a huge issue. But so, too, was the economy. Fernández, a former minister of economic policy, built on her record in office, which saw growth of 4 percent to 5 percent a year, an unemployment rate of just 7 percent, low inflation, debt reduction, and investments in education. She promised to continue to “fight tirelessly” to promote economic growth, saying it was a necessity to diversify the country’s tourist-driven economy and lift people out of poverty. Bloomberg News reports that she campaigned on an ambitious agenda:
“Fernández has called for closer economic ties with the US, says she opposes all new taxes and wants to ‘cut the fat’ off the state.” She also supported selling two state-owned banks and placing term limits on judges, who, she said, were too often lenient with criminals.

 

Of course, there is no assurance that the winning streak of conservative parties in Latin America will continue. Three major countries will vote later this year: Peru in April, Colombia in May, and Brazil in October. The most recent polls show that a conservative candidate is likely to be competitive or an even bet to win in each country. In Brazil, the biggest country in Latin America, with 213 million people, leftist President Lula da Silva is promising to run even though he will turn 81 just two days after any runoff election. The latest poll shows him with 45 percent, trailing the combined total of the four conservative challengers, who are likely to force him into a runoff.

 

If the conservative trend continues, it will vindicate the belief of President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio that Latin America has spent too long in the backwaters of U.S. foreign policy.

 

Recent elections are a clear gauge of success for America’s reengaged Latin policy. But even more impressive results may come if nations that haven’t had free elections in decades — Cuba and Venezuela come to mind — start changing the course of their foreign policy under the influence of either gentle or sharp elbow jabs from the United States.