By Jonah Goldberg
Friday, January 16, 2026
Let’s start with some good old-fashioned public choice
theory. One of the foundational insights of Mancur Olson, the legendary
economist, is the problem of
concentrated benefits and diffuse costs. Take sugar subsidies. They make sugar
slightly more expensive for everybody, costing
the country writ large billions, but the subsidies reap huge profits for a
handful of domestic sugar producers. So every time someone suggests getting rid
of them, the tiny number of Big Sugar barons starts writing checks to
politicians and starts screaming about the dangers of not having a domestic
supply of sugar in wartime.
This dynamic is a feature of all politics. The people who
care—for whatever reason—have more influence than those who don’t. Note: I
didn’t say the people who have the most at stake, because economic interests
aren’t the only thing that motivates people. Go to a school board hearing about
what books school libraries should carry or not carry. Very few of the
attendees have an explicit economic interest. They just care passionately
whether or not the library will make Heather Has Two Mommies or Huckleberry
Finn available to kids. Some of the attendees care so much about such
issues that they show up, even though they don’t have kids. Simply by virtue of
caring a lot, those people have more influence than the thousands of
people who don’t bother showing up.
I am vulnerable to the charge of being irrationally
obsessed with the problem of primaries. My argument is basically a version of
the above dynamic. The people who care the most get to pick the party nominees
for the general election. And because so many states are reliably “red” or
“blue,” getting the nomination of the dominant party means you’ll most likely
win in the general. This dynamic doesn’t just mean that the winning candidate
will have pandered to the primary voters, it also usually means that the losing
candidate will have pandered to their party’s electorate too. Imagine a fictional super-red
district in the Trump years. The candidate who wins the Republican primary is
likely the one who vows to be an ultra-MAGA loyal vassal to Donald Trump. The
candidate who gets the Democratic nomination is likely the candidate who vowed
to “resist” Trump at every turn. All of those urbanites and college-town
professors and artsy types aren’t enough to win the general, but they dominate
the primaries. The result is a general election contest between partisan caricatures.
The general election voter is left with two suboptimal choices. Moreover, the
casual citizen is left with the impression that both parties are defined by
these caricatures. This is one reason the number of self-identified
independents is exploding. A lot of normal people don’t want to associate
themselves with caricatures.
But let’s move away from primaries and talk about the
internet. A lot of people think Twitter/X is the real world. It drives a lot of
the framing of politics, not just by politicians, but by journalists as well.
But nearly 80 percent of Americans aren’t on it. Moreover, the top 10 percent
of users produce roughly 80
to 90 percent of the tweets. More recently Pew found
that 25 percent of Twitter users produce 97 percent of tweets. So however much
you think Twitter drives politics, keep in mind that a tiny number of people
are doing the driving. I say this as an inveterate Twitter user myself: These
are not necessarily the best people. (And this leaves out the role of bots. X
claims that less than 5 percent of accounts are bots. Outside experts put the
number much higher, up
to 80 percent!)
Here at The Dispatch, we spend a lot of time and
energy trying to avoid the hellscape that is the typical comments section. We
haven’t perfected it, but I think our comment sections are far superior to
those of many publications. Even so, it remains the case
that the vast majority of visitors to any news site rarely leave a comment and
most don’t read them.
I’ve long said that there’s a kind of Gresham’s
Law—“bad money drives out good”—to comment sections (though I think I need
to credit the observation to Kevin Williamson). The more dominant the bad
commenters become, the more you chase out the decent commenters.
And I think there’s a Gresham’s Law to democracy as well.
I recently started a fascinating book, Democracy in
Darkness: Secrecy and Transparency in the Age of Revolutions by Katlyn
Marie Carter. It was recommended to me by a historian when I floated my theory
that one of the reasons the French Revolution went off the rails—while the
American Revolution didn’t—was that so much of the French Revolution’s work was
done in public. From the National Assembly to smaller or regional meetings of
politicians and activists, the public was often invited to watch the
deliberations. These attendees, often literally drunk and even more often
figuratively drunk on radical politics, cheered and jeered speakers. The more
successful ones increasingly put a premium on pandering to the audience rather
than trying to persuade their colleagues about the wisest course of action.
Meanwhile, at the American Constitutional Convention, the
delegates posted guards and nailed windows shut (despite the heat and those
heavy outfits) to prevent eavesdroppers. One of the only times George
Washington lost his temper was when he found that someone had dropped their
notes from the meeting on the steps. One attendee recounted that Washington was
so pissed that after he lectured the delegates about the importance of secrecy,
he “quitted the room with a dignity so severe that every Person seemed alarmed.”
Two years later, when French deputies assembled in a
storage hall outside the palace at Versailles to discuss what a French
constitution might look like, they were joined by hundreds of looky-loos. Some suggested expelling the “strangers” so
they could get to work. “Strangers! Are there any among us?” exploded the
intellectual and politician Constantin-François
Chasseboeuf de Volney. “Do they not have the greatest interest in having
their eyes fixed upon you? Have you forgotten that you are all but their
representatives, their proxies?” He went on: “I cannot respect he who seeks to
hide himself in the shadows … the grand day is made to shed light on the truth,
and I am proud to think like the philosopher who said that all his actions
never had anything secret and that he wished that his house was made of glass.”
This sentiment plagued the Revolution from its laudable
liberal beginning to the ultimate Terror phase. Carter writes about the early
meetings of the National Assembly:
The presence of an
audience in the meetings was central to the emergence of a new type of popular
politics. Deputies made their names, and careers, by their orations on the
floor of the assembly. Public speaking became a key component of political
popularity, itself a creation of the revolutionary period. The meetings in the
manège were raucous; onlookers were far from silent spectators and deputies
catered to the crowd when speaking. There was a pervasive concern with the
theatricality of politics in the National Assembly and many deputies were
certainly savvy about playing to the crowd. Committee records reveal that some
deputies may have hired spectators, providing them with cues for when to
applaud.”
It’s an awkward fact for lovers of transparency to
contend with: The American Revolution was a successful revolution in large part
because the really important work was literally conducted in a smoke-filled
room.
The other day I read an absolutely terrible editorial
in the Washington Times about Greenland. But that’s not the important
part. One of the only people quoted was “[f]ormer Belgian politician Dries Van
Langenhove.” I didn’t know who he was. So I looked him up on Wikipedia. He’s a
far right anti-immigration bro. But that’s not important either. What struck me
is that he was elected to Belgium’s lower house of parliament in 2019. He quit
a few years later, saying
in effect that he could have more impact by becoming a Belgian podcast bro.
He may not be wrong. Look at all of the members of our
Congress who’ve quit to become cable hosts and social media activists. Former
Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz comes to mind immediately. In his memoir, Gaetz
recounted how Paul Ryan told him he cared too much about TV. Gaetz mocked the
idea. “Why raise money to advertise on the news channels when I can make the
news?” Gaetz wrote. “And if you aren’t making news, you aren’t governing.”
Gaetz, who literally grew up in the house occupied by Jim Carrey’s character in
The Truman Show, declared that “I know that all the world’s a stage,
especially when we all have cameras with phones.”
I wish I could say that the guy voted most likely to be
featured on To Catch a Predator and who just this week asked a guest on
his OANN show, “Are these intentional fires in Argentina part of a globalist
master plan to create a new Jewish ethnostate in the Americas?” was entirely
wrong—not about the Zionist Deforestation Plan, but the world being a stage.
I don’t want to get into the weeds on the ICE operations
and counter-ICE protests in Minneapolis. Suffice it to say I think it’s a
shameful spectacle, regardless of which “side” you’re on. But it is just a fact
that neither the protesters nor the ICE agents are representative of Americans
generally. I’m not making a moral equivalence or both sides point. Personally,
I am very sympathetic to this guy.
But the whole thing is playing out in front of America with hundreds of videos,
with various degrees of reliability, in a rolling digital Rashomon. Some of the
videos make the protesters look like jackasses, others make the agents look
like thugs. I don’t like jackasses, and I really don’t like thugs, especially
ones with guns and badges.
My only point is that no one benefits from a political,
never mind, a policy debate, between Team Jackass and Team Thug fueled by a
flood of voyeuristic videos. This spectacle feels to me like a metaphor in
miniature of American politics generally. Every politician wants to claim to be
an outsider, siding with looky-loos, the primary voters, the populists, the
pundits. Everyone plays to the crowds for attention and funding. Nobody wants
to hammer shut the windows and do the work of the American people.
The reason the Founders were skeptical of democracy was
that, in their time, democracy was often synonymous with mob rule, because
democracy implied that all of the demos would participate in
decision-making. As the historian Paul
Friedland noted, there’s an inherent paradox in the idea of “representative
democracy.” From “its very inception a contradiction in terms, for the basic
reason that a true democracy precluded representation.” To have representative
government means to delegate authority to some people to make decisions, which
is another way of saying other people won’t make decisions—and that’s
counter to the understanding of what democracy actually meant. That’s why so
many people emphasize the idea of republican government. People are
answerable to “the people” for their decision through elections, but you have
to kick out the looky-loos from the room where the decisions are made.
The new media environment, the primary system, the
incentive structures of fundraising, and the maleducation of the public has
screwed all of that up. We’ve turned government and politics into a giant glass
house as Volney might say. And as a result, everyone is either performing, or
in the case of Minneapolis, they’re staging a reality show. It’s a landscape
where the people who want to live in “interesting times” are the ones who are
showing up in the streets, on social media, and in primaries. They’re the ones
who reap the concentrated benefits of attention, drama, and eternally
sharpening contradictions, and widening
the gyre. And the rest of us are left shaking our heads saying, “It’s not
supposed to be this way.”
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