By Noah Rothman
Tuesday, August 27, 2024
It’s easy to see why those who invested their hopes in
the theory that Donald Trump could engineer a “great realignment” are excited by the addition of Robert F.
Kennedy Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard to the GOP presidential candidate’s roster of
endorsees. The migration of these erstwhile Democrats into the Republican camp
vindicates what they always saw as Trump’s potential to remake the political
landscape. But Trump’s Democratic opponents don’t seem especially upset by this
development.
Both Kennedy and Gabbard were politically homeless well
before Trump folded them under his wing, but not because they reluctantly
finalized the divorce from a party that long ago left them behind. They got the
boot.
Kennedy attempted, in his own manic way, to insert
himself into Democratic politics by seeking the party’s presidential
nomination. But the Democrats, who have demonstrated enviable institutional
disregard for the loudest minority factions in its ranks, declined to sanction debates between the incumbent president and his
would-be challenger (who only ever polled in the low double-digits among Democrats). RFK took the hint and
withdrew from Democratic politics.
In 2020, Gabbard declined to run for a fifth term in the
House seat she had occupied since 2013. She claimed her presidential campaign
demanded all her attention, but Gabbard had courted a contentious relationship with her fellow Hawaii Democrats and drawn a formidable primary challenger, state senator Kai Kahele,
who would succeed her in Congress. They didn’t leave the Democrats; the
Democrats left them.
And for good reason. There’s no question that both
Gabbard and Kennedy enliven a particular sort of voter who is deeply suspicious
of the status quo, American institutions and their stewards, and the
enterprises tasked with holding the powerful to account. This is also the type
of voter to whom Trump appeals — or, perhaps, appealed before he became
the unquestioned leader of one of those powerful American institutions.
The theory behind this unlikely alliance is that, by
sideling up alongside these two figures, Trump reclaims his title as champion
of those who believe the American civic compact is corrupt and sclerotic. There
are no tradeoffs in this theory. Trump’s gain is the Democratic Party’s loss,
even if Democrats themselves seem not to recognize it.
Maybe. But there is another side to that coin that has
gone relatively unremarked upon. Embracing the paranoia these two one-time
Democrats court — an agitated unease that leads them both to conclude that
America and Americans are the problem — is not a risk-free proposition.
Let’s be honest: RFK Jr. is a crank, and eccentricities all seem to orbit around the
assumption that there are malign forces at work in America devoted to meting
out harm merely to delight in the suffering of others. He has alleged that
Wi-Fi signals cause “leaky brain” and cancer. He alleged that a secret cabal is
putting chemicals in the water supply that cause children to identify as the
opposite sex. His anti-vaccination activism long predates Covid. Indeed, he maintains that vaccinations,
including wildly successful immunizations like those that prevent Measles,
Mumps, and Rubella, are to blame for a suite of underdiagnosed maladies. The
only reason why anyone remains skeptical of Kennedy’s assertions, in his
estimation, is that some nefarious they are holding back the
evidence that would vindicate him.
Kennedy’s conspiratorial instincts seem rooted in the
proposition that a small number of malevolent Americans have pulled the wool
over the eyes of an impossibly larger number of Americans. The common
denominator is that Americans are the problem — either because they’re too
cowed and complacent to know what’s good for them or because they’re
consciously wicked.
Kennedy maintains that his support for Trump was
reciprocated with the promise that he would serve on Trump’s transition team, helping to “pick the people who
will be running the government.” The only source of solace for those of us who
shudder at the prospect is that all the players involved in this tale are
inveterate liars. Small blessings.
If Kennedy defaults to the most uncharitable assumptions
about this country on the home front, Gabbard’s instinct is to accuse Americans
of deliberately sacrificing U.S. interests abroad.
Gabbard served her country in uniform — admirably, by all
accounts. But that’s why she had to know that, when she made her 2017 sojourn
to Damascus to meet with blood-soaked Syrian despot Bashar al-Assad, she was
lending legitimacy to an actor who had facilitated the slaughter of her fellow
soldiers. From the outset of the Iraq War, Assad’s security personnel
facilitated the introduction of would-be jihadists into the country with the
aim of killing U.S. troops. It provided sanctuary to Saddam Hussein loyalists
and “emerged as an important organizational and coordination hub for elements
of the former Iraqi regime,” according to the Pentagon. Coalition forces
conducted several raids into Syria in this period because the mission in Iraq
demanded it.
If Gabbard was aware of this, she subordinated that
knowledge to her desire to allege that the West had lied about Assad and its
primary patron, Russian president Vladimir Putin. She maintained that the U.S.
had no evidence the Syrian regime was deploying chemical weapons against
civilians (they did). She alleged that only the Assad regime and its
Russian allies were attacking the jihadist insurgents that somehow managed to
survive their mutual assault on Western-backed Syrian rebels (Russia focused on
attacking rebel strongholds like Homs and Aleppo while the Assad regime purchased
oil from the incipient Islamic State). Through it all, Gabbard professed
deep concern that the West’s response to Russian aggression and foreign
intervention could spark “nuclear war,” but the problem is always the response
to aggression and never the aggression itself.
Indeed, in the years since, Gabbard has continued to
retail the dubious narratives promulgated by the Kremlin — among them, the debunked notion that the U.S. maintained biological warfare laboratories
developing “deadly pathogens” inside Ukraine. The implication being
that the existence of these facilities compelled Moscow to engage in an
uncommonly brutal war of conquest and subjugation. When challenged, Gabbard did
what the “just asking questions” crowd always does — retreat to a more
defensible Bailey. “What she has said is simply fact: there are US-financed
‘biolabs’ in Ukraine,” said a Gabbard spokesperson. Sure thing. If Gabbard had only meant
that the U.S. helped sponsor medical research in Ukraine, it would have only
been a paranoid non-sequitur. The fact that Gabbard’s intention only suddenly
became murky and misunderstood when her allegations encountered a skeptical
audience is revealing.
Gabbard, too, defaults to the belief that the U.S. is the
problem. It is, if not the sole arbiter of events outside its borders, the
malign force whose influence compels the reciprocal actions of others all over
the globe. These are the “blame America first” Democrats Jean Kirkpatrick warned us
about, and the Republican Party’s titular leader has now taken them under his
wing.
There may be a price to pay for abandoning all discretion
in the effort to craft a durable coalition of disaffected voters. Yes, Gabbard
and Kennedy speak to an unenthusiastic subset of voters who don’t believe
either party is capable of producing meaningful (read, radical) change. But
their absorption into the Republican coalition risks alienating a galactically
larger host of voters who turn out to vote for establishmentarian figures
regular basis.
Those voters are not paranoiacs who see their fellow
citizens and the country of their birth as the locus of evil in the modern
world. They vote on pocketbook concerns, not their desire to see the
establishments that have scorned them over the years brought low. They may not
trust the elite institutions that have done their utmost to sacrifice their own
credibility, but they don’t believe Putin is the real victim, the water supply
is glutted with mind-altering chemicals, and the only thing we have to fear is
their neighbors.
Trump is most certainly building a new sort of coalition.
And maybe, given the tightest of margins in the swing states, the voters he is
courting will deliver him victory. Or maybe they won’t. Either way, these
overtures come at the cost of lending credence to two rogues who don’t deserve
it.
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