What Is Biden Waiting For?

By Noah Rothman

Tuesday, January 30, 2024

 

One of the better-known of Iran’s cat’s-paws in the Middle East is attempting to weasel its way out of the consequences that tend to accompany the killing of American soldiers by declaring victory and retreating:

I guess it’s worth a try, but it’s hard to imagine that anyone would be convinced by timidity — even the sort dressed up in bluster. But why would Kataib Hezbollah know that? They shouldn’t have been granted the luxury of the time it took them to draft this pusillanimous statement. Its operatives should be too busy digging the bodies of their comrades in arms out of the rubble. And yet, they’re not.

 

President Joe Biden has reportedly decided on the retaliatory measures he will take against Iran’s Shiite militias and, perhaps, Iran itself. That retaliation will reportedly come in stages. As Jim Geraghty noted, the wisdom of Biden’s addiction to telegraphing his punches is questionable, particularly when it comes to the militias directly responsible for the attack on Tower 22 that killed three Americans and injured scores more. There is no strategic ambiguity there. If the Americans are coming at all, they’re coming for them first. But why should Kataib Hezbollah believe that Biden’s response would be a swift one?

 

He didn’t respond swiftly against Houthi aggression. He treated the drones and rockets raining down on naval and commercial marine traffic in the region like a nuisance for three months. He didn’t respond swiftly to Shiite-militia attacks on U.S. positions in Iraq and Syria. U.S. and coalition forces came under attack twelve times, producing dozens of injuries before Biden deigned to respond. And then he did only in a “narrowly tailored” fashion designed to convey America’s prohibitive fear of an escalating conflict.

 

Given Biden’s obvious distaste for punitive — much less preemptive — strikes against America’s adversaries, maybe Kataib Hezbollah thinks that he can lulled into a false sense of security. It’s insane, but it’s not exactly crazy.