By Daniel Yudkin & Stephen Hawkins
Saturday, January 24, 2026
The first year of Donald Trump’s second term has made two
things clear. First, the MAGA coalition is not breaking up any time soon. Even
after the especially chaotic events of the past few weeks, Trump supporters are
sticking
by their man. Second, faith in Trump’s leadership is not driven by his
adherence to a coherent political ideology. Trump, who, as part of his “America
First” policy, once declared that he would be “getting out of the
nation-building business,” has now declared that the U.S. “will run the
country” of Venezuela for the foreseeable future. An administration that
promised to look out for the “working man” has handed billions of tax dollars
back to America’s wealthiest households while stripping
health care from the most vulnerable.
If ideological consistency can’t explain the enduring
loyalty of Trump’s base, what does? A new
study by More in Common, the nonprofit research organization where we work,
finds that Trump’s coalition is not monolithic. It consists of four groups,
each with a distinct profile and perspective. Trump’s political power depends
on his ability to connect with these groups on different emotional and
psychological grounds.
Over the course of 10 months, we surveyed more than
10,000 people who said they voted for Trump in 2024, and conducted extensive
focus groups, conversations, and in-depth interviews. We then identified groups
of Trump voters with similar attitudes and beliefs.
About 29 percent of 2024 Trump voters are what we call
the “MAGA Hardliners.” These are the fiery core of Trump’s base, mostly
composed of white Gen Xers and Baby Boomers, who are animated by the belief
that God is on their side in America’s existential struggle between good and
evil. Then there are the “Anti-Woke Conservatives” (21 percent): a more
secular and affluent group of voters deeply frustrated by what they perceive as
the takeover of schools, culture, and institutions by the progressive left.
Another 30 percent are the “Mainline Republicans”: a more racially diverse group
of middle-of-the-road conservatives who prioritize border security, a strong
economy, and cultural stability. Finally, we have the “Reluctant Right” (20
percent). Members of this group, unlike the other three, are not necessarily
part of Trump’s base; they voted for him, but have ambivalent feelings toward
him. Only half identify as Republicans, and many picked Trump because he seemed
“less bad” than the alternative.
Our research suggests that Trump’s ability to play
different roles for his coalition yields an emotional payoff that exceeds the
value of philosophical or logical consistency.
The first role that Trump plays, which resonates for all
four groups, is that of a “builder.” Trump’s social-media rants and diatribes
against “corrupt” institutions create a common misperception that his appeal
centers on tearing things down. In fact, his voters see him primarily as a
constructive force. When asked to choose from a set of roles that they
associate with Trump, 58 percent of survey participants selected “a builder
trying to fix a broken system”—the highest share of any option offered. For the
Reluctant Right, this sense of construction is paired with an image of
managerial competence: They are more likely than any of the other groups to
describe Trump as a “businessman” or a “CEO running a company.” The perception
of Trump’s positive, constructive role helps explain why “hope” is the emotion
that Trump supporters most commonly associate with his presidency.
Trump’s second role is that of “redeemer”: someone who
can restore his supporters’ status and respect in a society that they feel has
long looked down on them. Most Trump voters in our study believe that America’s
cultural institutions have been dominated by those who scorn their values and
way of life. Seventy-six percent agree with the statement “The woke left has
ruined American education, news, and entertainment.” Accompanying this
diagnosis is a sense of disrespect from political elites and Democrats. Only a
quarter of Trump voters feel respected by Americans who voted for Democrats,
whereas 84 percent believe that “President Trump respects people like me.” (The
important exception to this is the Reluctant Right, who feel respected by
neither Trump nor Democrats.)
The third role is that of an energizing “blasphemer”—a
violator of progressive norms. This identity resonates most strongly with MAGA
Hardliners and Anti-Woke Conservatives, who believe that the political left has
become a sanctimonious elite imposing its worldview on everyone else. About 90
percent of MAGA Hardliners and Anti-Woke Conservatives agree that the “left
actually hates America.” This generates a desire not just for redemption but
also for retribution. Trump presents himself as a norm-breaker who delights in
poking his finger in his critics’ eyes: More than three-quarters of MAGA
Hardliners and more than half of Anti-Woke Conservatives believe that
“President Trump should make the left pay for its mistakes and lies.” This
sense of transgression fuels a gleeful energy that runs through much of Trump’s
public communication. As Gina, a 50-year-old white woman who lives in Florida,
told us, Trump is “a gigantic orange flashing middle finger, and I love it.”
The final role—one that appeals especially to MAGA
Hardliners—is what we call the “grand narrator.” Trump’s appeal can be
understood only in the context of a decades-long collapse of trust in American
institutions including Congress, the press, academia, and the scientific
establishment. MAGA Hardliners—and, to a lesser extent, Anti-Woke
Conservatives—overwhelmingly view the media as dishonest and believe that the
“deep state” is setting the course for the whole nation. Even with unified
Republican control of the White House, Supreme Court, and Congress, a majority
of both groups still distrusts the federal government. In this uncertain
epistemic landscape, Trump has emerged not just as a decisive leader but as a
central purveyor of truth: 93 percent of MAGA Hardliners and 72 percent of
Anti-Woke Conservatives say they trust him more than “all” or “most other
sources.” In other words, Trump has positioned himself as both the narrator and
the hero of his own story.
Politicians typically try to appeal to voters by aligning
their policies with voters’ preferences. Trump satisfies deeper needs. For
those despairing about our country’s direction, he offers hope; for those who
feel disrespected, validation; for those who feel doubtful, clarity.
Trump’s political skills were forged in WWE arenas, on
reality-TV sets, and in the luxury real-estate business—industries that live
and die by their ability to capture attention, simplify narratives, and deliver
emotional impact. These experiences taught him how to establish emotional bonds
with audiences that far outweigh any connection based on shared ideology.
Trump’s detractors may dismiss these bonds as empty or
irrelevant. But for the people who experience them, they are very real. The
relationship Trump has established with tens of millions of Americans offers
them something they cannot attain through conventional politics. In his various
roles, he embodies the reality that they want. This is the source of his power.
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