The High Stakes of Israel’s Looming War with Hezbollah

By Kyle Sajoyan

Sunday, September 15, 2024

 

The world is bracing for war between Israel and Hezbollah, the Iran-sponsored Shiite jihadist group, which has been firing at Israel from Lebanon since the day after Hamas’s horrific attack on October 7. Since the Hamas-perpetrated massacre, Hezbollah has fired more than 7,500 rockets into Israel, resulting in appalling tragedies like the attack on the Druze town Majdal Shams, which killed twelve children on a soccer field. The Biden administration has focused thus far on averting “escalation” in the region, which manifests as U.S. pressure against decisive Israeli military action to counter Hezbollah. But as the terrorist group continues to launch aggressive rocket and suicide–drone attacks, killing dozens of Israeli soldiers and displacing over 60,000 civilians from their homes in the north, Israel may be left with no other option than to act militarily. The United States must come to terms with the facts: Hezbollah’s goal is to destroy the State of Israel. Each step that Hezbollah takes toward this goal threatens American national-security interests.

 

Rather than retaliatory, tit-for-tat strikes targeting individual terrorists, Israel may have to launch a full-scale military campaign to degrade Hezbollah. The scale of a war between Israel and the militant group will be larger than the conflict with Hamas and is likely to rival previous regional conflicts the IDF has fought since the 2006 Lebanon War. Major Israeli cities would likely come under fire from Hezbollah’s massive rocket arsenal, while Israeli air attacks would devastate southern Lebanon. Both the Lebanese people, who are at the mercy of Hezbollah as the country’s de facto government, and Israelis would suffer greatly. If war between Israel and Hezbollah erupts, however, it would benefit America for Israel to prevail and for Hezbollah to be seriously depleted as a result.

 

An Israeli victory in a war with Hezbollah would militarily weaken the Islamic Republic of Iran’s strongest proxy, thereby decreasing Tehran’s deterrent power and allowing the U.S. a freer hand to act against Iran’s regional ambitions. The importance of Hezbollah to Iran’s grand strategy demonstrates why degrading the organization serves U.S. interests. The Lebanese terror group is the crown jewel of what Iran calls the “axis of resistance,” a network of regional proxies that are instruments in Iran’s strategic objectives of destroying Israel, expelling the U.S. from the Middle East, and establishing Tehran’s regional hegemony. The Islamic Republic’s ability to project power and ensure the violent expulsion of the U.S. from the region in favor of Iranian domination depends largely on the strength of its proxies.

 

The sums Iran directs to Hezbollah also attest to the terror group’s strategic value to the regime. Of the estimated $16 billion given to Iran’s proxies from 2012 to 2020, 35 percent went to Hezbollah, accounting for $700 million annually. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah admitted that his organization’s “budget, everything it eats and drinks, its weapons and rockets” come from Iran.

 

Under Iran’s tutelage, Nasrallah has turned Hezbollah from a mere Shiite militia to “the world’s most heavily armed non-state actor,” according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). It has amassed a massive rocket arsenal estimated to number from 120,000 to 200,000, with some missiles capable of striking targets deep in Israel, including the three largest cities, Haifa, Tel Aviv, and Jerusalem, and other population centers. Additionally, the terror group wields a substantial military force, with between 30,000 and 50,000 regular fighters among its ranks.

 

If Israeli airpower were to degrade Hezbollah’s capabilities in a full-scale war, Iran’s most powerful proxy would be severely weakened and its strategic value to Iran significantly diminished. Israel and the U.S. would gain greater freedom of action to confront Tehran’s aggressive use of other proxies and to constrain its nuclear program. Under the “axis of resistance” strategy, Iran has successfully deterred the U.S. from pursuing a more hardline stance against the regime, evidenced by the current administration’s continued attempts at diplomacy to avert a wider regional war. If Israel can reduce the Hezbollah threat through a military campaign, a large share of Iran’s deterrent power will become nonexistent.

 

Furthermore, Israel has shown itself able and willing to launch major military operations to degrade the Lebanese terror group. On August 25, the Israeli Air Force thwarted a potentially devastating attack by Hezbollah with a successful air strike in southern Lebanon, destroying thousands of rockets and missile sites. This impressive display of Israeli intelligence capabilities and military power demonstrates that Washington has an ally more than capable of defending itself if allowed to do so.

 

Hezbollah’s genocidal ideology toward the world’s only Jewish state, and America’s strongest ally in the Middle East, makes its degradation vital for both Israel and the U.S. The organization’s 1985 manifesto calls for Israel to be “obliterated” as the “vanguard of the United States” in the Islamic world. Given that Hezbollah’s very existence is predicated on the destruction of the State of Israel, it has zero interest in diplomacy or peace with Jerusalem.

 

Jerusalem is Washington’s strongest ally in the Middle East in both defense cooperation and intelligence sharing. Israel has proven invaluable to regional stability and integration with the Arab world through the Abraham Accords. Hence the U.S. should welcome a military campaign by Israel to weaken an enemy that seeks its destruction.

 

The Israel–Hezbollah crisis represents a vital inflection point for U.S. policy-makers. Will the United States stand strong with its ally to degrade Iran’s most dangerous proxy, or will it continue to try to head off a war that is likely to occur regardless? Israel’s current strategic position, with Iran and Hezbollah ready to inflict unimaginable suffering on the Israeli people, is untenable. It is vital for the U.S. to remain steadfast in its support for Israel while doing everything it can to help Jerusalem weaken the Iranian hydra.