Supporting Ukraine Is Not a Political Risk for Republicans

By Gabriel Scheinmann

Friday, September 20, 2024

 

‘That’s why you play the game.” We hear the polls, the commentary, and the endless predictions, but as the old sports adage reminds us, you can analyze all you want — what truly matters are the results on the scoreboard. And now, the results are in, loud and clear: Every Republican member of Congress who voted in favor of military aid to Ukraine and is seeking reelection has emerged victorious in the primaries. They will all be on the general-election ballot this November.

 

In April 2024, 101 GOP House members and 31 GOP senators voted in favor of Ukraine aid. Of those, 90 representatives and four senators sought reelection this year. With the exception of the Louisiana 1st (Steve Scalise) and 4th (Mike Johnson) districts, where GOP primaries will be held on November 5 and general elections on December 7, 93 secured their primary victories. (In Washington, which employs a “jungle primary” system, Representative Dan Newhouse finished second and will be on the ballot again in November.)

 

For over two years, Republicans were repeatedly warned by pundits and critics that supporting military aid to Ukraine would be political suicide. They were told it would cost them their seats. As a result of these warnings, support for such appropriations in Congress began to wane. In April, for the first time, a majority of House Republicans voted against Ukraine aid, while Senate Republicans still supported the aid by a two-to-one margin. Some in the “vote no, hope yes” caucus privately backed the aid but, fearing for their political futures, cast votes against it, hoping it would still pass.

 

Then the tide shifted. After opposing Ukraine aid in 2022 and 2023, Speaker of the House Mike Johnson not only supported the latest package in April but also skillfully steered its passage through the House. Contrast this with Kevin McCarthy, who, despite his consistent support for Ukraine aid as minority leader in 2022, refused to bring a Ukraine-aid vote to the floor after he became speaker in 2023 and was subsequently ousted by his conference in favor of Johnson. Johnson, initially an opponent of aid, recognized the critical importance of defeating Russia for America’s interests once he assumed the speakership. His leadership has ensured that aid continues. And unlike McCarthy, Johnson shows no signs of having his gavel taken from him — his tenure has already outlasted McCarthy’s. Despite the threats against Johnson for allowing the vote, he seems not to have paid any price for it.

 

Despite all the talk of an isolationist shift within the Republican Party, voters have shown otherwise. While some polls indicated waning Republican support for Ukraine aid, a majority still backed it. Many Republicans feared backlash in their districts, but it never materialized. As a result, in future votes on additional funds to counter Russia, we may see the Republican vote total rise as the “vote no, hope yes” caucus comes back in line with the clear will of the voters.

 

Although Senator J. D. Vance, a vocal critic of Ukraine aid, is the GOP nominee for vice president, former president Trump has never explicitly opposed the aid. His quiet acquiescence and partnership with Speaker Johnson were pivotal in ensuring the aid’s passage in the spring.

 

All of this is crucial for two reasons.

 

First, future decisions about additional military aid to Ukraine are inevitable. Because the Biden administration continues to falter, failing to fully commit to Ukraine’s victory and unwilling to apply the necessary economic and military pressure on Russia, Ukraine will need more material support as the winter months approach. Republican members should take heart knowing that social-media noise does not reflect where GOP primary voters actually stand.

 

Second, durable support for Ukraine aid among Republican voters has implications for the U.S. approach to other allies in precarious straits. While the Ukraine-aid vote faced significant opposition from some within the GOP, it’s worth noting that 21 GOP House members also voted against the Israel supplemental, and 34 opposed the Taiwan supplemental. Though these situations differ, the principle remains unchanged: aiding free nations with financial and material support — but not troops — in their defensive wars against American adversaries. Israel and Taiwan are geopolitically crucial free nations under threat. Those who genuinely support these U.S. allies but fear political backlash should look at the primary success of congressional Republicans who backed Ukraine aid as evidence that they have nothing to fear.