The GOP Should Be Winning

By Noah Rothman

Wednesday, September 25, 2024

 

Almost every metric by which Gallup pollsters gauge the political landscape currently favors the GOP.

 

Republicans enjoy an edge over Democrats when voters are asked about the party with which they identify. At 48 percent to the Democratic Party’s 45 percent, Republicans have not had a similar advantage at this point in a presidential-election cycle since 2004 — when Democrats and Republicans were tied at 47 percent apiece.

 

Donald Trump has long been thought of as better able to manage the issues most salient in this race: the economy in general, price instability, and the border crisis. But Gallup found that Trump’s superiority on the issues extends more broadly to his party. Voters believe the GOP is better equipped “to handle [the] most important problem” facing the country — however respondents define that for themselves — by 46 to 41 percent.

 

Voters are deeply dissatisfied with the direction in which the country is headed. Their confidence in the performance of the economy under the Biden-Harris administration is low. The outgoing Democratic president is still deeply unpopular, and the GOP is viewed more favorably than Democrats by the narrowest margin. Having experienced the bitter fruits of Joe Biden’s activist administration, a staggering 55 to 41 percent would prefer it if the government did “less” than “more.” A majority say the Republican Party is “better able to keep America prosperous,” and 54 percent say the GOP is more likely to keep America safe from international threats.”

 

Given these tailwinds, the GOP cannot possibly blow this year’s elections. Right? Don’t bet on it.

 

Republicans enjoyed overwhelming advantages over their Democratic counterparts on the most relevant issue to most voters in the 2022 midterms: the economy. That advantage was reflected in the GOP’s statistically significant edge over Democrats on the generic ballot test. And that advantage did materialize at the polls. A Pew Research Center post-election analysis found that 71 percent of Donald Trump’s voters went to the polls that year compared with 67 percent of Biden’s voters.

 

But the 2022 midterms are not remembered for the GOP’s overperformance in line with the fundamentals of the race that favored their party. Rather, Republicans largely failed to capitalize on the assets provided by the political environment. Poor candidate selection deprived Republicans of victories on the senatorial level, and the GOP retook the House majority by the barest of margins after gaining only nine seats in the lower chamber of Congress. Save Florida, where Democrats were wiped out, the party in power successfully defended many of its most embattled members against the anti-incumbent sentiment sweeping the country. Democrats even took some territory away from the GOP.

 

The issue set has evolved from 2022, but that anti-incumbent mood persists. Given the favorable breeze filling Republicans’ sails, it’s a testament to Donald Trump’s power to polarize the electorate that he’s running (at best) even with the sitting vice president. What’s more, with Senate races in so many states in which Republicans are competitive (Arizona, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, and Wisconsin), this is a map that should provide the GOP with a bigger yield than the one-seat majority they’re currently favored to win.

 

With the fundamentals so at odds with the prospect of Democratic victories, we should expect to see Republicans performing better in public opinion surveys than they are. Perhaps November’s results will demonstrate that this condition is more a polling problem than a party problem. But if past is prologue, it would be unwise to rule out the possibility that the Republican Party is set to sacrifice yet another series of winnable races.