By Mark Antonio Wright
Friday, August 23, 2024
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Let me stipulate for the record: The American press is an
embarrassment. Journalists are being unfair in their coverage. CNN and Politico
and the New York Times and the Associated Press and NBC Nightly News
with Lester Holt and NPR News are hyping Kamala Harris as the second coming
and putting a thumb, two hands, and a 45-pound dumbbell on the scales in an
attempt to prop her up.
It also doesn’t matter. None of it is remotely decisive.
The reason why the Republican Party is, at the moment, on
track to lose the 2024 election is that the Republican Party is a minority
coalition that picked a very unpopular 78-year-old retread as its candidate.
Yes, this summer when the public was faced with the
choice between the Democrats’ unpopular, probably senile, octogenarian Joe
Biden and the Republicans’ unpopular, definitely nuts, septuagenarian Donald
Trump, it seemed like the American people would reluctantly go with Trump.
But at the same time, American voters for two years
running had loudly and repeatedly told both parties, pollsters, and anyone who
would listen that they preferred a different set of choices. The dominant
emotion that most Americans felt about the coming election was dread.
And then, in a remarkable turn of events, the Democratic Party gave Americans
another option: Kamala Harris.
Is Harris an ideal candidate? Is she an incredibly
talented orator? Is she deft on her feet and nimble in debate? Is she a famous
wonk? Does she have a long track record of competence at the state and federal
level? Has she been scrutinized by a tough no-nonsense press and come out
stronger on the other side? No, of course not — but she’s an alternative to
Trump/Biden, and that’s probably going to be enough.
The avalanche of “Did You Know That Kamala Harris Likes
to Cook?” fluff stories in the New York Times and the embarrassing “Doug Emhoff, Modern-Day Sex Symbol” pieces in the Washington
Post are not going to change the fundamental dynamic of this election. And
that dynamic is this: The GOP electoral coalition is the smaller, weaker
coalition. It’s lost the popular vote seven out of nine times in my lifetime
(I’m 36). It has lost the Electoral College three out of the last four cycles.
Conservatives might not be very eager to hear this, but “We the People” are
mostly Democrats.
Does that make it impossible for Republicans to win this
time around? Certainly not. Republicans won sweeping victories in 2010, 2014,
and 2016.
Notably, however, the Republicans were outsiders in all
three of those big election-year wins, and the public was putting the GOP in
power as a check against Democrats.
Donald Trump won by a razor’s edge in 2016 and yet has
carried on as though he was given a huge national mandate and enjoys major
popular support when there’s zero evidence for that proposition. The Trump-led
Republican Party got crushed in 2018, Trump himself lost in 2020, and
Republicans underperformed in 2022. Despite a relatively strong economy during
his presidency, Trump has never been popular. According to Gallup, Trump never topped 49 percent in his approval
rating during his presidency. Not once. And it was often much lower. During his
shambolic initial response to the pandemic and his regular appearances on The
Trump Show, those lunatic pandemic-era daily press briefings, his approval
rating fell to 39 percent. After rising a bit to 46 percent during the stretch
run of the 2020 election (enough, of course, to still lose), Trump’s approval
crashed to 36 percent after the January 6 riot.
Moreover, during the current 2024 cycle, Trump has never
been close to popular, even when it looked like he might defeat the politically
mortally wounded Biden campaign and regain the presidency after last June’s
debate. In mid July, before Biden dropped out and while Trump was building what
looked like a solid lead in the polls, Trump’s approval rating stood at 42 percent. Almost 54
percent of Americans told pollsters that they disapproved of Trump!
So why is anyone surprised that, with the American people
having been given another option — an option that isn’t Joe Biden, isn’t Donald
Trump, and isn’t a million years old — Trump is showing such weakness?
For twelve years, Donald Trump’s version of the
Republican Party has acted like it’s a majority party when talking to itself,
while its political and electoral strategy was always limited to “How can we
squeeze by, by the hair of our chinny-chin-chin, in a few key swing states?”
Yes, again, Trump may yet win this November. He could
slip by in Pennsylvania and the Upper Midwest by a few thousand votes. Harris
may falter. But even if Trump wins, Republicans should still understand that he
will take power with a small, weak coalition that somehow managed to thread the
needle.
Trump isn’t losing because Kamala Harris is being hyped
by the press and fluffed up to kingdom come. He isn’t losing because the press
is being unfair to him. He’s losing because he’s a weak, unpopular,
undisciplined candidate running at the head of a weak, minority electoral
coalition. That’s the truth, whether anyone wants to hear it or not.
The question for Republicans is: Are they ready to stop
whining and complaining about the press and work to build a true majority
coalition — like the ones they used to form — topped by young, charismatic,
winsome candidates and built to win big, crushing majorities that turn blue
states purple and purple states red? Because if they are, I’m not seeing any
evidence for it. Are you?
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