Is Anybody There?

By Noah Rothman

Monday, September 23, 2024

 

When it comes to the war in the Gaza Strip, the Biden-Harris administration has precisely one idea. “Keep f***ing trying,” Joe Biden reportedly told his advisers at the close of a recent meeting focused on securing a cease-fire. More talks are scheduled between Biden officials and their regional counterparts this week, Politico revealed, “but there are few expectations that an agreement could be reached soon.” After all, there is “great skepticism” that either Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu or Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar are “anxious to make a deal,” the latter’s rejection of every cease-fire proposal Biden and his allies have put to him (in contrast with Bibi, who accepted Biden’s terms) apparently notwithstanding. But the Biden team is operating on the assumption they are dealing with a recalcitrant negotiating partner in Sinwar. In fact, they may not have a negotiating partner at all.

 

“Diplomats involved in cease-fire negotiations in Doha, Qatar, say that Hamas representatives insist they need Mr. Sinwar’s input before they make major decisions in the talks,” the New York Times reported in late August. “As the most respected Hamas leader, he is the only person who can ensure that whatever is decided in Doha is implemented in Gaza.” Not only was Sinwar the most “respected” terrorist leader, he also had the distinct advantage of being alive — something that could not be said of Ismail Haniyeh or dozens of other Hamas commanders after nearly a year of war. That asset may no longer be in Sinwar’s possession.

 

Rumors swirled over the weekend that Sinwar may have been injured or killed in Israeli airstrikes on targets inside Gaza. The Israeli security establishment has not been able to confirm that, nor were recent strikes informed by intelligence on Sinwar’s location. If he is not dead or incapacitated, Sinwar “has been out of touch with his middlemen who handled hostage negotiations and messaging — who have been out of touch for a longer period than usual,” the Jerusalem Post reported. That dispatch holds out the possibility that Israeli sources are promoting this rumor to convince Hamas fighters to lay down their arms, and it notes that there have been previous whispers of Sinwar’s death that turned out to be false. Nevertheless, Hamas’s leader is incommunicado.

 

Where does that leave the Biden-Harris team’s obsession with securing a cease-fire? Where that objective has always been: in limbo. It was always unlikely that the American administration would convince Israelis to abandon their goal of neutralizing Hamas as a political and military force on the Strip, and it was even less likely that Hamas would peacefully submit itself to Israeli justice. But now we cannot rule out the prospect that Biden, the Egyptians, the Qataris, and the Israelis are negotiating with a spent force — sending messages out into the ether bound for no recipient.

 

If Biden-Harris administration had an ounce of dexterity or creativity, it might take political advantage of the evidence that suggests Israel’s victory in the Gaza Strip — an outcome this White House insists it supports — is at hand. But it doesn’t. We can expect both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris to insist that Israel spare Hamas from its triumph in the war that began last October 7. They have to say something about the war, and it seems that is all they’ve got.