By Seth Cropsey
Wednesday, January 28, 2026
The capture of Nicolás Maduro — and the accompanying
admirable demonstration of advanced U.S. military proficiency — stand in
contrast to President Trump’s delayed action against Iran: With major U.S.
naval forces committed elsewhere, U.S. options are constrained. Yet just as the
Navy needs more ships, not fewer, the service plans to retire the USS Nimitz. The 50-year-old carrier’s
final deployment included stints in the Indo-Pacific and Middle East, providing
the U.S. with flexibility and deterrence credibility against Iran during its
war with Israel this summer.
Pulling a key warship from the fleet just as the U.S.
needs even more combat power indicates that the Navy is already losing a war of
attrition — not against an enemy, but against its own bureaucracy. The Navy
offered no explanation for why USS Nimitz — like the first
nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, USS Enterprise — could not have
remained in service for one year past its scheduled date of retirement.
Righting the ship demands not only the significantly larger defense budget Trump has floated, but
a serious cultural change in the service that puts combat readiness back at its core.
The recent termination of the Constellation-class
frigate, in a decades-long cycle of failed designs and shifting
requirements, is a blunder that immediately preceded the USS Nimitz’s
untimely inactivation. An abundance of operational, acquisition, and leadership
mistakes further underscores the point. In the past year, the aircraft carrier
USS Harry S. Truman strike group lost two aircraft overboard and collided with a merchant vessel.
Insufficient training, manning, and communications were responsible, according
to the official investigation, the same causes that were identified in the 2017 collisions of two U.S. destroyers with merchant ships in
Asian waters.
These operational debacles mirror the needlessly convoluted process of designing and building
ships. The Navy’s late November cancellation of its Constellation-class
frigate is but one of several expensive, delayed, and finally aborted
combatant-ship construction programs. More importantly, the mistakes indicate a
crisis within the service most critical to deter and defeat China in Asia’s
waters. If the Trump administration is serious about deterrence, the Navy
requires a shot in the arm, starting with both a prolonged shipbuilding budget
boost and a real strategy.
China’s combat fleet currently exceeds the United States’
by 83 ships: 370 People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) vessels to 287 for the
U.S. Navy. The PLAN possesses a coherent, clear strategy. It combines thousands
of long-range missiles, land-based naval aviation, surface combatants and
submarines, dual-purpose merchant and fishing ships, cyberwarfare, and
satellite reconnaissance to keep U.S. naval forces out of a thousand-mile
bubble extending from China’s coast. Beyond that range, the U.S. struggles to launch
operations in the Western Pacific. American naval planners recognized this as
far back as the 2010s, when the Navy released its Air-Sea Battle operational
concept. But there is little evidence that they have any idea how to surmount
today’s challenge.
Last year, President Trump proposed the creation of a
White House shipbuilding office and said that the U.S. must again make ships “very fast and very soon.” Nearly a year into his second
administration, the U.S. has made little progress toward this goal. Although
the administration’s requested increase of seven surface ships and submarines,
alongside a dozen needed support vessels, is a positive step, most of these
will not be completed for years. China built 30 surface combatants, of which
half were large ships — including cruisers, destroyers, and an aircraft
carrier — in 2023 alone.
While the U.S. Navy has embraced the idea of fielding a
large fleet of small crewed and uncrewed ships to frustrate an enemy’s
targeting, the service gives off mixed signals about resourcing and executing
this strategy. It is phasing out the Littoral Combat Ship (LCS), a design
conceived in the late 1990s, because its combatant abilities are insufficient,
while its costs and delays are excessive.
Therefore, the Navy still wanted a smaller warship. It
initiated another program, the FFG(X), in 2017, deciding on the
European-designed FREMM-class hull in 2020. Redesignated the
Constellation-class frigate program, costs and delays owing wholly to the Navy’s
changing requirements during the ship’s construction upended the program. Navy
Secretary John Phelan announced in late November that the Navy would terminate
the program after building two ships of the 25 initially planned. Hence the Constellation
blunder replaced the LCS blunder, leaving the Navy no closer to a fleet of
agile surface combatants.
Adding to the confusion is the idea of a very large
cruiser — or “battleship,” as Trump terms it — with far greater displacement
than the replacement for current cruisers, which, because of their age, are
expensive to maintain. This concept has operational merit: A large warship of
some 30,000-plus tons can carry more weapons, including
hypersonic missiles, and operate with smaller warships to target Chinese
vessels from afar. But the concept ignores industrial realities. The Navy has
only a handful of yards that could build such warships, all of which are booked
with carriers, large amphibious ships, and other major combatants. Building a
new yard would take years at best. Designing a new combatant of this size and
sophistication will take no less than six years before construction can begin.
Putting aside industrial constraints, it is entirely
unclear what a mixture of many small and several very large naval combatants
might look like operationally. The Chief of Naval Operations’ staff for force
development (N7) has been studying the question — very quietly. It is as silent
as the Navy’s civilian and uniformed leaders about strategy and the mix of
vessels to execute it.
The Pentagon has sought to address cost overruns, delays,
and bureaucratic non-accountability by creating new positions that, for
example, place accountability for building submarines in the hands of a single
executive — a reasonable idea, except for the fact that responsibility already
rests in the persons of the Navy secretary and the chief of naval operations.
Would a two-star flag officer or civilian equivalent thus negate or oppose the
authority of current military service leadership? This is a prescription for
bewilderment, not accountability.
But it points to the larger problem, and it is
particularly acute for the Navy because of its uncertain primacy in a conflict
with China, which geography dictates must be chiefly naval. The U.S. Navy is
invisible to the country it defends today. It has no clear strategy. It cannot
explain what it is doing. Its secretary and undersecretary have been at odds
with each other. There is no articulated connection between what the Navy wants
to buy and how its purchases will defeat potential foes. A hard course correction
is needed.
The Navy must articulate a maritime strategy that is an
integral part of the United States’ national security strategy, and the
resulting document must guide the composition of the nation’s fleet. Congress
should insist on delivery of the strategy before the end of 2026. Sailors
should leave their staff jobs and desk exercises to return to training at sea
and in the air. Further, no changes should be made to ships under construction
unless the secretary of the Navy approves them. Untangling the nest of overlapping
authorities that superintend the processes between a ship’s conception and its
commissioning with the appointment of a two-star officer will exacerbate, not
solve, problems. The Navy must retake control of its procurement, including
executive line authority and accountability, and the ability to counter
bureaucratic impediments.
Finally, the next National Defense Authorization Act must
include a major shot in the arm for shipbuilding. The Congressional Budget
Office estimated
that the Navy would need around $40 billion per year to resource its 2025
shipbuilding plan. Unless the Navy decides on a radically smaller fleet, this
will be necessary for any naval recovery.
The Navy is this maritime nation’s sine qua non for
preventing crises on the Eurasian landmass from reaching our hemisphere. The
massive volume of our exports and imports that transit international waters is
protected by the Navy. Protecting our economy and security is impossible
without a strong, global U.S. naval force. The dysfunction into which the U.S.
Navy has fallen since the Cold War’s end must be reversed.
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